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新澳股份(603889):羊毛价格反弹,盈利能力提升可期
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-10-29 13:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [4][10]. Core Views - The company's cashmere business is experiencing robust growth, and its production capacity is gradually being released, which is expected to enhance delivery capabilities [4]. - The report highlights a significant rebound in wool prices, with the Australian wool market index increasing by nearly 30% since July, suggesting a potential improvement in profitability starting from Q4 2025 [7]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in fine wool spinning, with steady growth in its wool business and a promising second growth curve in its cashmere segment [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.894 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 377 million yuan, up 1.98% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit of 107 million yuan, up 2.76% year-on-year [7]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters improved by 0.86 percentage points to 20.24%, while the net profit margin increased by 0.32 percentage points to 10.43% [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 4.841 billion yuan for 2024, 4.982 billion yuan for 2025, and 5.431 billion yuan for 2026, with growth rates of 9% and 3% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 428 million yuan in 2024, 451 million yuan in 2025, and 504 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 6% and 5% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [4]. Capacity Expansion and Delivery Improvement - The company is gradually releasing new production capacity, including a 50,000 spindle high-end ecological yarn project in Vietnam and a 20,000 spindle high-quality wool yarn project in Yinchuan, which are expected to enhance order acquisition and customer expansion [7].