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大摩最新研判:AI 眼镜出货量将持续攀升,下一个 "智能入口" 要来了?
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 11:00
Group 1 - The core focus of the report is on the AI + AR glasses market in Greater China and the Asia-Pacific region, highlighting the rapid integration of AR features by Chinese manufacturers such as Alibaba, Rokid, and Xreal, utilizing technologies like MicroLED and waveguide systems [1][7] - Alibaba has launched the WOW glasses, which incorporate dual micro-LEDs and a waveguide system, while Meta's new AR glasses, Celeste, will use LCOS display modules with a critical emphasis on battery life [2][3] - Morgan Stanley predicts an 80% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the AI glasses SoC market from 2024 to 2028, with the CIS and LCOS market sizes expected to reach $273 million and $153 million respectively by 2028 [1][17][19] Group 2 - The WOW glasses from Alibaba utilize a mainstream system-on-chip (SoC) along with a BES2800 chip for enhanced energy efficiency, and they feature a monochrome micro-LED display [2][7] - Rokid's AI + AR glasses have a similar design to Alibaba's, using micro-LEDs and diffraction waveguides, while Xreal employs a different approach by combining micro-OLEDs with a birdbath optical stack for full-color display [2][15] - Meta's Celeste is expected to be officially launched at the Meta Connect event in September, featuring a high-resolution silicon LCD panel with a refresh rate of 120 Hz, although battery life remains a significant concern [3][4][5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the short-term adoption of silicon waveguides in AR displays is limited due to high costs, with a silicon wafer costing $5 supporting only 3-4 pairs of glasses [6] - The collaboration between Tianyue Advanced and Sunny Optical aims to promote the application of silicon carbide substrates in optical fields, which could benefit AI glasses and automotive displays [13] - Meta's Q2 2025 earnings call highlighted that AI glasses will be a primary means of integrating superintelligence into daily life, with a 5% year-over-year increase in Reality Labs revenue attributed to strong AI glasses sales [14]