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中金:海外市场驱动板块订单放量 看好头部电力设备加速突破市场
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-25 23:58
Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC highlights the active bidding dynamics in HVDC project construction in countries like Germany, the UK, and Saudi Arabia, with emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America starting project planning driven by energy transition and grid interconnection needs, indicating long-term development potential [1][2]. Group 1: Overseas HVDC Market Dynamics - The pace of HVDC construction varies overseas, with Europe expected to see around 100 GW of projects come online over the next decade [2]. - The report anticipates a new peak in contract signings due to the mature technology development in Europe and the dual drivers of grid interconnection and offshore wind energy transmission [2]. - The average annual production value of overseas HVDC converter systems is projected to exceed $10 billion from 2025 to 2030, with a CAGR of 21% [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Opportunities - High barriers to entry in high-voltage transmission result in a supply concentrated among local overseas manufacturers, with high-margin projects expected to contribute to performance elasticity [3]. - The supply of key components and cable systems is dominated by three major European brands, with capacity bookings extending to around 2030 [3]. - The tightening supply-demand dynamics present opportunities for technically capable Asian companies, with Japanese and Korean cable manufacturers already securing orders in Europe [3]. Group 3: Chinese Manufacturers' Market Position - Chinese power equipment manufacturers are leveraging "going out" strategies to cover markets in Brazil, Pakistan, and other regions, achieving performance breakthroughs in Germany and Saudi Arabia [3]. - The strong demand in the European market may prioritize international leaders' capacity for supply, while Chinese manufacturers are expected to accelerate order acquisition in emerging markets [3].
中金 | 海外电力设备跟踪:电网互联+海风送出需求共振,高压直流输电建设加速
中金点睛· 2025-05-25 23:32
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing global demand for High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) projects, particularly in Europe, driven by the need for grid interconnection and long-distance renewable energy transmission, which is expected to catalyze performance for related manufacturers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - European countries are actively planning HVDC projects, with an estimated 100GW expected to be operational in the next decade, particularly in the UK, Germany, and Italy [3][17]. - The average annual production value of overseas HVDC converter systems is projected to exceed $10 billion from 2025 to 2030, with a CAGR of 21% [3][40]. - The supply side of the HVDC market is highly concentrated among local manufacturers, leading to high barriers to entry and extended delivery times for key components [3][42]. Group 2: Regional Insights - In the UK, there are currently 9 operational interconnectors with a total capacity of 9.8GW, and 4 additional projects are under construction, expected to be operational by 2030 [17]. - Italy's Terna plans to invest over €21 billion in its transmission network over the next decade, with significant HVDC projects planned to enhance interconnection capacity [18]. - Germany is positioned at the core of the European interconnected grid, with approximately 4.2GW of HVDC interconnectors and additional projects planned [18]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - HVDC technology is favored for large-scale, long-distance power transmission due to its higher reliability and efficiency, with energy losses 30-50% lower than High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) systems [6][7]. - The VSC-HVDC technology is increasingly adopted in Europe, providing flexibility and stability for offshore wind power integration [6][7]. Group 4: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are beginning to explore HVDC projects, driven by energy transition needs and grid interconnection demands [35][36]. - The Middle East and North Africa region is witnessing significant planning for HVDC projects to address mismatches between energy resources and load centers [35][36]. Group 5: Key Players - The HVDC converter market is dominated by three major players: Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy, and GE Vernova, which collectively hold over 90% of the market share [42][44]. - European cable manufacturers, including Prysmian, Nexans, and NKT, lead the HVDC cable market, while Asian companies are gradually entering the market [46].