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银行AH的AH轮动策略
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降息降准组合推出,高股息银行股更香了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 02:32
Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank is expected to provide liquidity support to the stock market and create long-term growth opportunities for banks, indicating that bank stocks are unlikely to decline further [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity into the market, alleviating pressure on banks' liabilities and enhancing their ability to issue medium to long-term loans [2]. - A reduction in the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points is aimed at guiding the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) downward, thereby reducing financing costs for enterprises and households. Although this may compress banks' net interest margins in the short term, a prolonged low-interest environment could stimulate credit demand expansion, allowing banks to maintain profit stability through volume compensation [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Strategy - The bank AH index has shown an average dividend yield exceeding 5%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.65%. From the beginning of 2025 to May 6, the index has risen by 5%, outperforming the China Securities Bank Index and the CSI 300, as well as the STAR Market 50 [3]. - The bank AH strategy benefits from the pricing discrepancies between A-shares and H-shares, where the same bank may have different valuations in the two markets due to structural, liquidity, and risk preference differences. This strategy systematically scans for price differences and selects the cheaper option, akin to choosing discounted items in a supermarket [4][5]. - The bank AH strategy aims to hold relatively undervalued assets over the long term, providing a natural margin of safety. By reinvesting dividends and taking advantage of the cyclical discrepancies between A and H shares, it reduces systemic risk and smooths out volatility [5]. Group 3: Recent Market Activity - On May 7, the bank ETF tracking the bank AH index experienced a rebound after hitting a low, rising over 0.9%. The fund has seen a net inflow of over 15 million yuan in the past five days, indicating strong investor interest [6][9]. - The bank ETF strategy captures the certainty of A-share policies while benefiting from the extreme undervaluation in H-shares, effectively balancing both opportunities [9].