1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel data shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding but remains at an off - season level. August demand declined significantly, mainly due to poor rebar demand, which widened the coil - rebar spread to around 290. The market is still weak this week, with steel prices falling. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering demand and coking coal supply, steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. It is recommended to try long positions [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the 2601 iron ore contract showed a weak and volatile trend, with a rebound on Friday night. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also rose. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin is at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and the hot metal output remained high. However, the downstream apparent demand decreased, and steel prices were weak. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. After the Tangshan steel mill's 15 - day production restriction starting from August 20, the hot metal output will decline, and the restocking demand will weaken. But after the short - term production restriction, the hot metal output will rebound, and the basis of the 09 contract will be repaired, which will support the futures price. It is recommended to go long at low prices and conduct a 1 - 5 long - short spread arbitrage [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a rebound at the end of Friday. The spot auction price declined slightly, and the Mongolian coal price was weak. On the supply side, coal mine production increased, but sales slowed down, and some mines started to reduce prices. Imported coal prices also fell, and downstream restocking was cautious. On the demand side, coking plant production increased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace hot metal output fluctuated at a high level, but the restocking demand slowed down. Considering the production restriction of Tangshan steel mills before the parade, the hot metal output will decline in late August. The overall inventory is slightly lower at a medium level. The spot market is stable but weak. The near - month contract has support as the futures price is lower than the warehouse receipt cost, and the 9 - 1 spread has a narrowing trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract and conduct a long - coking - coal short - coke spread arbitrage [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3239 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 3020 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton without change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 3185 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions generally declined [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal output was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 tons to 878.1 tons, with the rebar output decreasing by 5.8 tons to 214.7 tons and the hot - rolled coil output increasing by 9.7 tons to 325.2 tons. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 tons to 1441.0 tons, the rebar inventory increased by 19.8 tons to 607.0 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 361.4 tons [1]. Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreasing from 800.0 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads changed to different extents [3]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 94.7 tons to 2476.6 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 359.9 tons to 3406.6 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 tons to 10462.3 tons. On the demand side, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, the 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 8.9 tons to 325.7 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Iron Ore Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 11.2 tons to 13845.2 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 tons to 9065.5 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke changed to different extents. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke and coking coal increased, and the basis and spreads also changed. The coking plant profit decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with the all - sample coking plant's coke inventory increasing, the 247 steel mills' coke inventory slightly decreasing, and the port inventory slightly decreasing. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, the all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased, and the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory increased [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Suggest a wait - and - see approach for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After previous adjustments, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products. It is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly, such as the prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions and some futures contracts of rebar [1]. Cost and Profit - The costs of some steel production processes decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased slightly, and the profits of rebar decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the rebar output decreased. The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased [1]. Market Outlook - The rebar data has deteriorated, with a significant decline in August demand. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand are stable. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed slightly [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side shows that the iron water output remains at a high level, but the downstream demand has declined [4]. Inventory - The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of some steel mills increased [4]. Market Outlook - In August, the iron water output will decline slightly. After the previous adjustment, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The coking enterprise's production increased slightly, and the demand side shows that the blast furnace iron water output fluctuates at a high level. The supply of coking coal has increased, and the downstream demand has slowed down [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased overall, and the coking coal inventory is at a medium level with different trends in different sectors [6]. Market Outlook - The seventh round of coke price increase is still expected. For both coke and coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract futures price fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.75%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The market sentiment has warmed up, but the supply - demand pattern is weak, so the steel price is still under pressure. However, the low - inventory situation limits the downside space. It is expected to continue the fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation, with a daily increase of 0.41%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Although the fundamentals have weakened under the situation of increasing supply and demand, production - restriction disturbances are fermenting, the real - world contradictions are not significant, and raw materials are relatively strong. The price is expected to continue the upward - fluctuating trend, and overseas risks should be monitored [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract futures price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.06%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. The demand for ore has certain resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the supply is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. It is predicted to continue the high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - **Automobile industry**: The Passenger Car Association slightly raised the industry's annual forecast. Passenger car retail sales are expected to reach 24.35 million units in 2025, a 6% increase year - on - year, and the forecast volume is 300,000 units more than the June forecast. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.8% and 33.3% respectively [6]. - **Global manufacturing**: In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, showing weak operation. The Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, remaining above 50% for three consecutive months and continuing to support global economic recovery [7]. - **Steel industry**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease from the previous period; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 185,600 tons, a 4.5% decrease; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 209,100 tons, a 0.5% increase [8]. Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) were 3,404 yuan/ton and 3,496 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Tangshan billet (Q235) and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) were 3,090 yuan/ton and 2,140 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 yuan/ton, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 776 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 752 yuan/ton. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 9.65 yuan/ton and 23.64 yuan/ton respectively. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.91, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 101.65 [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,234 | 0.75 | 1,202,766 | - 377,887 | 1,652,569 | - 56,263 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,451 | 0.41 | 561,631 | - 173,827 | 1,460,175 | - 1,559 | | Iron ore | 794.5 | - 0.06 | 208,804 | 10,737 | 358,293 | - 26,208 | [13] Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal inventory and inventory changes [21][25][27]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - **Rebar**: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production is weakly stable, with weekly output decreasing slightly by 0.90 tons. Demand has also declined, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 13.17 tons. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and inventory changes should be monitored [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply has increased with the resumption of production after maintenance, and there is room for further growth. Demand has certain resilience, but there are concerns about external demand. The price is expected to continue to rise with fluctuations, and overseas risks should be noted [39]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, with a decline in terminal consumption. However, the profitability of steel mills is good, so the demand has certain resilience. The supply is increasing steadily. The price is expected to continue high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market may enter a period of range - bound and weakening. The market's optimistic sentiment has faded, and the iron ore futures price is under pressure to decline. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options [7][51] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of August 1, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 783 (-19.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 821 (-11) yuan/dry ton [5] - The total global iron ore shipments increased by 918,000 tons week - on - week. From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, and the shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, an increase of 2039,000 tons week - on - week [5] - The arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 1.921 million tons. From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons week - on - week [5] - The daily average hot metal output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons week - on - week and an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year [5] - As of August 1, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 1.7367 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.2687 million tons week - on - week [5] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 58.88 percentage points year - on - year [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas, the US PCE data in June accelerated, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was dampened again; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required the governance of disorderly competition and capacity management in key industries [7] - In terms of supply and demand, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to increase, the arrivals and domestic port inventories declined; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the hot metal output continued to decline slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons [7] - Technically, the I2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated downward, with the daily K - line under pressure below the MA5 moving average, and it tested the support near MA20 (775) in the short term; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA adjusted downward, and the green bar expanded [7] - It is recommended that the I2509 contract may enter a range - bound situation. Short - term trading is advisable, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract adjusted downward and was weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 1st, the spread was 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On August 1, the warehouse receipt volume of iron ore at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3600 lots, an increase of 200 lots week - on - week [19] - On August 1, the net position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was a net short of 20,512 lots, a decrease of 4651 lots compared with the previous week [19] 3.2.3 Spot Price - On August 1, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/dry ton week - on - week [25] - This week, the spot price of iron ore was higher than the futures price. On the 1st, the basis was 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Shipments and Arrivals - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, an increase of 918,000 tons week - on - week. The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, an increase of 2.039 million tons week - on - week [29] - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 22.405 million tons, a decrease of 1.307 million tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 11.573 million tons, a decrease of 2.319 million tons week - on - week [29] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 1.7367 million tons week - on - week; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, a decrease of 1.142 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 61.0885 million tons, a decrease of 2.004 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 51.9207 million tons, an increase of 0.5247 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 90.4245 million tons, a decrease of 1.4112 million tons [33] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.2687 million tons week - on - week; the current daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.9946 million tons, a decrease of 0.0164 million tons week - on - week; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.09 days, an increase of 0.58 days week - on - week [33] 3.3.3 Inventory Availability and Shipping Index - As of July 30, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory of large and medium - sized steel mills in China were 21 days, a flat week - on - week [36] - On July 31, the BDI shipping index was 2003, a decrease of 254 week - on - week [36] 3.3.4 Import and Mine Capacity Utilization - In June 2025, China's imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 105.948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%; from January to June, the imports were 592.205 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39] - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines nationwide was 64.48%, an increase of 0.68% compared with the previous period; the average daily output of fine powder was 406,800 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory was 410,000 tons, a decrease of 44,500 tons week - on - week [39] 3.3.5 Domestic Ore Production - In June 2025, China's raw iron ore output was 88.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [42] - In June, the output of iron fine powder of 433 iron mines nationwide was 23.304 million tons, a decrease of 0.762 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 137.753 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.932 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% [42] 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production and Steel Trade - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [45] - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, China imported 0.47 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.011 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [45] 3.4.2 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Output - On August 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, flat week - on - week, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points week - on - week [48] - On August 1, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons week - on - week, an increase of 4.09 million tons year - on - year [48] 3.5 Option Market - It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options as the iron ore port inventory is declining, the hot metal output is running at a high level, but the optimistic sentiment has faded, and the sharp decline of coking coal has led to the weakening of the black - related sector, and iron ore may enter a range - bound and weakening situation [51]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures prices have risen for two consecutive days, driven by a decrease in shipment volumes and sustained strong demand, raising questions about the market's ability to maintain this momentum [1] Group 1 - Iron ore futures prices have experienced a consecutive increase, indicating a potential upward trend in the market [1] - The decline in shipment volumes suggests a tightening supply situation, which could further support price increases [1] - Strong demand for iron ore remains a critical factor in the market dynamics, contributing to the recent price rises [1]