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海天国际(1882.HK):全球注塑机龙头 制造业产能再分布的深度受益者
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-19 01:34
Core Viewpoint - Haitian International has been deeply engaged in the injection molding machine industry for over 50 years, holding the largest global market share with a comprehensive product range. The domestic injection molding machine industry is expected to maintain its prosperity, with an ongoing optimization of the competitive landscape and an increasing market share for leading companies. Internationally, greenfield investments are rising, indicating sustained overseas demand for injection molding machines for over five years, benefiting from the global manufacturing capacity redistribution trend [1][3]. Domestic Market Overview - The domestic injection molding machine market is valued at approximately 25 billion RMB, with the industry expected to remain in a prosperous phase. The downstream sectors, primarily home appliances, automotive, and daily necessities, are benefiting from consumer upgrades and strong export performance, leading to sustained capital expenditure from downstream enterprises [2]. - The competitive landscape is continuously improving, with leading companies like Haitian International and Yizumi expected to increase their combined market share from nearly 40% in 2023 to over 50% in 2024, outperforming the industry due to scale effects and heightened quality demands from customers [2]. International Market Trends - Overseas demand for injection molding machines is projected to remain strong for over five years, with Haitian International poised to benefit significantly. Greenfield investments have increased from 37% in 2015 to 104% in 2023, indicating a robust demand for new production capacity that is not diminishing despite global investment fluctuations [3]. - Regions experiencing rapid growth in injection molding machine exports, such as Vietnam and Mexico, are in a manufacturing development phase similar to China's manufacturing boom from 1992 to 2011, suggesting a sustained growth trajectory for injection molding machine demand [3]. - Haitian International is transitioning from a capital-importing to a capital-exporting country, actively expanding its global footprint to mitigate trade friction impacts. The company has established five overseas factories and has subsidiaries in nine countries, with sales and service partners in over 60 countries, achieving an overseas revenue share of 40% in 2023 [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Haitian International is expected to achieve net profits of 3.072 billion, 3.459 billion, and 3.949 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.31%, 12.58%, and 14.17%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 11, 10, and 9 times [4].