1. Report Type and Date - The report is an Iron Ore Daily Review dated April 17, 2025 [1][2] 2. Research Team - The black metal research team includes researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Data 3.1 Futures Contract Prices, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - On April 16, 2025, the closing prices of RB2510, HC2510, SS2506, and I2509 were 3093 yuan/ton, 3205 yuan/ton, 12820 yuan/ton, and 708 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of -1.06%, -1.05%, -0.08%, and -0.14% [5] 3.2 Futures Contract Open Interest and Changes - For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions were 344,417 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 347,592 lots, with a long - short difference of 6,532 lots and a deviation of 1.89% [8] 4. Market Analysis 4.1 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On April 16, the main iron ore overseas quotes decreased by $0.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained unchanged [9] - The daily KDJ indicator of the Iron Ore 2509 contract continued to rise after a golden cross, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator has been narrowing for 5 consecutive trading days [9] 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, Australian shipments increased, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and the overall shipments increased by 418,000 tons to 24.348 million tons. The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China also increased, up 232,000 tons to 14.763 million tons. The arrivals at 45 ports rebounded, increasing by 3.368 million tons to 25.255 million tons [10] - **Demand**: This week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products declined, with decreases of 14,600 tons and 197,000 tons respectively. The decline in apparent demand was likely affected by US trade policies, especially for hot - rolled coils, whose apparent demand decreased by 169,900 tons. However, the daily average hot - metal production exceeded 2.4 million tons [11] - **Inventory**: Last week, the number of days of steel mill inventory available decreased by 1 day to 20 days, the lowest this year. The port iron ore inventory continued to decline, with the 45 - port inventory dropping to 143 million tons, lower than the same period last year and the lowest since March 22, 2024 [12] 4.3 Market Outlook - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both increasing, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The short - term ore price may fluctuate and strengthen, but the long - term impact of tariff policies will limit the upside space. It is advisable to consider buying hedging or investment strategies for the 2509 contract on dips [12] 5. Industry News - On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the GDP in the first quarter was 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.2% [13] - From January to March, the national real estate development investment was 1.9904 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The new construction area decreased by 24.4%, and the completed area decreased by 14.3% [13] - The deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Sheng Laiyun, said that China's economy is forming a new pattern driven by domestic demand and innovation. The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth in the past five years has exceeded 80% [13] 6. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spread between high - grade ore and PB powder, the spread between low - grade ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, Brazilian and Australian iron ore shipments, arrivals at 45 ports, etc. [18][19][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has recovered, leading to a rebound in the market. In the short term, a volatile trading approach should be adopted. The easing of Trump's tariff policy has increased market risk appetite, causing a rebound in the commodity market, especially in iron ore. However, due to the deterioration of international trade and stricter export investigations of Chinese steel products, the export demand for finished steel is expected to be weak, which may suppress the increase in hot metal production. The seasonal increase in overseas ore shipments also indicates a marginal weakening of the iron ore fundamentals. The 2509 contract is under pressure from increased supply and weakening exports of finished steel, with an expected operating range of 680 - 740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and continue to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The macro - sentiment recovery has led to a market rebound. The easing of Trump's tariff policy has increased market risk appetite, resulting in a significant rebound in iron ore. The deterioration of international trade and stricter export investigations of Chinese steel products may suppress the increase in hot metal production. The seasonal increase in overseas ore shipments indicates a marginal weakening of iron ore fundamentals. The 09 contract faces pressure from increased supply and weakening exports of finished steel. The 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 680 - 740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and continue to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [1]. Futures Market - The main iron ore I2509 contract opened lower and then strengthened, closing at 707 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 3.06%. The trading volume was 597,300 lots, and the open interest was 481,900 lots, a decrease of 6,907 lots. The top 20 long positions in the 2509 contract increased by 2,016 lots to 299,669 lots, and the top 20 short positions increased by 362 lots to 313,628 lots [3][5]. Fundamental Tracking - From March 31 to April 6, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2.9219 billion tons, a decrease of 265,900 tons compared with the previous period. The Australian shipment volume was 1.6592 billion tons, a decrease of 327,200 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.4531 billion tons, a decrease of 73,900 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 733,900 tons, an increase of 72,500 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.3591 billion tons, a decrease of 13,200 tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.1887 billion tons, a decrease of 54,900 tons. As of April 4, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 126 domestic mines was 41,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.14%, with limited changes compared with the previous period. Overseas ore shipments have decreased slightly, mainly from Australia, and are at a relatively high level. The arrival volume has decreased slightly from a high level and is at a moderately low level, with a possible increase in the future. The iron ore price remains above the cost line of non - mainstream mines, having limited impact on non - mainstream mine shipments. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still in a loose situation. On the demand side, the hot metal production has continued to increase slightly, but the concentrated resumption of production has passed, and the growth rate may slow down. On the inventory side, the port inventory has fluctuated slightly, and steel mills still maintain a low - inventory strategy. In the medium - to - long - term, high inventory restricts the upside space of the ore price [6].