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承德露露(000848):三季报点评:三季度营收复苏明显,仍处费用投入期
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue showed a significant recovery in Q3, although the increase in sales expense ratio offset the gross margin expansion. Future performance will depend on the new product, LULU Zhiben health water [1][4]. - The health water sector is experiencing a boom, with the market size expected to reach 30 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 566%, and projected to exceed 100 billion RMB by 2028 [4][9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,955 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8% in 2024, reaching 3,287 million RMB [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 638 million RMB in 2023, with a slight increase to 666 million RMB in 2024 [3]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 45.62% in 2025, up from 41.5% in 2023 [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Trends - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.96 billion RMB, down 9.42% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 4.10 percentage points to 45.62% [4][9]. - In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 8.91% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 4.05 percentage points [4][9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The launch of the LULU Zhiben series, which includes various health drinks, aims to enhance brand competitiveness and appeal to younger consumers [4][9]. - The health water industry is currently in a prosperous phase, and the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend as demand is expected to rise with the changing seasons [4][9].