1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market may enter a period of range - bound and weakening. The market's optimistic sentiment has faded, and the iron ore futures price is under pressure to decline. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options [7][51] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of August 1, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 783 (-19.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 821 (-11) yuan/dry ton [5] - The total global iron ore shipments increased by 918,000 tons week - on - week. From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, and the shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, an increase of 2039,000 tons week - on - week [5] - The arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 1.921 million tons. From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons week - on - week [5] - The daily average hot metal output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons week - on - week and an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year [5] - As of August 1, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 1.7367 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.2687 million tons week - on - week [5] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 58.88 percentage points year - on - year [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas, the US PCE data in June accelerated, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was dampened again; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required the governance of disorderly competition and capacity management in key industries [7] - In terms of supply and demand, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to increase, the arrivals and domestic port inventories declined; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the hot metal output continued to decline slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons [7] - Technically, the I2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated downward, with the daily K - line under pressure below the MA5 moving average, and it tested the support near MA20 (775) in the short term; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA adjusted downward, and the green bar expanded [7] - It is recommended that the I2509 contract may enter a range - bound situation. Short - term trading is advisable, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract adjusted downward and was weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 1st, the spread was 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On August 1, the warehouse receipt volume of iron ore at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3600 lots, an increase of 200 lots week - on - week [19] - On August 1, the net position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was a net short of 20,512 lots, a decrease of 4651 lots compared with the previous week [19] 3.2.3 Spot Price - On August 1, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/dry ton week - on - week [25] - This week, the spot price of iron ore was higher than the futures price. On the 1st, the basis was 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Shipments and Arrivals - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, an increase of 918,000 tons week - on - week. The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, an increase of 2.039 million tons week - on - week [29] - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 22.405 million tons, a decrease of 1.307 million tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 11.573 million tons, a decrease of 2.319 million tons week - on - week [29] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 1.7367 million tons week - on - week; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, a decrease of 1.142 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 61.0885 million tons, a decrease of 2.004 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 51.9207 million tons, an increase of 0.5247 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 90.4245 million tons, a decrease of 1.4112 million tons [33] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.2687 million tons week - on - week; the current daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.9946 million tons, a decrease of 0.0164 million tons week - on - week; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.09 days, an increase of 0.58 days week - on - week [33] 3.3.3 Inventory Availability and Shipping Index - As of July 30, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory of large and medium - sized steel mills in China were 21 days, a flat week - on - week [36] - On July 31, the BDI shipping index was 2003, a decrease of 254 week - on - week [36] 3.3.4 Import and Mine Capacity Utilization - In June 2025, China's imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 105.948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%; from January to June, the imports were 592.205 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39] - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines nationwide was 64.48%, an increase of 0.68% compared with the previous period; the average daily output of fine powder was 406,800 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory was 410,000 tons, a decrease of 44,500 tons week - on - week [39] 3.3.5 Domestic Ore Production - In June 2025, China's raw iron ore output was 88.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [42] - In June, the output of iron fine powder of 433 iron mines nationwide was 23.304 million tons, a decrease of 0.762 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 137.753 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.932 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% [42] 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production and Steel Trade - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [45] - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, China imported 0.47 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.011 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [45] 3.4.2 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Output - On August 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, flat week - on - week, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points week - on - week [48] - On August 1, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons week - on - week, an increase of 4.09 million tons year - on - year [48] 3.5 Option Market - It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options as the iron ore port inventory is declining, the hot metal output is running at a high level, but the optimistic sentiment has faded, and the sharp decline of coking coal has led to the weakening of the black - related sector, and iron ore may enter a range - bound and weakening situation [51]