Group 1 - The black metal sector in the domestic futures market showed a positive trend, with rebar futures opening at 3092.00 yuan/ton and fluctuating throughout the day, reaching a high of 3137.00 yuan and a low of 3075.00 yuan, resulting in a decline of 1.13% [1] - Rebar market is experiencing a downward trend with weak performance, as indicated by the accumulation of total inventory despite a rebound in high furnace iron water and iron ore port inventory [1] - Various institutions have noted that real estate sales, construction starts, and completion data are poor, while steel exports remain resilient, leading to expectations of reduced crude steel production [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, with a significant probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could enhance monetary policy space in China [2] - Steel demand has shown signs of weak recovery since September, but steel mills are operating at the brink of profitability, indicating potential for price rebound if production is controlled [2] - The "Golden September" demand is not meeting expectations, suggesting that steel prices may continue to experience weak fluctuations in the short term [2]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a mixed supply and demand situation, with a slight decrease in global shipments and high iron production, leading to fluctuations in prices. Group 1: Market Data - On May 13, the total iron ore transactions at major ports in China reached 747,000 tons, a decrease of 27.90% month-on-month [1] - As of May 13, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 148.86 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons compared to May 8 [1] - Satellite data indicates that from May 5 to May 11, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.07 million tons, a decrease of 101,000 tons [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, global shipment volumes have slightly decreased, with Australian port repairs reducing shipments, while Brazilian shipments have significantly declined [2] - Iron production has increased to 2.4564 million tons, leading to a reduction in both port and steel mill inventories [2] - Guodu Futures notes that the supply of iron ore is weak while demand remains strong, with a decrease in arrivals and high production levels at steel mills [3] Group 3: Price Outlook - The current high iron production levels are supporting prices, but expectations of peak production and weak terminal demand are limiting upward price movement [3] - The strategy for the September contract is to expect limited upward trends, with a focus on a 700-point central fluctuation [3]