| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月12日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前自 | 张跃 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3290 | 3320 | -30 | 201 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | 191 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3144 | 3187 | -43 | 146 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3196 | 3235 | -39 | 94 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3086 | 3130 | -41 | 201 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3290 | -20 | 15 | 元/中 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3190 | 3210 | -20 | -62 | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡回落 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.10%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应回升，而需求季节性走弱，基本面表现相对偏弱，淡季钢价 继续承压，相对利好的是成本支撑，预计钢价延续震荡运行态势，关注 钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.33%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷需求表现良好，带来供需格局好转，给予价格支撑，但需求韧 性存疑，且库存水平偏高，上行驱动预计不强，后续走势延续震荡运行 为主，关注钢厂生产情况。 铁矿石：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0.44%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，得益于现货结构性矛盾和节前补库预期，铁矿石高位偏强运行，但 矿石需求走 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, showing a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not clearly given in the provided content Core Views - The steel market has weak market sentiment, but there is cost support below, and the overall market continues the range - bound pattern. The iron ore market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a range - bound state after the price corrects the discount. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to try long positions at low prices [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined and then rebounded today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased this week, while production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and the de - stocking accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron has stabilized. The overall domestic demand in the downstream industry is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The market sentiment is still weak, and the market continues the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was strongly range - bound today. The global shipment is strong, and it is expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume is also strong, and the port inventory has continued to increase significantly. The terminal demand in the off - season is at a low level, but molten iron has stabilized at a low level this week. The steel mill inventory is at a low level, and there is a certain restocking expectation. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the short - term market trend is expected to be range - bound [2] Coke - The coke price was range - bound during the day. There is still an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, which is expected to be implemented after New Year's Day. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price was mainly range - bound during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price was strongly range - bound during the day. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. There is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory. The demand for iron and steel has decreased seasonally. The weekly production and inventory of silicomanganese have slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price was strongly range - bound during the day. There is an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee, and there is an expectation of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The demand for iron and steel has rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand has decreased, but the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has a rebound in the trading floor today. However, the overall domestic demand remains weak, and the future trend depends on the actual implementation of policies. The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a weak and volatile price trend. The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are in a state of shock, and their bottom - support strength needs to be observed [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Commodity Steel - The trading floor rebounds today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreases month - on - month, production drops significantly, and inventory continues to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decline, inventory decreases slowly, and the pressure remains to be alleviated. Iron - water production continues to decline. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high in the later stage. The domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high in November. Favorable news in the real - estate sector improves market sentiment, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor rises today. The global shipment increases month - on - month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreases month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year, and port inventory continues to accumulate. Terminal demand is low in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are loose, with a short - term liquidity disturbance for some ore types and a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term [2] Coke - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The market still expects a second - round price cut for coke. Coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory slightly decreases, and downstream buyers purchase on a small scale as needed. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [3] Coking Coal - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The production of coking coal mines slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices mainly decline. The total inventory of coking coal slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly increases. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuates during the day. Driven by the rebound of the trading floor, the spot price of manganese ore rises. Comilog's quotation slightly increases month - on - month, and the reported volume decreases month - on - month. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory. Iron - water production decreases seasonally. Silicon manganese production slightly decreases, and inventory slowly accumulates. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [6] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuates during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increases, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production rebounds to a high - level range. Export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increases month - on - month, and the secondary demand marginally increases. Supply decreases, inventory slightly decreases, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Not rated [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is in a low-level range oscillation. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, the cost side of coal and coke continues to decline, and the upward momentum of the disk is insufficient, but there is still support below [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate with a marginal loosening of fundamentals due to strong global shipments, weak steel demand in the off-season, and a deteriorating profitability of steel mills [3]. - The coke price may oscillate weakly with a general coking profit, a slight decrease in daily production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [4]. - The coking coal price may oscillate weakly with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slight increase in production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [5]. - The silicon manganese price has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation due to an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slow increase in inventory, and a small increase in manganese ore inventory [6]. - The silicon iron price may have a loosening bottom support with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a continuous decline in inventory, and an overall resilient demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk oscillated downward. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased month-on-month, production decreased synchronously, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down [2]. - The molten iron production increased slightly, but the downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, the proportion of steel mill losses expanded, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the later stage was high, gradually alleviating the supply pressure [2]. - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. Steel exports declined from a high level [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments were strong, and the shipment volume in the peak season was expected to remain high. The domestic arrival volume declined to below the annual average level, and the port inventory declined at the beginning of the week, with certain short-term structural fluctuations [3]. - On the demand side, the steel demand in the off-season was weak, the profitability of steel mills deteriorated, the molten iron production rebounded last week but was still in the seasonal production reduction trend, and there was further room for production cuts in the future, although the production reduction speed might slow down [3]. - At the macro level, it was in a policy vacuum period, temporarily lacking expected drivers [3]. Coke - The price dropped significantly during the day. The coking profit was still average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities, while the purchasing willingness of traders was average [4]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [4]. Coking Coal - The price dropped significantly during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and the price dropped accordingly. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated [5]. - The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal-producing areas, and the relevant impacts needed attention [5]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [5]. Silicon Manganese - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices [6]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a relatively high level, and the silicon manganese inventory increased slowly [6]. - The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, the spot ore prices fluctuated quickly following the disk, and the manganese ore inventory increased slightly, with no prominent contradictions [6]. Silicon Iron - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices [7]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall resilient demand [7]. - The silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel data shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding but remains at an off - season level. August demand declined significantly, mainly due to poor rebar demand, which widened the coil - rebar spread to around 290. The market is still weak this week, with steel prices falling. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering demand and coking coal supply, steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. It is recommended to try long positions [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the 2601 iron ore contract showed a weak and volatile trend, with a rebound on Friday night. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also rose. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin is at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and the hot metal output remained high. However, the downstream apparent demand decreased, and steel prices were weak. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. After the Tangshan steel mill's 15 - day production restriction starting from August 20, the hot metal output will decline, and the restocking demand will weaken. But after the short - term production restriction, the hot metal output will rebound, and the basis of the 09 contract will be repaired, which will support the futures price. It is recommended to go long at low prices and conduct a 1 - 5 long - short spread arbitrage [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a rebound at the end of Friday. The spot auction price declined slightly, and the Mongolian coal price was weak. On the supply side, coal mine production increased, but sales slowed down, and some mines started to reduce prices. Imported coal prices also fell, and downstream restocking was cautious. On the demand side, coking plant production increased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace hot metal output fluctuated at a high level, but the restocking demand slowed down. Considering the production restriction of Tangshan steel mills before the parade, the hot metal output will decline in late August. The overall inventory is slightly lower at a medium level. The spot market is stable but weak. The near - month contract has support as the futures price is lower than the warehouse receipt cost, and the 9 - 1 spread has a narrowing trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract and conduct a long - coking - coal short - coke spread arbitrage [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3239 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 3020 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton without change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 3185 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions generally declined [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal output was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 tons to 878.1 tons, with the rebar output decreasing by 5.8 tons to 214.7 tons and the hot - rolled coil output increasing by 9.7 tons to 325.2 tons. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 tons to 1441.0 tons, the rebar inventory increased by 19.8 tons to 607.0 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 361.4 tons [1]. Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreasing from 800.0 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads changed to different extents [3]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 94.7 tons to 2476.6 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 359.9 tons to 3406.6 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 tons to 10462.3 tons. On the demand side, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, the 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 8.9 tons to 325.7 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Iron Ore Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 11.2 tons to 13845.2 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 tons to 9065.5 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke changed to different extents. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke and coking coal increased, and the basis and spreads also changed. The coking plant profit decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with the all - sample coking plant's coke inventory increasing, the 247 steel mills' coke inventory slightly decreasing, and the port inventory slightly decreasing. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, the all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased, and the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory increased [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Suggest a wait - and - see approach for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After previous adjustments, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products. It is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly, such as the prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions and some futures contracts of rebar [1]. Cost and Profit - The costs of some steel production processes decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased slightly, and the profits of rebar decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the rebar output decreased. The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased [1]. Market Outlook - The rebar data has deteriorated, with a significant decline in August demand. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand are stable. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed slightly [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side shows that the iron water output remains at a high level, but the downstream demand has declined [4]. Inventory - The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of some steel mills increased [4]. Market Outlook - In August, the iron water output will decline slightly. After the previous adjustment, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The coking enterprise's production increased slightly, and the demand side shows that the blast furnace iron water output fluctuates at a high level. The supply of coking coal has increased, and the downstream demand has slowed down [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased overall, and the coking coal inventory is at a medium level with different trends in different sectors [6]. Market Outlook - The seventh round of coke price increase is still expected. For both coke and coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract futures price fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.75%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The market sentiment has warmed up, but the supply - demand pattern is weak, so the steel price is still under pressure. However, the low - inventory situation limits the downside space. It is expected to continue the fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation, with a daily increase of 0.41%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Although the fundamentals have weakened under the situation of increasing supply and demand, production - restriction disturbances are fermenting, the real - world contradictions are not significant, and raw materials are relatively strong. The price is expected to continue the upward - fluctuating trend, and overseas risks should be monitored [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract futures price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.06%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. The demand for ore has certain resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the supply is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. It is predicted to continue the high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - **Automobile industry**: The Passenger Car Association slightly raised the industry's annual forecast. Passenger car retail sales are expected to reach 24.35 million units in 2025, a 6% increase year - on - year, and the forecast volume is 300,000 units more than the June forecast. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.8% and 33.3% respectively [6]. - **Global manufacturing**: In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, showing weak operation. The Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, remaining above 50% for three consecutive months and continuing to support global economic recovery [7]. - **Steel industry**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease from the previous period; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 185,600 tons, a 4.5% decrease; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 209,100 tons, a 0.5% increase [8]. Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) were 3,404 yuan/ton and 3,496 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Tangshan billet (Q235) and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) were 3,090 yuan/ton and 2,140 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 yuan/ton, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 776 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 752 yuan/ton. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 9.65 yuan/ton and 23.64 yuan/ton respectively. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.91, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 101.65 [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,234 | 0.75 | 1,202,766 | - 377,887 | 1,652,569 | - 56,263 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,451 | 0.41 | 561,631 | - 173,827 | 1,460,175 | - 1,559 | | Iron ore | 794.5 | - 0.06 | 208,804 | 10,737 | 358,293 | - 26,208 | [13] Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal inventory and inventory changes [21][25][27]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - **Rebar**: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production is weakly stable, with weekly output decreasing slightly by 0.90 tons. Demand has also declined, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 13.17 tons. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and inventory changes should be monitored [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply has increased with the resumption of production after maintenance, and there is room for further growth. Demand has certain resilience, but there are concerns about external demand. The price is expected to continue to rise with fluctuations, and overseas risks should be noted [39]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, with a decline in terminal consumption. However, the profitability of steel mills is good, so the demand has certain resilience. The supply is increasing steadily. The price is expected to continue high - level oscillatory consolidation, and the performance of finished products should be watched [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market may enter a period of range - bound and weakening. The market's optimistic sentiment has faded, and the iron ore futures price is under pressure to decline. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options [7][51] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of August 1, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 783 (-19.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 821 (-11) yuan/dry ton [5] - The total global iron ore shipments increased by 918,000 tons week - on - week. From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, and the shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, an increase of 2039,000 tons week - on - week [5] - The arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 1.921 million tons. From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons week - on - week [5] - The daily average hot metal output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons week - on - week and an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year [5] - As of August 1, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 1.7367 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.2687 million tons week - on - week [5] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 58.88 percentage points year - on - year [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas, the US PCE data in June accelerated, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was dampened again; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required the governance of disorderly competition and capacity management in key industries [7] - In terms of supply and demand, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to increase, the arrivals and domestic port inventories declined; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the hot metal output continued to decline slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons [7] - Technically, the I2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated downward, with the daily K - line under pressure below the MA5 moving average, and it tested the support near MA20 (775) in the short term; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA adjusted downward, and the green bar expanded [7] - It is recommended that the I2509 contract may enter a range - bound situation. Short - term trading is advisable, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract adjusted downward and was weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 1st, the spread was 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On August 1, the warehouse receipt volume of iron ore at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3600 lots, an increase of 200 lots week - on - week [19] - On August 1, the net position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was a net short of 20,512 lots, a decrease of 4651 lots compared with the previous week [19] 3.2.3 Spot Price - On August 1, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/dry ton week - on - week [25] - This week, the spot price of iron ore was higher than the futures price. On the 1st, the basis was 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Shipments and Arrivals - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, an increase of 918,000 tons week - on - week. The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, an increase of 2.039 million tons week - on - week [29] - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 22.405 million tons, a decrease of 1.307 million tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 11.573 million tons, a decrease of 2.319 million tons week - on - week [29] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 1.7367 million tons week - on - week; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, a decrease of 1.142 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 61.0885 million tons, a decrease of 2.004 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 51.9207 million tons, an increase of 0.5247 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 90.4245 million tons, a decrease of 1.4112 million tons [33] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.2687 million tons week - on - week; the current daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.9946 million tons, a decrease of 0.0164 million tons week - on - week; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.09 days, an increase of 0.58 days week - on - week [33] 3.3.3 Inventory Availability and Shipping Index - As of July 30, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory of large and medium - sized steel mills in China were 21 days, a flat week - on - week [36] - On July 31, the BDI shipping index was 2003, a decrease of 254 week - on - week [36] 3.3.4 Import and Mine Capacity Utilization - In June 2025, China's imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 105.948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%; from January to June, the imports were 592.205 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39] - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines nationwide was 64.48%, an increase of 0.68% compared with the previous period; the average daily output of fine powder was 406,800 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory was 410,000 tons, a decrease of 44,500 tons week - on - week [39] 3.3.5 Domestic Ore Production - In June 2025, China's raw iron ore output was 88.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [42] - In June, the output of iron fine powder of 433 iron mines nationwide was 23.304 million tons, a decrease of 0.762 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 137.753 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.932 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% [42] 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production and Steel Trade - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [45] - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, China imported 0.47 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.011 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [45] 3.4.2 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Output - On August 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, flat week - on - week, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points week - on - week [48] - On August 1, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons week - on - week, an increase of 4.09 million tons year - on - year [48] 3.5 Option Market - It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options as the iron ore port inventory is declining, the hot metal output is running at a high level, but the optimistic sentiment has faded, and the sharp decline of coking coal has led to the weakening of the black - related sector, and iron ore may enter a range - bound and weakening situation [51]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures prices have risen for two consecutive days, driven by a decrease in shipment volumes and sustained strong demand, raising questions about the market's ability to maintain this momentum [1] Group 1 - Iron ore futures prices have experienced a consecutive increase, indicating a potential upward trend in the market [1] - The decline in shipment volumes suggests a tightening supply situation, which could further support price increases [1] - Strong demand for iron ore remains a critical factor in the market dynamics, contributing to the recent price rises [1]