Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar was weakly volatile, with a daily decline of 0.51%, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have changed, and the inventory inflection point has appeared. However, the improvement of demand is limited, and the upward driving force of steel prices is not strong. The relatively positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil was volatile, with a daily decline of 0.36%, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, thanks to the strong demand resilience, the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil has improved. Coupled with the cost support brought by the strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil has rebounded from the low level. However, the supply is increasing, and there are concerns about demand. The subsequent trend of the high - inventory situation should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore was volatile at a high level, with a daily decline of 0.55%, the trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. At present, the previous positive factors have supported the high - level operation of ore prices. However, under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the ore market are weakly stable, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will continue to be volatile at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - On March 19, Shenyang optimized and adjusted 5 housing provident fund loan and withdrawal policies, including raising the maximum loan amount, expanding the scope of "commercial - to - provident fund" loans, canceling the limit on the number of provident fund loans, supporting the purchase of parking spaces, and increasing the amount of rental withdrawal [7]. - In February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 21.8% and 14.2%. From January to February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 8.8% and 6.9%. In February 2026, the domestic sales of new - energy vehicles were 483,000, with a month - on - month decrease of 24.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.4%. From January to February 2026, the domestic sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.126 million, with a year - on - year decrease of 27.5% [8]. - From January to February 2026, China's crude steel production was 160.335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. Hebei ranked first with a production of 34.2705 million tons, Jiangsu ranked second with 20.0901 million tons, and Shandong ranked third with 11.062 million tons [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,210, 3,190, and 3,334 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 10, and - 9 [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280, 3,220, and 3,313 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 4 [10]. - Tangshan billet: The spot price was 2,980, with no change [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price was 2,200, with no change [10]. - Main variety spreads: The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 70, and the rebar - scrap spread was 1,010, with changes of 10 and - 20 respectively [10]. - PB powder: The price at Shandong ports was 785, with a change of - 3 [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder: The price (wet basis) was 772, with no change [10]. - Freight rates: The Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 12.63 and 29.70 respectively, with changes of - 0.70 and 0.01 [10]. - SGX swap: The price (current month) was 106.30, with a change of - 0.80 [10]. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): The price was 108.50, with a change of - 1.50 [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,135, with a decline of 0.51%. The highest price was 3,145, the lowest price was 3,122, the trading volume was 648,797, the volume difference was - 211,703, the open interest was 1,449,246, and the open - interest difference was - 65,665 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,302, with a decline of 0.36%. The highest price was 3,315, the lowest price was 3,295, the trading volume was 287,920, the volume difference was - 70,431, the open interest was 1,143,177, and the open - interest difference was - 28,781 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 807.5, with a decline of 0.55%. The highest price was 812.5, the lowest price was 803.0, the trading volume was 193,106, the volume difference was 3,905, the open interest was 446,896, and the open - interest difference was - 8,625 [14]. Related Charts - Steel inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - Iron ore inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate powder [25][26][29]. - Steel mill production: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making proportion of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [33][35][40]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons, and the inventory is starting to decline but is still higher than last year. The demand has improved seasonally, but the high - frequency transactions are weak. The upward driving force of steel prices is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, focusing on demand performance [41]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand have both increased. The output of hot - rolled coil increased by 49,500 tons week - on - week, and the inventory is still high. The demand is resilient, but there are concerns. The price has rebounded from the low level, but the subsequent trend of the high - inventory situation should be viewed with caution, focusing on demand performance [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The terminal consumption of ore has declined, and the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has decreased again, but the overseas shipments have increased. The previous positive factors have supported the high - level operation of ore prices, but the upward driving force is not strong, and it will continue to be volatile at a high level, focusing on the performance of steel [42].

Report Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆★ [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★ [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicomanganese**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The market confidence is insufficient, and the rebound of the steel plate is facing setbacks with repeated rhythms. Attention should be paid to market trends and relevant policy changes. The supply of iron ore is in excess, and although the demand has marginal improvement expectations, the supply pressure is greater. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water is at a low level in the off - season. The market has strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and the prices of coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon may have upward drivers [2][3][4] Summary by Category Steel - The steel plate fell today. After the festival, the apparent demand for thread steel increased month - on - month, with low production and continued inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils increased month - on - month, with stable production and continued inventory accumulation. Due to poor steel mill profits and insufficient downstream carrying capacity, the iron - water production remained at a relatively low level. The real estate investment decline continued to expand, and the new - house sales during the Spring Festival were poor. The investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline, and the overall domestic demand was still weak, while steel exports remained high [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore plate fluctuated today. The global shipment increased significantly month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory was at a historical high. The expectation of iron ore supply surplus was still strong. After the festival, the terminal demand recovered, and the iron - water production continued to resume, but there were certain production - restriction disturbances around the Two Sessions. Overall, the demand for iron ore had marginal improvement expectations, but the supply surplus pressure was relatively greater, and the recent plate price was suppressed [3] Coke - The coke price fell during the day. The coking profit was average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, the downstream iron - water was at a low level in the off - season, the steel profit level was average, and the price - pressing sentiment for raw materials was still strong. The coke plate had a premium, and the coking coal plate had a premium over Mongolian coal. The market had certain expectations for relevant policies, and the price might have upward drivers [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fell during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,477 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were inversely proportional to the plate fluctuations. Affected by the plate price fluctuations, the transaction prices mainly decreased slightly, and the terminal inventory increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. The winter - storage demand was coming to an end. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, the downstream iron - water was at a low level in the off - season, the steel profit level was average, and the price - pressing sentiment for raw materials was still strong. The coke plate had a premium, and the coking coal plate had a premium over Mongolian coal. The market had strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and the price might have upward drivers [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price increased significantly during the day. The South African electricity price still had an upward - adjustment driver in the 206 fiscal year, which had little impact on manganese ore mining. Attention should be paid to whether the export tax rate would be adjusted. The spot manganese ore transaction price increased slightly, and the plate entered a non - arbitrage space with relatively limited downward space. The manganese ore port inventory might start to slowly increase, and the mine - end shipment increased month - on - month, but the mine cost had increased compared with previous years, and the price - concession space might be relatively limited. The iron - water production at the demand end remained at a seasonal low level. The weekly production of silicomanganese increased slightly, and there was hardly any significant downward - driving force. The silicomanganese inventory increased slightly. The market had strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and it was likely to fluctuate strongly [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price increased slightly during the day. The power cost in some production areas decreased, the semi - coke price remained flat, and the main production areas were still mainly in losses, but the Inner Mongolia production area turned profitable. The iron - water production at the demand end remained at a low level in the off - season. The export demand remained above 30,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The metal magnesium production increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still had resilience. The ferrosilicon supply changed little, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market had strong expectations for next month's meeting policies, and it was likely to fluctuate strongly [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the US employment market is better than expected, slowing down interest - rate cut expectations, while China continues its loose monetary policy. In the industrial aspect, the shipment and arrival volume of iron ore have declined due to weather conditions. Downstream steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and molten iron production have continued to increase slightly. Port inventories have changed from increasing to decreasing but remain at a historical high. After the Spring Festival, steel mills will mainly consume in - plant inventories. It is recommended to trade the I2605 contract with a weak - oscillation trend and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control. It is also suggested to hold long positions in put options [8][55] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on February 13, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 746 (- 14.5) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 803 (- 12) yuan/dry ton [6] 3.1.2 Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 559.3 tons week - on - week. From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2535.3 tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 1948.9 tons, a decrease of 572.1 tons week - on - week. Australian shipments were 1279.8 tons, down 540.6 tons week - on - week, with 1097.5 tons shipped to China, a decrease of 521.6 tons week - on - week. Brazilian shipments were 669.0 tons, a decrease of 31.5 tons week - on - week [5][6][30] 3.1.3 Arrival - From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2455.6 tons, a decrease of 213.6 tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2361.3 tons, a decrease of 123.4 tons week - on - week; and the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1264.0 tons, a decrease of 24.7 tons week - on - week [6][30] 3.1.4 Demand - The daily average molten iron production was 230.49 tons, an increase of 1.91 tons week - on - week and 2.50 tons year - on - year [6] 3.1.5 Inventory - As of February 13, 2026, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 17732.12 tons, a decrease of 182.56 tons week - on - week and an increase of 1727.59 tons year - on - year. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 10703.93 tons, an increase of 387.29 tons week - on - week and 1561.12 tons year - on - year [6] 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 38.53%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week and 12.12 percentage points year - on - year [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2605 contract oscillated downward. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 13th, the price difference was 15.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton week - on - week [14] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On February 13, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 2900, with a week - on - week increase of 0. The net position of the top 20 in the iron ore futures contract was a net short position of 22916, an increase of 9730 compared with the previous week [21] 3.2.3 Spot Price - On February 13, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 803 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton week - on - week [27] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival and Shipment - From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume and the arrival volume at Chinese ports decreased [30] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 182.56 tons, while the average daily port clearance volume increased by 9.59 tons. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and traded ore decreased. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills increased by 387.29 tons, the daily consumption of imported ore increased by 3.30 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 0.93 days [33] 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days and Shipping Index - As of February 12, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 30 days, a decrease of 1 day week - on - week. On February 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2095, an increase of 172 week - on - week [38] 3.3.4 Import and Mine Capacity Utilization - In December, China imported 11964.7 tons of iron ore and concentrates, an increase of 910.7 tons month - on - month and 8.2% month - on - month. From January to December, the cumulative import volume was 125870.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 61.47%, a decrease of 1.67% compared with the previous period [42] 3.3.5 Iron Ore Production - In December 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 7934.49 tons, a decrease of 368.31 tons month - on - month. The cumulative production from January to December was 100207.71 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2401.88 tons. In December, the iron concentrate production of 433 domestic iron mines was 2228.5 tons, a decrease of 52.6 tons month - on - month, a decline of 2.3% [45] 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production and Steel Trade - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 6818 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The annual crude steel production in 2025 was 96081 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In December 2025, China exported 1130.1 tons of steel, an increase of 132.1 tons month - on - month and 13.2% month - on - month; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 11901.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 51.7 tons of steel, an increase of 2.1 tons month - on - month and 4.2% month - on - month; the cumulative import volume from January to December was 605.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [49] 3.4.2 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Production - On February 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.13%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points week - on - week and 2.15 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.41%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points week - on - week and 0.81 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 230.49 tons, an increase of 1.91 tons week - on - week and 2.50 tons year - on - year [52] 3.5 Options Market - Due to the high iron ore port inventory and steel mills' focus on consuming in - plant inventory after the Spring Festival, the futures price may oscillate weakly. It is recommended to hold long positions in put options [55]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.51%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing positions. Currently, rebar supply remains stable at a high level while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation continues its seasonal weakness. During the off - season, rebar prices are under pressure, but cost support is a positive factor. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.34%, and both volume and positions decreased. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are at a high level, and the fundamental situation is weak. If demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to intensify. It is expected that steel prices will be under pressure and fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore trended weakly, with a daily decline of 1.14%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. Currently, overseas supply has stabilized and inventory is high, resulting in a large supply pressure for iron ore. Meanwhile, iron ore demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of the iron ore market is not good. It is expected that iron ore prices will remain under pressure and trend weakly, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, the China Construction Machinery Market Index (CMI) was 109.99, an increase of 5.19% year - on - year and a decrease of 3.16% month - on - month. The index value in January was higher than the contraction value, indicating short - term stable operation of the domestic market. The year - on - year growth rate of the CMI index in January increased slightly by 0.18 percentage points, while the month - on - month growth rate decreased by 6.01 percentage points, showing an evolution trend of year - on - year improvement and seasonal month - on - month decline [7]. - According to data from the China Index Academy on February 1, in January, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 Chinese cities was 17,114 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.18% and a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. The average price of second - hand residential buildings was 12,905 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67%. The new housing prices in 100 cities showed a structural month - on - month increase, but the overall market performance was dull, and the month - on - month increase rate narrowed compared with the previous month. The month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in 100 cities also narrowed [8]. - According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, in January 2026, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced 15 anti - dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products by foreign countries. The涉案 products included carbon steel galvanized wire mesh, cold - rolled steel sheets, hot - rolled coils, stainless - steel sinks, and silicon - manganese steel wires [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rebar**: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,160 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,311 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan [10]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,160 yuan; the national average price was 3,291 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan [10]. - **Tangshan Steel Billet**: The price was 2,920 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap**: The price was 2,160 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [10]. - **Main Product Spreads**: The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 60 yuan, unchanged; the rebar - scrap spread was 1,040 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore - related**: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 773 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron ore concentrate (wet - based) was 773 yuan, unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.70 yuan (previous day's data), an increase of 0.01 yuan; from Brazil, it was 25.83 yuan (previous day's data), an increase of 0.82 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 102.65 yuan (previous day's data), a decrease of 2.97 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 102.40 (previous day's data), a decrease of 0.80 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,099 yuan, a decrease of 0.51%. The highest price was 3,118 yuan, the lowest was 3,095 yuan. The trading volume was 685,806 lots, a decrease of 448,598 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 1,805,126 lots, an increase of 21,029 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,265 yuan, a decrease of 0.34%. The highest price was 3,283 yuan, the lowest was 3,257 yuan. The trading volume was 335,114 lots, a decrease of 194,382 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 1,477,230 lots, a decrease of 21,563 lots [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 777.5 yuan, a decrease of 1.14%. The highest price was 797.0 yuan, the lowest was 774.5 yuan. The trading volume was 357,056 lots, an increase of 52,492 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 518,849 lots, a decrease of 1,835 lots [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil over time, including weekly changes, total inventory (steel mills + social inventory), etc. [16][17][22] - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron ore concentrate inventory, as well as their seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [24][25][28] - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts display the blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [32][34][36] 3.5后市研判 (Outlook) - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, and inventory growth has expanded. The production of construction steel mills has stabilized, with the weekly rebar output increasing slightly by 0.28 tons month - on - month, and supply remains stable at a high level. However, considering that short - process steel mills will gradually stop production approaching the Spring Festival, supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to weaken, with the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions decreasing month - on - month and remaining at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The off - season weak - demand pattern remains unchanged, dragging down steel prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [40]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: There are changes in both supply and demand, and inventory destocking has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills has stabilized, with the weekly hot - rolled coil output increasing by 3.80 tons month - on - month, rising again and remaining at a relatively high level, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, attention should be paid to the accumulation of contradictions. The external demand for exports is average, and the resilience of demand needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are at a high level, and the fundamental situation is weak. If demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to intensify. It is expected that steel prices will be under pressure and fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed little, and inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is stable. The average daily hot - metal output and imported - ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month last week, and the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating. Steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that iron ore demand will continue to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase, so overseas iron ore supply has stabilized, while domestic iron ore supply is stable. Coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore remains. It is expected that iron ore prices will remain under pressure and trend weakly, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.29%. The supply of rebar has increased to a high level, while the demand is weak. The fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. With cost support and positive sentiment, the downward resistance increases. The steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The supply of hot - rolled coil has decreased, but the inventory is high and the pressure remains. The demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The speculative demand is acceptable, and the trend is expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore weakened and declined, with a daily decrease of 0.95%. The supply of ore has shrunk, but the inventory is high, and the positive effect is not strong. The demand is weak, and the fundamentals of the ore have not improved. The ore price is still prone to pressure. The positive factors are the steel mills' replenishment and the positive sentiment of commodities. The ore price is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' replenishment [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry Dynamics - As of January 26, 2026, the total new - signed contract value of 7 major construction central enterprises in 2025 exceeded 11.7 trillion yuan. China State Construction's new - signed contract value in 2025 was 454.58 billion yuan. In the construction business, the new - signed contract value was 415.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. In the real estate business, the contract sales volume was 39.48 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [7]. - Thailand made a second anti - dumping sunset review final ruling on cold - rolled carbon steel coils and non - coils from China (mainland, Taiwan region) and Vietnam, maintaining the original tax rate and continuing to impose an anti - dumping tax on the products at the CIF price for 5 years. The tax rate for mainland China is 9.24% - 20.11% for cold - rolled carbon steel products with a width greater than 1550 mm [8]. - The World Steel Association reported that the global crude steel production in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons. In December 2025, the crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the statistics decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. The production in different regions showed different trends, such as a decrease of 6.3% in Asia and Oceania and an increase of 3.9% in the EU (27 countries) [9]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan, Tianjin was 3,170 yuan, and the national average was 3,324 yuan. For hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, it was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin 3,180 yuan, and the national average was 3,304 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,950 yuan, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan. The coil - rebar spread was 40 yuan, and the rebar - scrap spread was 1,120 yuan. For iron ore, the price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 787 yuan, and Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 782 yuan. The sea freight from Australia was 7.80 yuan, and from Brazil 21.59 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.87 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 104.65 yuan [10]. Futures Market - In the futures market, the closing price of rebar was 3,143 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.29%, a trading volume of 809,245 lots, and an open interest decrease of 10,906 lots. The closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3,302 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.12%, a trading volume of 391,114 lots, and an open interest increase of 27,500 lots. The closing price of iron ore was 784.5 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.95%, a trading volume of 261,690 lots, and an open interest decrease of 636 lots [12]. Related Charts - The report presents various inventory and production - related charts, including steel inventory (rebar, hot - rolled coil), iron ore inventory (45 - port, 247 - steel - mill, domestic mine iron concentrate powder), and steel - mill production situation (247 - sample steel - mill blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent - electric - furnace operating rate, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material - independent - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation) [14][22][27] 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply has increased to a high level, and the demand is weak. The fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. With cost support and positive sentiment, the downward resistance increases. The steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [34]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply has decreased, but the inventory is high and the pressure remains. The demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The speculative demand is acceptable, and the trend is expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [34]. - For iron ore, the supply has shrunk, but the inventory is high, and the positive effect is not strong. The demand is weak, and the fundamentals of the ore have not improved. The ore price is still prone to pressure. The positive factors are the steel mills' replenishment and the positive sentiment of commodities. The ore price is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' replenishment [35].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose 0.06% after hitting a high and falling back, with increasing volume and open interest. Given the weak demand, stable supply, and weakening commodity sentiment, rebar prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated, rising 0.33% with increasing volume and open interest. Although the demand for hot-rolled coil is resilient and the fundamentals are stable, the supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. If demand weakens, industrial contradictions may accumulate, and prices may face pressure. In the short term, prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, falling 0.49% with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Despite positive commodity sentiment and lingering bullish factors, the supply of iron ore is high while demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Ore prices will oscillate at a high level, and there is a risk of prices weakening if the trading logic switches to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The Financial Regulatory Administration aims to promote the regular operation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, resolve risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, and prevent and resolve risks in related fields [7]. - In December 2025, the sales of various excavators reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. In 2025, a total of 235,257 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 17% [8]. - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is restarting a $29 billion iron ore export development plan, aiming to build a comprehensive mining and infrastructure project in the northern region, with an initial planned annual export capacity of about 50 million tons [9]. 2. Spot Market - In the spot market, prices and price changes are provided for rebar, hot-rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, PB fines, Tangshan iron concentrate, freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indexes [10]. 3. Futures Market - In the futures market, the relevant information of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, including closing price, price change percentage, high and low price, trading volume, change in trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest, is presented [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil [14][15][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal patterns, inventory of 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [22][23][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, proportion of profitable steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and profit and loss situation of steel mills [29][31][32]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply is weakly stable, and there is a possibility of increased production. Demand has improved but remains at a low level, and prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [37]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Supply is at a high level, and there are concerns about demand. The short-term trend will be oscillating, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is high, and demand is weakly stable. Ore prices will oscillate at a high level, and there is a risk of prices weakening if the trading logic switches to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The steel market shows that the spot price of steel has increased, and the cost and profit situation is mixed. The fundamental apparent demand has decreased seasonally, mainly due to the decline in the apparent demand for rebar. Inventory is about to enter the off - season inventory accumulation trend. The price is expected to maintain an interval shock in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and that for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a high - level shock in the main contract. The supply side's global shipment volume has declined, and the demand side's molten iron continues to resume production. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term. The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a short - term wide - range shock, and the strategy is interval operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke futures continue to rise, and the market is weakly stable. The supply side's production has increased, and the demand side's molten iron production has recovered. The inventory has increased slightly in the middle position. The strategy is to go long on the dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. The coking coal futures also continue to rise, with the supply side's production increasing slightly and the demand side's demand for replenishment warming up. The inventory has also increased slightly in the middle position, and the strategy is the same as that for coke [6]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The silicon iron main contract has a small increase, with production basically flat and at a low level in the same period of history. The demand has support, and the inventory has decreased. The cost has certain support, and it can be tried to go long on the dips, with a support level of about 5500. The silicon manganese main contract has a small increase, with supply at a low - to - medium level in the same period of history. The manganese ore price provides support, and it is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it can be tried to go long on the dips, with a support level of about 5800 [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Spread**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions have increased or remained unchanged, and the futures prices have small fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China is 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price has decreased by 10 yuan to 2970 yuan, and the profits of different regions and varieties of steel are different. For example, the profit of rebar in East China is - 20 yuan, down 40 yuan [1]. - **Output**: The daily average molten iron output is 229.0 tons, up 0.7% from the previous day. The output of five major steel products is 818.6 tons, up 0.4%. The output of rebar is 191.0 tons, up 1.5%, and the output of hot - rolled coils is 305.5 tons, up 0.3% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is 1253.9 tons, up 1.8%. The inventory of rebar is 438.1 tons, up 3.8%, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils is 368.1 tons, down 0.8% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume is 10.6 tons, up 18.5%. The apparent demand of five major steel products is 796.8 tons, down 5.3%. The apparent demand of rebar is 175.0 tons, down 12.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils is 308.3 tons, down 0.8% [1]. Iron Ore - **Price and Spread**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders have increased, and the basis of the 05 contract has decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder is 887.5 yuan/ton, up 0.7%. The 05 - contract basis of PB powder is 65.0 yuan/ton, down 2.1% [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume is 2920.4 tons, up 5.9%, and the global shipment volume is 3213.7 tons, down 1.0%. The national monthly import volume is 11054.0 tons, down 0.7% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 tons, up 0.9%. The 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume is 323.3 tons, down 0.6%. The national monthly pig iron output is 6234.3 tons, down 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output is 6987.1 tons, down 3.0% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory is 16275.26 tons, up 1.9%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 8989.6 tons, up 0.5%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills is 19.0 days, down 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Spread**: The prices of coke and coking coal futures and spot have increased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke is 1770 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. The 05 - contract price of coking coal is 1238 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, up 1.4%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.9 tons, up 0.1%. The raw coal output is 853.4 tons, down 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 tons, up 0.9%. The demand for coke is related to the production of steel mills [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 915.7 tons, up 0.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 86.1 tons, down 6.0%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 645.7 tons, up 0.3%. The inventory of coking coal has different changes in different sectors [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of the main contracts of silicon iron and silicon manganese have increased. For example, the closing price of the silicon iron main contract is 5930 yuan/ton, up 1.24%. The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions have decreased [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production costs of different regions of silicon iron and silicon manganese are different, and the production profits have decreased. For example, the production profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is - 192.0 yuan/ton, down 35.24% [7]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron is basically flat, and the production of silicon manganese has decreased slightly. The production of silicon iron products is 9.9 tons, up 0.2%, and the weekly output of silicon manganese is 19.1 tons, down 1.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese is related to the molten iron output and the production of steel products. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 tons, up 0.9% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron in 60 sample enterprises is 6.9 tons, up 7.1%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of silicon manganese is 38.3 tons, down 2.8% [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - The spot demand for steel is weak, and prices have fully priced in the weak demand. Before the holiday, focus on the impact of policies on the demand expectation of steel. In December, steel prices fluctuated with the rhythm of raw material prices and maintained a sideways trend. Steel production cuts are significant, with limited downward driving force, but the weak demand expectation for the May contract restricts the upside space for prices. The upside elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The fundamental pattern of iron ore is shifting towards a situation of both weak supply and demand. The price ceiling is constrained by high inventories, while the downside is supported by the expectation of steel mills' restocking. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition from a state of loose supply - demand to one of weak supply - demand. During the off - season, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and policy expectations. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the supply adjustment lags behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure, but the start - up rate is rising. The demand side sees an increase in iron - making water production and a rebound in steel prices at low levels. In terms of inventory, ports and steel mills are accumulating inventory, while coking plants are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. For coking coal, the supply side has a slight increase in daily production after the new year, and imports are recovering. The demand side has a stable increase in iron - making water production, and the restocking demand is warming up. The overall inventory is also slightly increasing at a medium level. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and there is support on the demand side. In the short term, focus on macro, policy expectations, and cost - side changes. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 6200. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance of manganese elements. Manganese ore provides price support, and there is also support from off - season demand. Follow - up attention should be paid to the reduction in ferromanganese production and the restocking expectations of steel mills for raw materials during the year - end winter storage. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is to operate within the range of 5800 - 6300 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3320 yuan to 3290 yuan, and the May contract of rebar fell from 3187 yuan to 3144 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 3 yuan, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 12 yuan, and the profit of North China rebar increased by 28 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average iron - making water production increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The production of the five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. Rebar production increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase, with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 2.0 to 32.8, a 6.6% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 8.9, a 6.6% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 44. to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders slightly increased, and the basis of the May contract for some powders changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5, a 2.4% increase, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.5 to 37.5, a 16.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4, a 6.0% increase, while the global shipping volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3, a 4.9% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1, a 3.0% decrease [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The May contract of coke decreased by 17 to 1748, a 1.0% decrease. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal increased by 33 to 1213, a 2.8% increase. The May contract of coking coal increased by 6 to 1196, a 0.5% increase. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 26 to 484, a 5.14% decrease [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase. The raw coal production decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a 0.3% decrease [6]. Demand - The iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory increased by 0.2 to 915.7, a 0.0% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 19.2 to 1071.7, a 1.8% increase, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.5 to 797.7, a 0.64% decrease [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese generally declined. The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 36.0 to 5632.0, a 0.6% decrease, while the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 12.0 to 5904.0, a 0.24% increase [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia remained unchanged, while the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased by 8.5 to 6236.3, a 0.1% increase. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 55.89 to - 139.7 [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 32.2 to 117.4, a 37.8% increase, the arrival volume increased by 19.1 to 669, a 46.8% increase, and the ore - removal volume increased by 8.8 to 64.5, a 15.8% increase. The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 7.9 to 438.9, a 1.8% decrease [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.1 to 29.6, a 0.34% increase, and the ferromanganese weekly production decreased by 0.3 to 19.1, a 1.4% decrease [7]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.1 to 18, a 1.9% decrease, and the ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) increased by 0.1 to 11.6, a 0.74% increase [7]. Inventory Change - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillates with a daily decline of 0.10%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals are relatively weak, and the steel price in the off - season continues to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillates weakly with a daily decline of 0.33%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, the demand for hot - rolled coil is good, which improves the supply - demand pattern and supports the price. However, the demand toughness is questionable, and the inventory level is high. The upward driving force is expected to be weak. The subsequent trend will mainly continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillates at a high level with a daily decline of 0.44%, with decreasing volume and open interest. Currently, benefiting from the spot structural contradiction and the pre - holiday restocking expectation, iron ore runs strongly at a high level. However, the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high. The fundamentals continue to weaken, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Shanghai's first publicly disclosed residential land acquisition: Lingang Holdings had a plot of land repurchased by the land reserve center for 2.625 billion yuan. The land area is about 78,700 square meters, and the above - ground floor area is 188,800 square meters [7]. - In 2026, the "national subsidy" for the household appliance industry will continue, and the industry will enter a new cycle of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. The new round of subsidy policy is expected to promote market consumption structure upgrading and the transformation of industries such as household appliances and automobiles to be green, intelligent, and high - end [8]. - South Korea extended the term of the provisional anti - dumping duty on carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils from China and Japan by 5 months, from September 23, 2025, to June 22, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Location | Specification | Price | Price Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | Shanghai | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,270 | 0 | | Rebar | Tianjin | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,170 | 0 | | Rebar | National Average | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,326 | 1 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Shanghai | 4.75mm | 3,280 | 0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tianjin | 4.75mm | 3,190 | 10 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | National Average | 4.75mm | 3,294 | - 1 | | Tangshan Steel Billet | - | Q235 | 2,940 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap | - | ≥6mm | 2,080 | - 10 | | PB Powder | Shandong Port | - | 794 | - 5 | | Tangshan Iron Concentrate | - | Wet - basis | 782 | 0 | | Ocean Freight (Australia) | - | - | 8.80 | - 0.10 | | Ocean Freight (Brazil) | - | - | 23.28 | - 0.15 | | SGX Swap (Current Month) | - | - | 107.30 | 0.15 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | - | 108.85 | 1.00 | | Coil - Rebar Price Difference | - | - | 10 | 0 | | Rebar - Scrap Price Difference | - | - | 1,190 | 10 | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | - | 3,134 | - 0.10 | 3,148 | 3,128 | 635,547 | - 415,599 | 1,560,806 | 30,014 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | - | 3,282 | - 0.33 | 3,298 | 3,278 | 311,439 | - 200,543 | 1,283,319 | 7,022 | | Iron Ore | - | 789.0 | - 0.44 | 800.0 | 786.5 | 297,023 | - 164,905 | 613,601 | - 16,080 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: It includes the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: It includes the inventory of 45 ports in China, its seasonal changes, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [21][22][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: It includes the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand are weakly stable. The supply continues to rise but remains at a relatively low level, providing support for the steel price, but the positive effect is weakening. The demand continues to be weak and will seasonally decline, dragging down the steel price. The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, but the high inventory weakens the positive effect. The demand is good but the toughness is questionable. The upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The port inventory is rising. The demand is weakening while the supply remains high. The upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, showing a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not clearly given in the provided content Core Views - The steel market has weak market sentiment, but there is cost support below, and the overall market continues the range - bound pattern. The iron ore market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a range - bound state after the price corrects the discount. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to try long positions at low prices [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined and then rebounded today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased this week, while production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and the de - stocking accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron has stabilized. The overall domestic demand in the downstream industry is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The market sentiment is still weak, and the market continues the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was strongly range - bound today. The global shipment is strong, and it is expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume is also strong, and the port inventory has continued to increase significantly. The terminal demand in the off - season is at a low level, but molten iron has stabilized at a low level this week. The steel mill inventory is at a low level, and there is a certain restocking expectation. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the short - term market trend is expected to be range - bound [2] Coke - The coke price was range - bound during the day. There is still an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, which is expected to be implemented after New Year's Day. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price was mainly range - bound during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price was strongly range - bound during the day. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. There is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory. The demand for iron and steel has decreased seasonally. The weekly production and inventory of silicomanganese have slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price was strongly range - bound during the day. There is an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee, and there is an expectation of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The demand for iron and steel has rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand has decreased, but the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7]