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中金:海外市场驱动板块订单放量 看好头部电力设备加速突破市场
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-25 23:58
Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC highlights the active bidding dynamics in HVDC project construction in countries like Germany, the UK, and Saudi Arabia, with emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America starting project planning driven by energy transition and grid interconnection needs, indicating long-term development potential [1][2]. Group 1: Overseas HVDC Market Dynamics - The pace of HVDC construction varies overseas, with Europe expected to see around 100 GW of projects come online over the next decade [2]. - The report anticipates a new peak in contract signings due to the mature technology development in Europe and the dual drivers of grid interconnection and offshore wind energy transmission [2]. - The average annual production value of overseas HVDC converter systems is projected to exceed $10 billion from 2025 to 2030, with a CAGR of 21% [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Opportunities - High barriers to entry in high-voltage transmission result in a supply concentrated among local overseas manufacturers, with high-margin projects expected to contribute to performance elasticity [3]. - The supply of key components and cable systems is dominated by three major European brands, with capacity bookings extending to around 2030 [3]. - The tightening supply-demand dynamics present opportunities for technically capable Asian companies, with Japanese and Korean cable manufacturers already securing orders in Europe [3]. Group 3: Chinese Manufacturers' Market Position - Chinese power equipment manufacturers are leveraging "going out" strategies to cover markets in Brazil, Pakistan, and other regions, achieving performance breakthroughs in Germany and Saudi Arabia [3]. - The strong demand in the European market may prioritize international leaders' capacity for supply, while Chinese manufacturers are expected to accelerate order acquisition in emerging markets [3].