在美联储降息周期背景下，一个月期香港银行同业拆息(HIBOR)仍出现反弹，与有担保隔夜融资利率之 间的息差收窄。今年第四季度至今，一个月期HIBOR平均为3.19%，较第三季度高出113个基点，为银 行净利息收入提供了有力支撑。目前预计香港银行股第四季度净利息收入将超越第三季度水平，市场预 测也有望上调。 瑞银提醒，尽管香港银行股净利息收入表现有所改善，但下半年不良贷款风险亦同步上升。相应将中银 香港及东亚银行下半年的信贷成本预测上调。 瑞银发布研报称，展望2026年，对香港银行股保持谨慎看法，预期市场焦点将转向银行明年盈利前景， 其中净利息收入及信贷成本将是主要驱动因素。目前预测中银香港(02388)及东亚银行(00023)2026年净 利润增长大致持平，预计每股股息可增长2%至3%，重申对中银香港及东亚的"中性"评级，目标价则分 别由37港元及12.5港元，上调至40港元及13.5港元，以反映降息后股权成本下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a cautious outlook on Hong Kong bank stocks, projecting that the market focus will shift to banks' profit prospects for next year, with net interest income and credit costs being the main drivers [1] Group 1: Company Projections - UBS forecasts that the net profit growth for Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) and East Asia Bank (00023) will remain flat in 2026, with expected per-share dividend growth of 2% to 3% [1] - The target prices for Bank of China Hong Kong and East Asia Bank have been raised to HKD 40 and HKD 13.5, respectively, reflecting a decrease in the cost of equity following interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite the improvement in net interest income for Hong Kong banks, the risk of non-performing loans has increased in the second half of the year, leading to an upward adjustment in credit cost forecasts for Bank of China Hong Kong and East Asia Bank [1] - The average one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has risen to 3.19% in the fourth quarter, up 113 basis points from the third quarter, providing strong support for banks' net interest income [1] - It is anticipated that the net interest income for Hong Kong bank stocks in the fourth quarter will exceed that of the third quarter, with market forecasts likely to be revised upward [1]