美团同样坚决拥护，称将全力做好配合工作。"美团将以此次调查为契机，和行业内各平台一起，共同 落实市场主体责任，公平参与市场竞争，促进外卖平台服务行业创新和健康发展。" 京东外卖称，坚决支持并欢迎这一决定，高度赞同反内卷、维护市场公平竞争秩序、保障消费者与经营 者、骑手合法权益的措施。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 来源：金综科技 1月9日，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室宣布，对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况开展调查、 评估。 淘宝闪购回应称，欢迎并将积极配合此次行业市场竞争状况调查、评估工作，严格落实合规主体责任， 持续与商户、生态合作伙伴等各方携手，提供更多元化、更高质量的服务，共同维护好公平有序的市场 环境，合力推动外卖服务行业进一步繁荣发展。 ...

淘宝闪购表示："我们欢迎并将积极配合此次行业市场竞争状况调查、评估工作，严格落实合规主体责 任，持续与商户、生态合作伙伴等各方携手，提供更多元化、更高质量的服务，共同维护好公平有序的 市场环境，合力推动外卖服务行业进一步繁荣发展。" 美团也回应称，近一段时间以来，外卖市场"拼价格、拼补贴、控流量"等非理性竞争问题突出。美团多 次呼吁行业回归理性，坚决反对"内卷式"竞争。美团将以此次调查为契机，和行业内各平台一起，共同 落实市场主体责任，公平参与市场竞争，促进外卖平台服务行业创新和健康发展。 2025年初，京东、阿里巴巴高调宣布进军外卖领域，引发行业"外卖大战"。2025年5月与7月，国家市场 监督管理总局两次对三家外卖平台进行约谈，要求公平有序竞争、合法规范经营，共同营造良好市场环 境。 日前，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室(下称"国务院双反委员会办公室")依据《中华人民共和 国反垄断法》，对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况开展调查、评估。淘宝闪购、美团做出回应。受访专 家表示，此次调查将通过传导监管压力，推动平台从价格内卷转向合规经营。 外卖平台服务行业作为我国平台经济的重要组成部分，在促进消费、扩大就业 ...

进入2026年，外卖行业或将转向效率竞争。 淘宝闪购称，欢迎并将积极配合此次行业市场竞争状况调查、评估工作，严格落实合规主体责任，持续 与商户、生态合作伙伴等各方携手，提供更多元化、更高质量的服务，共同维护好公平有序的市场环 境，合力推动外卖服务行业进一步繁荣发展。 京东表示，坚决支持并欢迎这一决定，高度赞同反内卷、维护市场公平竞争秩序、保障消费者与经营 者、骑手合法权益的措施。 无论是过去几个季度补贴带来的巨额亏损，还是监管再度强调公平有序竞争，都让低价不能再成为外卖 竞争的重心。低价之后，行业还能拼什么？正在成为抛给即时零售的新问题。 外卖行业无序竞争问题再次受到关注。 据市场监管总局1月9日消息，近日国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室依据《中华人民共和国反垄 断法》，对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况开展调查、评估。 对于调查原因，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室有关负责人表示，近段时间以来，外卖平台服 务行业拼补贴、拼价格、控流量等问题突出，挤压实体经济，加剧行业"内卷式"竞争，社会各方面反映 强烈。 比拼需要进入新的赛道，进入2026年，外卖行业或将转向效率竞争。 平台迅速回应，高客单价订单或将成 ...

文 | 窄播，作者 | 庞梦圆 2025是美团被迫重塑的一年。2024年快结束的时候，美团刚收获了一份营收、利润、新业务减亏等表现 均超出市场预期的Q3财报，摩根士丹利将美团视为接下来一年最有看点的中文互联网企业。但2025年 一开年，整个互联网就风起云涌，外卖大战极大影响了美团的发展节奏，也改变了它在整个互联网坐标 系中的位置。 它不再相对独立地存在于一个大的本地生活市场，与个别巨头弱交叉，维持着某种平衡。而是站在一个 更大的消费市场，与一个更大的巨头强交叉，且巨头的进攻威胁至今没有消除。 那么相应的，我们也应该用更大的坐标系来摆放美团的位置，用新的框架和标准，来理解在新坐标系里 的美团。 如今，美团仍是最懂本地生活的企业，它最差异化的能力，仍是如大摩所说，「通过精细化运营在低毛 利业务中实现盈利的能力」。 只是在业务拓展方式上，以前可以相对轻松地。用高频的外卖、单车等业务，带动低频但高毛利的团 购、酒旅业务，从而实现整体客单价、毛利率、营收、利润的增长。 但外卖大战之后，美团外卖的流量优势被削弱，除了外卖自己的收入、利润受到影响，连带着美团的商 业模式也受到影响，乃至影响整个公司的营收结构。 如此背景下， ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale is significantly increasing its investment, potentially reaching a total of 100 billion yuan, with the primary goal of market share growth to become the absolute leader in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Competition - The competition in the food delivery market is intensifying, with both Alibaba and Meituan aiming to capture a significant share of the market, particularly in the high-ticket order segment [2]. - As of December, the order share among Meituan, Taobao Flash Sale, and JD is approximately 5:4:1, with Meituan slightly increasing its share to 55% compared to Taobao Flash Sale's 45% [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Taobao Flash Sale is projected to incur losses exceeding 20 billion yuan in Q4, with estimates ranging from 22 billion to 25 billion yuan, while Meituan's losses are expected to be between 13 billion and 14 billion yuan [3]. - The total investment in Taobao Flash Sale for the year is expected to surpass 70 billion yuan, with projections indicating that continued market share maintenance could lead to additional losses of 5 billion to 10 billion yuan per quarter [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Alibaba has adjusted its Customer Management Revenue (CMR) growth forecast for Q4 from an initial 10% to a revised estimate of 6%-7%, with some reports suggesting growth may be below 5% due to high base effects and macroeconomic slowdowns [4]. - The company is focusing on eliminating unprofitable long-term projects and exploring differentiated supply chains for its grocery and retail segments [4].

谭智佳 中央民族大学经济学院金融系讲师 撰 文 | 朱武祥 清华大学经济管理学院金融系教授 历史上，创业企业依靠一、两项核心优势，打破一企独大或者垄断格局的实例时有发生，但耗时都比较长。2025年2月份开始，中国外卖市场爆发了一场 快速打破美团一企独大格局的大战。京东携百亿补贴闯入外卖市场，阿里和美团也投入巨资应对。瑞银报告显示，2025年8月底，美团的外卖市场份额从 85%降至65%，饿了么从15%升至28%，京东外卖占7%。摩根大通11月的调研数据显示，截至2025年11月25日，美团外卖的市场份额下降到50%，领先优 势明显减弱；阿里系（饿了么+淘宝闪购）占42%，与美团的差距大幅缩小；京东外卖占8%，略有上升。同样是电商头部阵营企业，为什么不到1年，阿 里系能打破美团一企独大，而发起大战的京东市场份额增长缓慢？ 本文构建了一个"资金+技术+运营+生态"四维资源能力分析框架，解析这次互联网电商平台巨头之间的外卖大战打破美团一企独大地位的机理。 工业时代的挑战者 商业发展史上，不时发生挑战者通过创新，打破现有大企业垄断格局，甚至颠覆行业龙头企业的事例。这些挑战者大多数是创业企业，例如戴尔电脑、奈 飞、特斯 ...

值得一提的是，这一轮骑手争夺并非偶然，而是2025年外卖行业竞争升级的必然结果。此前，平台竞争多集中于价格补贴与商户资源争夺，如今已逐步延伸 到履约环节的核心人力保障。有北京美团骑手透露，近期身边至少有六七位同行被淘宝闪购的福利吸引跳槽。 不过也有资深骑手表示，成熟骑手更看重单量稳定性与平台服务保障，不会因短期高额奖励轻易流动。事实上，早在2025年7月，淘宝闪购就曾在三里屯推 出高额周补补贴政策，吸引大量美团骑手跳槽，9月补贴收缩后，骑手又大规模回流美团。 临近年底，外卖行业的竞争战火再度升级，这场始于流量与价格的博弈，如今已聚焦到对优质骑手资源的白热化争夺。美团、淘宝闪购等头部平台相继抛出 高额"转会"奖励，在北京等核心区域掀起抢人热潮。 据每日经济新闻报道，北京多个外卖站点的骑手们接连收到来自不同平台的高薪邀约。美团针对11月在饿了么、京东等平台月单量超720单的骑手，推出了 2888元的入职奖励，条件是加入美团乐跑并完成6周服务。 淘宝闪购的政策则面向2025年12月15日至21日在京东、美团、顺丰等平台跑单超过140单、加入淘宝闪购优选并连续跑4周的骑手奖励3000元，同时设置1000 元邀请奖励激 ...

最近，外卖行业展开了"抢骑手"大战。 在北京部分站点，美团针对来自饿了么、京东且月单量大于720单的活跃骑手，提供2888元的一次性转 会奖励。 紧随其后，淘宝闪购针对12月15—21日在京东、美团、顺丰等平台单量超140单、加入淘宝闪购优选并 连续接单四周的骑手，提供3000元补贴，推荐人额外获1000元奖励。 京东虽然没有跟着一起"抢人"，却在防止骑手跳槽方面下足了功夫。 短期来看，争夺骑手是应对年底订单高峰与运力波动的必要之举。 12月，最新一批京东全职骑手入住位于北京通州区的首个"京东小哥之家"，京东宣布未来5年将投入220 亿元，提供1.5万套"小哥之家"。 从长远看，这可能仍然是外卖巨头砸钱抢市场的延伸，今年的"转会"补贴力度明显比往年要大。 今年的外卖大战，三巨头不惜代价，累计投入资金超过了1000亿。如今到了年底，仍在相互较劲。外卖 的价值究竟有多大？ 千亿补贴，没有砸出新故事 天量资金投入外卖战场，巨头们得到了什么呢？ 利润没有增加。 阿里和京东三季度归属于普通股股东净利润分别同比下降52%和55%，美团则录得上市以来最大亏损， 三季度调整后净亏损达160亿元。 营销费用也没有减少。 如果非 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, and JD.com, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the e-commerce sector [4]. Core Insights - Online consumption continues to grow steadily, with a total retail sales of 45.6 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. The online retail sales reached 14.5 trillion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 5.7% to 11.8 trillion yuan, resulting in a penetration rate increase of 0.42 percentage points to 25.9% [1][12]. - The impact of the "old-for-new" policy from the previous year is starting to show, leading to a high base effect that is affecting growth rates. The express delivery business volume reached 180.74 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, but this growth is slowing compared to the previous half of the year [1][12]. - The competition in the instant retail sector has peaked, with platforms shifting their strategies towards differentiation to improve user experience (UE). The report notes that the industry is entering a new phase of competition, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than just price competition [3][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Online Consumption and Retail Performance - Online consumption remains robust, with significant growth in penetration rates. The high base effect from last year's policies is now impacting growth rates, leading to a slowdown in the growth of express delivery and online retail sales [1][12]. - Major platforms are adjusting their strategies in response to the high base effect, with JD.com experiencing a notable decrease in GMV growth rates in Q3 [1][17]. 2. AI Investment and Development - The AI sector is witnessing intensified competition, with major internet companies launching numerous updates and iterations of AI models. The focus is shifting from broad capabilities to specialized strengths, enhancing user experience and application in consumer-facing products [3][34]. - Alibaba's cloud business is accelerating, with AI-related product revenues achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters, indicating a successful transition from technology investment to value realization [3][34]. 3. Instant Retail Sector Dynamics - The instant retail sector has seen a peak in competition, with platforms initially investing heavily to capture market share. However, as the market stabilizes, strategies are shifting towards differentiation and quality improvement [3][47]. - The report highlights that platforms like Meituan and Taobao are focusing on enhancing user experience and profitability, moving away from aggressive subsidy strategies [3][47]. 4. Performance of Major E-commerce Platforms - Alibaba's core business revenue growth remains strong, while Meituan's local business is under pressure. JD.com and Pinduoduo are expected to see profit recovery in the upcoming quarters, driven by strategic investments and operational efficiencies [3][4]. - The report notes that the profitability of platforms is becoming increasingly differentiated, with expectations for Alibaba and Meituan to see profit recovery soon [4].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, and JD.com, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the upcoming quarters [3][4]. Core Insights - Online consumption remains stable, with a total retail sales of 45.6 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. The online retail sales reached 14.5 trillion yuan, growing by 9.1% year-on-year, while the physical goods online retail sales grew by 5.7% to 11.8 trillion yuan [2][14]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw an extended promotional period, averaging 3 days longer than previous years, leading to a robust growth in sales across major platforms [2][26]. - The competition in the instant retail sector has peaked, with platforms shifting strategies towards differentiation rather than direct price competition [2][49]. - Cloud business performance has been strong, with significant revenue growth from AI-related products, indicating a shift towards high-quality development driven by ecosystem investments [2][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Online Consumption and Retail Dynamics - Online consumption continues to grow steadily, with a penetration rate increasing to 25.9%. The high base effect from last year's trade-in policy is now impacting growth rates, leading to a slowdown in the growth of express delivery and online retail sales [2][14][19]. - Major platforms are increasing their investment in instant retail, with JD.com experiencing a significant decrease in GMV growth due to the high base effect from last year [19][20]. 2. AI and Product Development - The AI industry is experiencing intensified competition, with major internet companies completing 182 updates or iterations of large models in Q3 2025. This shift is moving from a broad approach to a more focused strategy on optimizing parameters and enhancing user experience [2][37][42]. - Alibaba's cloud business has shown accelerated revenue growth, with AI-related products achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters [2][37]. 3. Instant Retail and Competitive Landscape - The instant retail sector has seen peak competition, with platforms investing heavily to maintain market share. However, as the sector enters a seasonal downturn, competition is stabilizing, and platforms are focusing on differentiation strategies [2][49]. - Meituan and Taobao's flash sales have stabilized daily order volumes, while JD.com maintains a steady volume in its delivery services [49][51]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the platforms are entering a high base period, the long-term profit elasticity remains strong, with Alibaba and Meituan expected to see profit recovery in the upcoming quarters [3][4].