专家交流 - 钨价何去何从 20250824 摘要 全球钨需求稳定增长，年增长率约 1.2%，主要驱动力来自高端制造业， 特别是航天航空和军工领域，每年消耗约 11 万吨纯金属量的钨，相当 于 22 万吨标准吨的钨精矿。 中国是全球钨供应的主导者，提供约 80%的需求量。2024 年中国原生 钨精矿产量为 13.35 万吨，远不能满足市场需求，再生钨原料成为重要 补充，部分工厂再生物料使用比例已提升至 30%。 近期小金属市场供需变化导致钨价迅猛上涨，55 度钨精矿价格已达每吨 22 万元，APT 价格接近 33 万元，创历史新高，较 2024 年全年平均价 位上涨超过 50%。 钨价上涨的主要原因包括：自然资源部减少钨配额，商务部和海关总署 加强出口管控，国际市场涨价显著，以及俄乌战争等地缘政治冲突导致 军工需求预期增加，上游企业利润较高。 中国政府加强打击废旧金属走私力度，减少了废旧金属供应，加剧了市 场紧张局势。军工领域对钨的直接和间接消费需求均显著增加，大规模 军备竞赛将进一步推高需求。 Q&A 请简要介绍钨行业的产业链结构。 钨行业的产业链分为上游、中游和下游。上游包括采矿业、选矿业以及废物回 收加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kunshan Changying Hard Material Technology Co., Ltd., is attempting to list on the Beijing Stock Exchange after previously failing to list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to new regulatory requirements and declining net profits despite revenue growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the reporting period (2022-2024) was 822 million, 881 million, and 972 million yuan, respectively, while net profit declined from 84.09 million to 63.49 million yuan [2]. - The gross profit margin for the main business decreased from 22.78% in 2022 to 19.38% in 2024, a drop of 3.4 percentage points [2]. Raw Material Costs - The price of tungsten carbide powder, a key raw material, increased by 2.49% and 7.65% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, due to rising tungsten ore mining costs and supply chain pressures [2][3]. - The company reported that the prices of major tungsten products rose by 40% cumulatively by 2025 [1][3]. Supplier Concentration - The top five suppliers accounted for 70% of the company's procurement, with the first two suppliers, Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten, representing 43.3% of the procurement amount in 2024 [3][4]. - The company does not rely on any single supplier for more than 50% of its procurement, but many suppliers are also competitors [4]. Accounts Receivable Issues - The overdue accounts receivable rate surged to 39.72% by the end of 2024, an increase of 11.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][7]. - The balance of accounts receivable at the end of each reporting period was 173 million, 231 million, and 286 million yuan, representing 21.04%, 26.26%, and 29.38% of revenue, respectively [6][7]. Market Conditions - The company faces a challenging market environment with weak downstream demand and increased competition, making it difficult to pass on rising raw material costs to customers [6]. - The overall revenue and profit margins in the cutting tool industry are declining, with a reported industry revenue of 107.7 billion yuan in 2024, down 1.8% year-on-year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the long-term quotes from major tungsten manufacturers have significantly increased, suggesting a continued upward trend in tungsten prices due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [1][2]. Price Trends - As of August 5, the prices for black tungsten concentrate, APT, and tungsten carbide powder have risen by 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively compared to early July, with current prices at 194,500 CNY/ton, 285,000 CNY/ton, and 422,500 CNY/ton [2]. - The long-term quotes for major manufacturers in early August include: Xiamen Tungsten Industry at 279,500 CNY/ton for APT, Zhangyuan Tungsten at 192,500 CNY/ton for black tungsten concentrate and 283,000 CNY/ton for APT, and Jiangxi Tungsten Group at 194,000 CNY/ton for black tungsten concentrate [2]. Market Dynamics - The current strong performance of tungsten prices is driven by three factors: the manufacturing sector is at a cyclical low, inventory levels among industries and traders are low, and external tungsten prices have been rising since June, reflecting a recovery in exports [3]. - The price gap between domestic and international tungsten prices has reached historical highs, indicating strong demand for domestic products as external markets recover [3]. Supply Situation - The long-term quotes from major manufacturers are close to market price announcements, indicating that the tight supply situation persists [4]. - The Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan has resumed normal shipments since May, with an average monthly output of around 800 tons. However, the domestic tungsten price remains strong, suggesting that local demand and supply constraints have effectively mitigated any potential market disruption from this new supply [5]. Investment Recommendations - Companies positioned at both ends of the tungsten industry chain are expected to benefit from the rising tungsten prices. Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech (000657.SZ) and Anyuan Coal Industry (600397.SH), with related stocks being Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549.SH), Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ), and Xianglu Tungsten (002842.SZ) [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies involved in the tungsten industry, specifically recommending Zhongtung High-tech and Anyuan Coal Industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The tungsten price is expected to continue rising due to tight supply and demand dynamics, with significant price increases observed in various tungsten products as of early August [1][2]. - The report identifies three main reasons for the strong performance of tungsten prices: the manufacturing sector is at a cyclical bottom, low inventory levels prompting restocking, and a recovery in export demand since June [2][3]. - The long-term outlook for tungsten prices remains positive due to persistent supply constraints and the scarcity of resources, which is likely to elevate the price center [4]. Summary by Sections Market Prices - As of August 5, 2023, black tungsten concentrate prices reached 194,500 CNY/ton, up 12% from early July; APT prices were 285,000 CNY/ton, up 13%; and tungsten carbide powder prices were 422,500 CNY/ton, up 14% [1]. Long-term Quotes - Major companies have set long-term quotes close to market prices, indicating ongoing raw material shortages. For instance, Xiamen Tungsten's APT quote was 279,500 CNY/ton, while Zhangyuan Tungsten's black tungsten concentrate was quoted at 192,500 CNY/ton [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic tungsten price remains strong despite the normal output from the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, which has a capacity of nearly 10,000 tons of tungsten concentrate per year. The market has absorbed this supply increase without significant price drops [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that short-term price elasticity will be driven by restocking and export recovery, while long-term supply issues will support higher tungsten prices. Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech and Anyuan Coal Industry, with related stocks being Xiamen Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Xianglu Tungsten [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tungsten industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The tungsten industry chain extends from exploration and mining of tungsten ore to smelting and deep processing, ultimately applied in various industrial fields. The upstream focuses on black and white tungsten ore, while the midstream involves the smelting of tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate (APT), and tungsten powder. The downstream includes the processing of tungsten materials, tungsten wires, and hard alloys, with demand coming from sectors like machinery manufacturing, automotive, and electronics [2][6] - As of July 23, 2023, the prices for tungsten products have seen significant increases compared to the beginning of the year, with black tungsten concentrate at 185,000 RMB/ton (up 29.4%), APT at 272,000 RMB/ton (up 28.9%), tungsten powder at 405 RMB/kg (up 28.2%), and tungsten carbide powder at 395 RMB/kg (up 27.0%) [2][16] - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with the first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 showing a decrease in quotas, leading to expectations of a supply shortage. China's tungsten resources are abundant, holding the world's largest tungsten reserves and production, but total control policies have gradually lowered production levels [2][29] - Demand for tungsten is expected to grow, particularly in the fields of new energy vehicles and military applications, with the APT operating rate at historical highs. The demand for high-end hard alloys is resilient, supporting mid-to-high-end tungsten prices [2][16] - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a projected shortage of 2,919 tons in 2025, with prices expected to continue rising. Demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4.9% to 6.3% from 2025 to 2027, while supply is expected to increase by only 2,000 tons annually [2][16] - Key companies in the tungsten industry include Xiamen Tungsten, which has a full industry chain layout and is rapidly increasing its photovoltaic tungsten wire production; Zhongtung High-tech, a leader in hard alloys with significant raw material supply advantages; and Zhangyuan Tungsten, which has prominent resource advantages and improved deep processing profitability [2][16] Summary by Sections Tungsten Price Review - The tungsten prices have shown a steady increase over the past five years, correlating positively with PMI [9][12] Supply: Decrease in Mining Indicators - The first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 shows a reduction, with 2025's indicators down by 6.45%. This reduction reinforces expectations of a tight supply [2][16] Demand: Growth Driven by Photovoltaic Tungsten Wire - The demand for tungsten is expected to increase, particularly in high-end applications, with a projected consumption of 71,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6] Supply-Demand Balance: Expanding Shortage - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a growing shortage, with projected deficits increasing from 2,919 tons in 2025 to 9,020 tons by 2027 [2][16] Company Analysis - Xiamen Tungsten is expanding its photovoltaic tungsten wire production, while Zhongtung High-tech is a leader in hard alloys with strong raw material supply advantages [2][16]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The company operates in the uranium industry, which is considered a strategic mineral resource in China, subject to protective mining regulations [2][3] - Uranium has three key characteristics: high melting point, high hardness, and high density, making it essential in various sectors of the national economy [2] Company Business - The company is engaged in the resource development and utilization of uranium mines, producing and selling various products derived from uranium [3][4] - The product range includes ammonium diuranate, uranium oxide, uranium carbide powder, thermal spray powder, and hard alloys [3] - The company has established an integrated production system covering upstream mining, midstream smelting, and downstream processing, making it one of the few domestic manufacturers with a complete uranium industry chain [3][4] Resource and Production Data - As of the end of 2024, the company holds uranium reserves of 79,400 tons, tin reserves of 17,600 tons, and copper reserves of 11,300 tons [4] - The company ranks first in uranium powder production and second in uranium carbide powder production in China [4] Market Trends and Pricing - The average price of uranium products has increased by 11% to 14% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and has seen a rise in market prices for uranium products and by-products [6] Production Challenges - There has been a slight decline in uranium ore production due to natural grade degradation, but the company is working on resource integration to stabilize production levels [8][9] - The company is also addressing rising mining costs, which have increased slightly over the years [10] Financial Performance - The company reported a stable performance in 2024, with an increase in sales volume for uranium powder and hard alloys, despite some pressure in the hard alloy market [24] - The gross margin for hard alloys has improved, with a reported increase from 16-17% to 20% [20][21] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing resource integration projects to enhance production capacity and efficiency [9] - There are ongoing efforts to expand into high-end markets, particularly in the aerospace and automotive sectors [17][30] Export and Trade Considerations - The company’s export ratio is around 12%, primarily to Asia and Europe, with minimal exposure to the U.S. market [18] - Recent trade tensions and export controls have not significantly impacted the company, although they have extended export processing times [19] Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the long-term price trends for uranium, despite current market fluctuations [28] - Plans for a new uranium project are underway, with expectations for production to commence in the near future [29] Conclusion - The company is positioned as a leading player in the uranium industry, with a comprehensive production chain and a focus on market expansion and product innovation [30]

Market Overview - On June 11, the tungsten sector showed strength, with Xianglu Tungsten Industry hitting the limit up, and other companies like Xiamen Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and China Tungsten High-tech also experiencing collective gains [1] Company Insights - Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842.SZ) has turned profitable, operating in the complete tungsten industry chain, including mining, smelting, and production of various tungsten products, with a significant mining area of 5.96 square kilometers [2] - Guangdong Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259.SS) has also turned profitable, focusing on a diversified industrial layout of rare earths, tungsten, and copper, with a tungsten resource reserve of 65,000 tons [2] - Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SS) is one of the largest tungsten smelting product processing companies globally, with a complete tungsten industry chain and significant market share in tungsten wire production [2] - Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ) is a leading tungsten smelting product processing company, with a complete production system from mining to deep processing and tungsten resource reserves of 94,600 tons [2] - Luoyang Copper (603993.SS) is a global leader in copper, cobalt, aluminum, and tungsten production, with a tungsten resource reserve of 26,040,000 tons [2] Price Trends - As of June 6, the price of 65% WO3 tungsten concentrate in China surpassed 173,000 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 31,000 yuan since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative rise of 21.8%, reaching a historical high [3] Institutional Analysis - China will implement export controls on tungsten-related matters by February 2025, which is expected to strengthen the strategic nature of tungsten resources, as 90% of tungsten concentrate processing capacity is concentrated in China [4] - The application of tungsten in various fields, including photovoltaic cutting and robotics, is expected to drive demand growth [5] - Supply constraints are anticipated due to declining production from existing mines and limited new mine launches, with the first batch of tungsten mining quotas for this year down 6.5% year-on-year, contributing to rising tungsten prices [5] - The tungsten market is expected to enter a bull market phase, with prices likely to continue breaking historical highs, and the supply-demand gap projected to expand from 18,300 tons in 2024 to 19,100 tons in 2028 [5]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Goals - The company plans to achieve a sales revenue of 3.8 billion CNY in 2025, with a focus on various operational segments [2] - In 2024, the company produced 3,739 tons of tungsten concentrate (65%), a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year [8] - The self-sufficiency rate for tungsten raw materials in 2024 was approximately 20% [9] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company is enhancing its mining operations by integrating resource exploration and optimizing mining methods to improve efficiency [3] - The company aims to develop high-value-added products and improve production processes through digital transformation [5] - The company has established a complete tungsten industry chain, ranking first in tungsten powder production and second in carbide tungsten powder production as of Q4 2024 [3] Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is recognized as one of the few manufacturers in China with a complete tungsten industry chain, which strengthens its market resilience [3] - The company focuses on innovation and has established a technology center to drive research and development [4] - The company benefits from regional policy advantages that support the development and utilization of tungsten resources [5] Group 4: Product Sales and Market Trends - In 2024, tungsten powder sales were 3,980 tons, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year, while tungsten carbide powder sales increased by 0.20% to 4,923 tons [14] - The company’s subsidiary, Ganzhou Aoketai, reported a revenue of 665.99 million CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.93% [15] - The sales of coated blades increased by 6.22% to 21.68 million pieces in 2024 [15] Group 5: Future Development Outlook - The company is committed to sustainable development and aims to enhance resource exploration and mining efficiency [6] - The focus will be on high-performance tungsten products for various industries, including aerospace and renewable energy [7] - The company plans to continue its efforts in resource integration and smart mining construction to ensure orderly resource replacement [10]

Group 1: Capacity Expansion and Market Strategy - The company is focused on upstream resource exploration and integration to ensure orderly replacement of mining resources, with plans for deep mining and infrastructure development to enhance resource reserves and extraction efficiency [1][7] - In the midstream, the company aims to optimize production processes and develop automated production workshops to meet diverse market demands [1][2] - The company’s subsidiary, Ganzhou Aoketai Tool Technology Co., Ltd., is committed to high-value hard alloy markets, particularly in aerospace and new energy sectors [2] Group 2: Environmental and Energy Management - The company has established an integrated management system and obtained ISO14001:2015 and ISO50001:2018 certifications for environmental and energy management [4] - Continuous technological innovation and process improvements are being implemented to optimize energy structure and promote energy-saving technologies [5] - The company emphasizes resource efficiency, clean production, and compliance with environmental regulations, actively promoting green practices among employees [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Challenges - The company’s overseas revenue accounted for 18.71% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, indicating challenges in international trade [5] - The company is focused on enhancing product quality and stability, expanding product categories, and increasing customer loyalty to penetrate overseas markets [5] - The gross margins for core products like tungsten powder and tungsten carbide powder are relatively low at 8.01% and 10.38%, respectively, prompting the company to seek measures to improve profitability [7] Group 4: Resource Management and Future Plans - The company owns six mining rights and ten exploration rights, with ongoing efforts to integrate mining resources and explore deeper mining opportunities [6][7] - New exploration rights are expected to enhance resource integration and expand tungsten concentrate production capacity [7] - The company is committed to maintaining a stable supply of raw materials and improving product competitiveness to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations [7][9]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of CNY 367,325.17 million, representing an 8.02% increase year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 17,202.86 million, reflecting a 19.50% growth compared to the previous year [2] - For Q1 2025, the operating revenue reached CNY 118,625.34 million, marking a 35.74% increase year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was CNY 4,256.78 million, a significant increase of 56.46% year-on-year [2] Mining Operations - In 2024, the production of tungsten concentrate (65%) was 3,739 tons, a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year [3] - The production of tin concentrate (100% metal content) was 828 tons, down 6.12% year-on-year [3] - Copper concentrate production (100% metal content) increased by 1.81% to 449 tons [3] - The self-sufficiency rate for tungsten raw materials was approximately 20% in 2024 [4] Resource Integration - The company is advancing resource integration, with the verification report for the Taoxikeng tungsten mine and Dongfeng's resources approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources [5] - The verification reports for the Xin'anzi tungsten-tin mine and Longtanmian, as well as the deep resource verification report for Dayu Shilei tungsten mine, are nearing completion [5][6] Powder Product Sales - In 2024, tungsten powder sales were 3,980 tons, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year [7] - Sales of tungsten carbide powder were 4,923 tons, showing a slight increase of 0.20% [7] - Sales of thermal spray powder decreased by 12.22% to 388 tons [7] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced an increase in product sales due to enhanced customer loyalty [7] Subsidiary Performance - In 2024, Ganzhou Aoketai reported operating revenue of CNY 66,599.13 million, a growth of 21.93% year-on-year [8] - The net profit was a loss of CNY 682.28 million, an improvement from a loss of CNY 4,193.11 million in the previous year [8] - Gaining traction in various sectors, Aoketai increased sales of coated blades by 6.22% to 2,168 million pieces and rod sales by 12.19% to 773 tons [8] Market Impact - The rise in tungsten concentrate prices has a generally positive impact on the company, although significant fluctuations in raw material prices could affect production costs and operational performance [9] Future Development Plans - The company aims to focus on efficient utilization and development of tungsten resources, emphasizing high-performance, high-precision, and high-value-added hard alloys [10] - Plans include resource exploration, deep mining development, and digital transformation of production facilities [11] - The strategy involves enhancing production processes, developing specialized powder products, and targeting high-value markets such as aerospace and new energy [11]