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最高涨逾35%,银行股狂欢!公募潜在配置空间巨大
券商中国· 2025-07-10 23:23
Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with major banks' stock prices reaching historical highs and individual bank stocks experiencing significant gains, indicating a favorable investment environment for bank equities [1][4][6]. Group 1: Performance and Trends - As of July 10, 2023, the banking sector has seen individual stock gains exceeding 35% year-to-date, with the banking index rising over 20% [1][4]. - Major banks such as ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China have all recorded increases, contributing to a total market capitalization exceeding 10 trillion [4]. - The ETF linked to banking stocks has also performed well, with an average return of around 20% this year [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Allocation - Public funds have significantly underweighted the banking sector, with active equity funds allocating less than 4% to bank stocks, indicating a potential for increased investment [3][8]. - The theoretical allocation for the banking sector should be around 296.5 billion, suggesting a potential influx of over 200 billion if funds align with performance benchmarks [9][10]. - The current holdings of public funds in bank stocks are low, with the largest holdings concentrated in a few banks, such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank [5][8]. Group 3: Reasons for Growth - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to their attractive valuation, high dividend yield, and defensive characteristics, making them appealing in the current macroeconomic environment [2][6]. - The banking sector is seen as a low-volatility, high-return investment option, especially as the economic landscape stabilizes and policies support growth [6][10]. - Historical comparisons show that banks have outperformed other high-dividend assets, particularly as funds shift from real estate to banking stocks [7][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is an expectation that public funds will increase their allocation to bank stocks, driven by the sector's strong fundamentals and improving asset quality [10][12]. - The banking sector's low correlation with cyclical fluctuations positions it favorably for long-term investment, especially as bad debt ratios improve [11][12]. - The ongoing rebalancing of public fund portfolios is likely to favor bank stocks, enhancing their attractiveness to institutional investors [12].