Core Viewpoint - The market's focus on Meituan has shifted from short-term losses to the depth of its long-term competitive moat, with Goldman Sachs highlighting its superior unit economics and resilient overseas business despite fierce competition [1][3][19] Market Transition - The debate has moved from short-term subsidy wars in the food delivery sector to assessing Meituan's defensive capabilities and long-term profitability against strong competitors like Alibaba and Douyin [4] - Investors are now more concerned about the sustainability of Meituan's competitive advantages rather than when losses will peak [3][4] Financial Performance - Meituan's adjusted operating loss for Q3 was 17.5 billion RMB, better than Goldman Sachs' expectation of 18.8 billion RMB, with losses in instant retail and new businesses narrowing more than anticipated [6] - Despite a negative initial market reaction, several positive signals were noted, including the peak of losses in instant retail and expectations for reduced losses in Q4 and early next year [6][11] Unit Economics - Meituan's unit economics remain strong, with an estimated loss of approximately 2.6 RMB per order in Q3, compared to Alibaba's 5.2 RMB per order [7][14] Overseas Business - Meituan's overseas brand, Keeta, achieved monthly profitability ahead of schedule, demonstrating strong execution capabilities [8] Scenario Analysis - **Base Case**: Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of 120 HKD, projecting a 17% upside, but has lowered long-term profit expectations for the food delivery business due to increased competition [9][10] - **Optimistic Scenario**: A target price of 152 HKD could be achieved if Meituan's competitive moat remains intact and its capital strength allows it to outlast competitors [12][13][14] - **Pessimistic Scenario**: A potential drop to 77 HKD could occur if competitors continue aggressive spending, leading to sustained pressure on Meituan's profitability [16][17][18] Competitive Landscape - The competition is intensifying, with concerns that Alibaba may continue to invest heavily in its food delivery business, potentially impacting Meituan's market share and profitability [5][16] - There are fears that Meituan's in-store, hotel, and tourism business could face similar challenges as the e-commerce sector, with new entrants eroding market share [18] Future Outlook - Despite facing unprecedented competition and short-term profitability pressures, Meituan's leadership position, strong execution, and significantly adjusted stock price suggest it still holds investment value [19]