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多空因素交织下 铁矿石09合约难有大幅上涨趋势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-14 08:33
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a mixed supply and demand situation, with a slight decrease in global shipments and high iron production, leading to fluctuations in prices. Group 1: Market Data - On May 13, the total iron ore transactions at major ports in China reached 747,000 tons, a decrease of 27.90% month-on-month [1] - As of May 13, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 148.86 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons compared to May 8 [1] - Satellite data indicates that from May 5 to May 11, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.07 million tons, a decrease of 101,000 tons [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, global shipment volumes have slightly decreased, with Australian port repairs reducing shipments, while Brazilian shipments have significantly declined [2] - Iron production has increased to 2.4564 million tons, leading to a reduction in both port and steel mill inventories [2] - Guodu Futures notes that the supply of iron ore is weak while demand remains strong, with a decrease in arrivals and high production levels at steel mills [3] Group 3: Price Outlook - The current high iron production levels are supporting prices, but expectations of peak production and weak terminal demand are limiting upward price movement [3] - The strategy for the September contract is to expect limited upward trends, with a focus on a 700-point central fluctuation [3]