区域信贷需求旺盛，对公业务引领信贷高增，零售业务结构分化。公司信贷投放延续"同比多增"的良好 态势，上半年信贷新增3348 亿，同比多增1744 亿，25H1 末各项贷款余额较年初高增15.98%。1）对公 端：作为规模扩张主动力，对公贷款（不含贴现）较年初增长23.30%，上半年一般对公贷款新增3071 亿。 公司立足江苏经济沃土，持续加大对实体经济的支持力度，制造业贷款较年初增长18.90%，基础设施 贷款较年初高增31%。在巩固江苏省内（占比总贷款84.06%）根据地的同时，公司在长三角（不含江 苏）、粤港澳大湾区、京津冀三大经济圈的贷款占比均较年初有所提升，区域布局持续深化。2）零售 端： 事项： 8 月22 日，江苏银行披露2025 年中报，2025 上半年实现营业收入448.64 亿元，同比增长7.78%；实现 归母净利润202.38 亿元，同比增长8.05%。2Q25末不良贷款率0.84%，较年初下降5bp，拨备覆盖率较年 初下降19.08pct 至331.02%。 评论： 营收增速稳健，负债成本优势凸显，驱动净利息收入高增，利润增长保持韧性。1）25H1 营收同比增长 7.78%，归母净利润同 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：严佳卉/吕松涛/张帅帅 1H25 营业收入符合我们预期，归母净利润好于我们预期东亚银行公布1H25 业绩。公司1H25 营业收入 同比下降2.1%，符合我们预期，主要由于HIBOR 下行压缩息差空间；公司1H25 归母普通股净利润同比 增长24.7%，表现好于我们预期，主要由于减值损失少提。 利率下行拖累净利息收入。1H25 公司净利息收入同比下降10.7%，环比2H24 下行11.5%，下滑幅度略 高于已披露财报同业。主要由于公司信贷敞口集中于中国香港与中国大陆，两地降息及在内地执行相对 保守投放策略压制了息差。向前看，HIBOR 在8 月13 日后快速上行，截至8 月21 日1MHIBOR 已恢复 至2.84%，我们认为净利息收入压力下半年或有所缓解。 发展趋势 1H25 公司中国大陆境内客户同比增长62%，南下客户同比增长54%，带动零售银行业务手续费收入同 比增长285%。 风险 中国大陆及中国香港地产相关敞口资产质量超预期下行。 信用成本自高位有所回落，是净利润超预期的主要原因，后续展望保持审慎。公司近3 年来首次出 现"信贷损失少提+不良贷款率下行+拨备覆盖率微降"组合，1 ...

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Capital One (COF) . Shares have lost about 2.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Capital One due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Capital One Financial Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.Capital ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects HIBOR to stabilize between 2% and 2.5% by the end of Q3, indicating a cautious outlook for Hong Kong banks in the short term [1] Group 1: Bank Ratings and Preferences - UBS maintains a "neutral" rating on Bank of China (Hong Kong) and East Asia Bank, while rating Hang Seng Bank as "sell" [1] - Bank of China (Hong Kong) remains the preferred choice among the covered Hong Kong bank stocks, despite a potential short-term price decline [1] Group 2: Interest Income and Market Expectations - The rebound in HIBOR is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and net interest income, but the market has already priced in HIBOR's stability for the remainder of the year [1] - UBS anticipates that the pressure on net interest income in Q3 will be greater than in Q2, as the negative impact in Q2 lasted only about a month [1] Group 3: Loan Growth and Future Projections - After a 2% growth in loan balances during May and June, the sustainability of this growth momentum remains uncertain [1] - For 2025, UBS projects net interest income declines of 7%, 9%, and 11% for Bank of China (Hong Kong), Hang Seng Bank, and East Asia Bank, respectively [1]

Group 1 - The European banking sector is experiencing a significant turnaround, moving from being seen as a "market orphan" to a favored investment, driven by rising long-term interest rates and improved economic outlook [1][3] - Major European bank stocks have reached their highest levels since the 2008 global financial crisis, with HSBC, Barclays, Santander, and UniCredit hitting multi-year peaks [1][3] - The Stoxx 600 Banks Index has risen by 34% year-to-date, outperforming U.S. counterparts and poised for its best annual performance since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the recovery to higher interest rates, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and banks' efficiency measures, which have significantly boosted net interest income [3][4] - The yield curve in Germany and the UK has created an excellent profit environment for banks, with the 30-year bond yields exceeding 2-year yields by 1.3 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively [4] Group 3 - Despite the stock price increases, many investors still view European bank stocks as undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 10, lower than U.S. peers at over 13 [5] - Many European banks have recently returned to their book value, indicating potential for further valuation convergence compared to global counterparts [5][6] Group 4 - There are concerns about the sustainability of the current rally, with some market participants questioning whether the upward momentum can continue without further increases in long-term interest rates [6] - Political resistance has hindered potential industry consolidation, limiting growth prospects for the sector [6] - Despite these challenges, European banks still hold valuation discounts compared to global peers, suggesting potential for future appreciation [6]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Group reported better-than-expected performance for Q2 2025, with adjusted operating income of $5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.8 billion, up 53.7% year-on-year, primarily driven by stronger non-interest income [1] Financial Performance - Non-interest income exceeded expectations, growing 33% year-on-year to $2.8 billion, with a contribution of $240 million from the sale of Solv India equity; even excluding this, non-interest income still showed a 22% year-on-year increase [1] - The company's financial market services revenue grew 47.2% year-on-year, driven by demand for interest rate and currency hedging amid market volatility [1] - Wealth management revenue increased by 20.1% year-on-year, primarily from affluent clients in overseas markets such as India, Hong Kong, and the Middle East [1] Guidance and Projections - The strong performance in non-interest income led the company to raise its revenue growth guidance for 2025 from "below 5%" to a lower limit of "5%-7%" [1] - Net interest income was in line with expectations, remaining flat year-on-year and decreasing 3% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the decline in HIBOR; the adjusted net interest margin was 2.03%, down 9 basis points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company maintained its guidance for operating expenses to be below $12.3 billion in 2026, with credit costs expected to gradually normalize to 30-35 basis points [2] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a new $1.3 billion share buyback, following the completion of a previous $1.5 billion buyback, maintaining a total buyback guidance of at least $8 billion for 2024-2026 [3] - The company aims to gradually increase its annual dividend per share and maintain a return on tangible equity (ROTE) close to 13% by the end of 2026 [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to the strong performance in non-interest income and better-than-expected asset quality, the company raised its 2025E/2026E net profit forecasts by 30.6% and 21.2% to $5.01 billion and $4.80 billion, respectively [3] - The company is currently trading at 0.9x/0.8x 2025E/2026E price-to-book ratios, and the target price was raised by 21.7% to HKD 158.8, corresponding to 1.0x/0.9x 2025E/2026E price-to-book ratios with an upside potential of 11.8% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 revenue growth of 3% met expectations, but net profit decreased by 35% year-on-year, primarily due to increased impairment losses in Hong Kong commercial real estate [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Trends - 1H25 net interest income fell by 7% year-on-year, with a weak loan demand leading to a decline in net interest margin to 1.99%, down from 2.29% in 1H24 and 2.20% in 2H24, mainly due to lower Hibor rates [1]. - Customer loans decreased by 5% year-on-year and 2% compared to the end of last year, indicating continued weak credit demand [1]. - Deposits grew by 9% year-on-year and 3% compared to the end of last year, with the company planning to allocate surplus funds to high-quality fixed-rate sovereign debt securities and structural hedging to mitigate future interest rate cuts' impact on net interest income [1]. Non-Interest Income - Fee income increased by 23% year-on-year, while other non-interest income rose by 46%, driven by strong growth in securities brokerage services, structured products, and investment fund sales [1]. - The increase in non-interest income was also supported by higher foreign exchange trading revenue due to market volatility and increased funding swap transactions [1]. Impairment Losses and Credit Costs - The significant increase in impairment losses, which were more than double that of the same period last year, was the main reason for the lower-than-expected net profit [2]. - The credit cost rose to 1.19%, compared to 0.35% in 1H24 and 0.77% in 2H24, primarily due to increased provisions for new non-performing loans in Hong Kong commercial real estate [2]. Dividends and Share Buybacks - Despite the decline in net profit, the company increased its dividend and maintained its share buyback program. The declared dividend for Q2 was HKD 1.3 per share, totaling HKD 2.6 per share for the first half, an 8% increase year-on-year [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025E and 2026E upwards by 2.4% and 4.3% to HKD 41 billion and HKD 42.1 billion, respectively, while lowering the 2025E net profit forecast by 13.9% to HKD 14.7 billion and raising the 2026E net profit forecast by 4.1% to HKD 17.6 billion [2]. - The current trading valuation is at 1.3x for both 2025E and 2026E P/B, with a target price maintained at HKD 109.5, reflecting a potential downside of 3.8% [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 112.25 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 5.7% year-on-year for H1 2025, with a pre-tax profit increase of 5.1% [1]. - The board has approved a second dividend of USD 0.10 per share for 2025 and plans to initiate a share buyback of up to USD 3 billion [1]. - The company is experiencing strong growth in wealth management, with non-interest income increasing by 24.8% year-on-year in H1 2025 [3]. - The company has seen total assets, loans, and deposits grow by 8.0%, 4.5%, and 7.8% year-on-year, respectively, as of June [1]. Financial Performance - The net interest margin for Q2 2025 was 1.56%, down 3 basis points from Q1 2025, primarily due to declining yields in Asia [2]. - The banking net interest income for H1 2025 decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with a guidance of USD 42 billion for the full year [2]. - Non-interest income from wealth management grew by 22.3% in H1 2025, marking six consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [3]. Asset Quality and Provisions - As of June, the non-performing loan ratio was 2.41%, with a provision coverage ratio of 43% [4]. - The company anticipates credit costs for 2025 to be around 0.40%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the Hong Kong commercial real estate sector [4]. - The company has increased its provisions, with expected credit losses rising to USD 1.1 billion for Q2 2025 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.25 for 2025, with a forecasted earnings per share (EPS) of USD 1.23 for 2025 [9]. - The company's current market capitalization is approximately HKD 1,688,949 million, with a closing price of HKD 96.95 as of July 30 [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted net income from continuing operations increased to $137.5 million or $0.73 per share, with adjusted ROA at 1.14% for the quarter [7] - Adjusted efficiency ratio improved by 90 basis points to 56.7% [8] - Organic loan growth reached $1.1 billion for the quarter, representing a 12.6% annualized growth rate [8] - Core customer deposits increased at a 4.4% annualized rate, with significant growth in non-interest bearing deposits [9] - Tangible book value rose to $22.94 per share, with CET1 regulatory capital at 12.2% [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average loans increased by over $800 million, while period-end loans grew by $1.4 billion, including $400 million from the First Chatham acquisition [10] - Non-interest revenue increased by $13 million or 15% compared to the first quarter, driven by strong performance in mortgage originations and wealth management [13] - Adjusted non-interest expense rose by $11.7 million, primarily due to the First Chatham acquisition and business growth [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong loan growth across various geographies and verticals, with Texas showing the highest growth [8] - Non-interest bearing deposits as a percentage of total deposits increased to 22.6% [11] - The net interest margin (NIM) declined by six basis points to 3.4%, but loan yields increased to 6.34% [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its presence in Georgia and Central Texas through recent acquisitions [6] - Future loan growth is expected to be between 11-15% for the full year, supported by strong pipelines and acquisitions [18] - The company aims to continue investing in its future while maintaining stable credit and strong EPS performance [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving growth through both organic means and strategic partnerships [111] - The company anticipates continued strong loan demand and revenue growth in the latter half of the year [18] - Management noted that the current operating environment is favorable, with strong pipelines and borrower activity [50][86] Other Important Information - The company completed the acquisition of Industry Bank shares and First Chatham Bank, enhancing its market position [6] - The company liquidated a significant portion of the municipal portfolio acquired from Industry Bank, reinvesting the proceeds into higher-yielding securities [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on the NII and margin guidance? - Management indicated that they expect continued improvement in net interest margin as new loans are coming in at higher rates, despite some initial negative impacts from security purchases [21][24] Question: What are the expectations for M&A activity? - Management noted an increase in M&A activity and expressed confidence in executing future transactions within their existing footprint [28][30] Question: Can you elaborate on the revenue guidance increase? - The revenue guidance increase is based on strong loan growth and a healthy pipeline, with expectations for organic revenue growth [34] Question: How is the loan growth trend expected to continue? - Management believes the strong loan growth is sustainable and reflects a real change in demand rather than a temporary rebound [83][86] Question: What is the outlook for deposit growth? - Management is optimistic about continued growth in core deposits, particularly in DDA, and sees potential for further compression in CD costs [63][66] Question: Any changes in credit quality or classified loans? - Management reported that the increase in criticized loans is within normal ranges and attributed some of it to the recent acquisition [67]

Core Insights - Community Financial System reported a non-GAAP EPS of $1.04 for Q2 2025, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.01, representing a 3.0% upside surprise [1] - Total GAAP revenue was $199.3 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of $201.3 million, but up 8.4% year-over-year [1][2] - The quarter showcased record net interest income of $124.7 million, a 14.0% increase from the previous year, and a net interest margin of 3.27%, up 0.26 percentage points year-over-year [5][6] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS for Q2 2025 was $1.04, a 9.5% increase from $0.95 in Q2 2024 [2] - GAAP revenue was $199.3 million, compared to $183.8 million in Q2 2024, reflecting an 8.4% year-over-year growth [2] - Net interest income reached $124.7 million, up from $109.4 million in the prior year [2] - Operating expenses rose to $129.1 million, an increase of 8.5% from the prior-year quarter [8] Business Segments and Strategy - Community Financial System operates through four main segments: banking, employee benefits services, insurance services, and wealth management [3][12] - The company aims to maintain a diversified revenue mix and expand its geographic presence through acquisitions [4][13] - Fee-based businesses contributed 37.4% to total revenue, down from 40.5% a year ago, with mixed results across segments [7] Asset Quality and Capital - Loan balances increased to $10.52 billion, a 4.9% rise year-over-year, driven by consumer indirect lending [6] - The ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans was 0.51% as of June 30, 2025, indicating resilient asset quality [10] - Shareholder equity increased by 12.7% to $1.88 billion, with strong regulatory capital ratios supporting growth [11] Future Outlook - The company anticipates slower growth in fee-based businesses due to market pressures, with a focus on loan growth and deposit trends [14][15] - The quarterly dividend was raised by 2.2% to $0.47 per share, marking the 33rd consecutive year of dividend growth [11][15]