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花旗:维持国泰航空“沽售”评级 目标价11.2港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-03-12 09:30
Group 1 - The core profit of Cathay Pacific (00293) for the second half of the year reached HKD 6.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 7% [1] - Excluding contributions from joint ventures, the core profit was HKD 5.4 billion, which is a 43% increase compared to the first half and an 8% year-on-year growth [1] - The full-year performance met 107% and 108% of Citigroup and market forecasts, respectively [1] Group 2 - Citigroup maintains a "sell" rating for Cathay Pacific, primarily due to weak growth in outbound tourism from China, setting a target price of HKD 11.2 [1] - Prior to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Cathay Pacific reported strong passenger load factors for long-haul flights, with a surge in short-term demand for routes to Europe and Australasia [1] - The airline has hedged 30% of its expected fuel consumption for 2026 at a price of USD 70 per barrel, exposing it to risks from widening fuel crack spreads [1] Group 3 - If spot aviation fuel prices rise by USD 10 from USD 78 per barrel, Cathay Pacific would need to increase passenger unit revenue by approximately 10% in Europe, Australasia, and South Asia to offset the impact of rising fuel costs [2] - For essential travelers, this price increase is feasible in the short term (1-2 months), but the global ticket price demand elasticity is -0.87, indicating that price hikes could lead to a decrease in travel demand [2]