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比音勒芬(002832):上半年收入增长9%,线上渠道增长领先
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-29 09:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][32][34] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue growth of 9% in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in online channel sales, which grew by 71.8% [1][2] - Despite the revenue growth, net profit faced pressure, declining by 13.6% year-on-year to 410 million yuan due to a decrease in gross margin and rising expenses [1][3] - The company is strategically positioned in the high-end sports fashion segment, with potential for future growth as brand influence increases [3][32] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue reached 2.1 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, while gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 75.9% [1] - The net profit margin fell by 5.1 percentage points to 19.7%, influenced by increased marketing expenses and changes in channel structure [1][2] - For Q2 2025, revenue surged by 22.3% to 820 million yuan, but net profit dropped by 29.3% to 80 million yuan, with gross margin at 76.7% [2] Channel Performance - Revenue growth was driven primarily by online channels, while franchise channels faced challenges due to high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - The company opened a net of 48 new stores in the first half of 2025, increasing the total to 672 direct stores and 656 franchise stores [2] Profitability Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 730 million, 800 million, and 870 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.9% in 2025 [3][25] - The target price has been revised down to 18.0-19.3 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14-15x for 2025 [3][32] Financial Metrics - Projected revenue for 2025 is 4.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.3% [33] - The expected gross margin for 2025 is 75.1%, down from previous estimates due to industry sales pressures [25][26] - The company's net asset return (ROE) is projected to decline to 13.0% by 2025 [33]