Group 1 - The black metal sector in the domestic futures market showed a positive trend, with rebar futures opening at 3092.00 yuan/ton and fluctuating throughout the day, reaching a high of 3137.00 yuan and a low of 3075.00 yuan, resulting in a decline of 1.13% [1] - Rebar market is experiencing a downward trend with weak performance, as indicated by the accumulation of total inventory despite a rebound in high furnace iron water and iron ore port inventory [1] - Various institutions have noted that real estate sales, construction starts, and completion data are poor, while steel exports remain resilient, leading to expectations of reduced crude steel production [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, with a significant probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could enhance monetary policy space in China [2] - Steel demand has shown signs of weak recovery since September, but steel mills are operating at the brink of profitability, indicating potential for price rebound if production is controlled [2] - The "Golden September" demand is not meeting expectations, suggesting that steel prices may continue to experience weak fluctuations in the short term [2]

5月13日，全国主港铁矿石成交74.7万吨，环比减少27.90%；远期现货成交102.3万吨。 光大期货： 供应端来看，全球发运量小幅降低，澳洲港口泊位检修减少，发运量小幅回升，巴西发运量明显降低， 非主流国家发运量回升。需求端，铁水产量环比继续增加至245.64万吨。库存端，当前高铁水产量下， 港口库存、钢厂库存均有所去库。多空交织下，预计铁矿石盘面价格呈现震荡走势，关注压减粗钢产量 相关信息。 国都期货： 消息面，国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自5月14日12时01分起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征 关税措施。基本面，铁矿石供弱需强，到港量环比回落，因钢厂利润尚可，铁水产量维持高位。综合来 看，供需短期错配（到港减、复产增）支撑价格，但铁水触顶预期及终端需求疲弱压制反弹空间。策略 上，09合约难有大幅上涨趋势，近期按照700点中枢震荡思路对待。 5月13日，中国47港进口铁矿石库存总量14885.88万吨，较上周四（5月8日）数据增加121.17万吨。具体 区域来看，本期库存增量主要体现在华南、华北和沿江三个区域，华南区域库存增量居首位；而东北和 华东两区域库存较上周四有小幅下滑。 卫星数据显示，202 ...