Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot market for container shipping has a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with geopolitical and tariff issues remaining uncertain. The short - term futures price is likely to show a wide - range oscillatory trend. The market should continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East and the development of Sino - US relations [1]. - In the near - term, although the spot quotes for the European route in November and the SCFI European route have rebounded, the cargo volume in the spot market is still insufficient. Considering geopolitical risks and uncertain macro - sentiment, the futures price is more likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate slightly stronger [2]. - In the long - term, the situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. Any significant change in the Gaza cease - fire process or the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea will have a significant impact on the futures price. Also, the peak - season characteristics of the European container shipping market have been vague in the first eight months of this year, and the demand support in the peak season may be weak [5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Factors** - The core contradiction affecting the EC price trend this week is that shipping companies announced price increase letters for November, but some later reduced quotes at the end of October. The upward trend of the futures price is due to major shipping companies' price increase announcements for November and Maersk's successful price support in mid - to - late October, which boosted market confidence. The downward trend is because some major shipping companies lowered quotes in late October, reducing the futures price valuation [1]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations** - **Market Positioning**: The overall strategy is to continue with intraday short - term trading. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, with short - term support between 1500 - 1550 and resistance between 1700 - 1750. Traders can stay on the sidelines for the spot - futures (basis) strategy. For the arbitrage (inter - delivery) strategy, the previous long 10 - short 12 contract arbitrage can be held, but future actions should be cautious due to geopolitical and tariff uncertainties [13]. - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations** - For companies with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits. - For shipping companies concerned about rising freight rates and increased transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to pre - determine booking costs [11]. - **Basic Data Overview** - The FBX comprehensive route index increased by 21.23% week - on - week, the CICFI decreased by 2.16%, the SCFI increased by 12.92%, the NCFI increased by 16.79%, the CCFI decreased by 4.11%, and the CFFI decreased by 4.99%. The SCFIS European route decreased by 1.40%, the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 1.64%, the SCFI European route increased by 7.21%, the SCFI US - West route increased by 31.88%, and the SCFI US - East route increased by 16.35% [12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information - **Bullish Information** - Sino - US trade representatives held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations soon. - CMA CGM and Hapag - Lloyd announced price increase letters for November for Asian - to - Nordic and Far - East - to - European routes respectively. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the Gaza war will not end until Hamas is disarmed and Gaza is "demilitarized", and the US accused Hamas of planning new attacks [24]. - **Bearish Information** - SeaLead and CMA CGM reformed and upgraded their routes, respectively. - The PA alliance lowered its offline freight rates to $1500/FEU [25]. 3.3 Market Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow** - The container shipping index (European route) futures (EC) showed a wide - range oscillatory trend this week due to changes in shipping company quotes. Technically, the short - term moving average crossed below the long - term moving average, indicating a short - term downward expectation. The main positions of container shipping futures had no significant changes, but the profitable positions and foreign net short positions increased slightly, showing a relatively bearish market sentiment [26]. - **Basis Structure** - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index Settlement (SCFIS) for the European route continued to decline, with a significant narrowing of the month - on - month decline to 1.40%, closing at 1031.80 points. The main contract shifted to EC2512, closing at 1654.70 points on Friday. The basis rate decreased, and caution is needed for hedging at the current level [30]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread Structure** - The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2510 - 2602, and EC2512 - 2602 were - 557.8 points, - 375.1 points, and 182.7 points respectively. Due to shipping companies' price increase announcements for November and partial reduction of October quotes, the spreads of EC2510 - 2512 and EC2510 - 2602 widened. The previous 10 - 12 contract long - short arbitrage can be held, but future actions should be cautious [34]. 3.4 Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, major shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Maersk, and CMA CGM Group had good profit and revenue performance, while some companies like ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits compared to the same period last year. Most shipping companies still made a profit, indicating that the current market is not bad. - For the second half of the year, shipping companies believe that uncertainty has increased, and they will operate more cautiously, focusing on cost control and potentially affecting freight rates through supply - side and cost - side measures [36].