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极米科技(688696):2025Q2预告点评:业绩大幅改善
Huaan Securities· 2025-07-31 07:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report indicates significant improvement in performance, with a forecasted revenue of 8.2 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of 0.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 354.6% [10] - The company is expected to benefit from improved domestic market share profitability, sustained high growth in overseas markets, and contributions from automotive and commercial sectors [8] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 39.8 billion yuan, 46.9 billion yuan, and 53.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.0%, 17.6%, and 13.7% [8] Revenue Analysis - The company anticipates a decline in domestic sales for Q2 due to weak domestic demand, while foreign sales are expected to continue double-digit growth [10] - The domestic gross margin is projected to improve to 30%, driven by product mix, chip price reductions, and optimization of solutions [7] Profit Analysis - The net profit margin for Q2 is expected to be 3.2%, with core drivers being the domestic gross margin improvements and stable foreign sales at over 40% [7] - The company forecasts net profits of 3.0 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 5.5 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 150%, 36%, and 35% respectively [8] Financial Projections - Key financial metrics for 2025E include revenue of 39.82 billion yuan, net profit of 301 million yuan, and a P/E ratio of 24.13 [11] - The company expects to achieve a gross margin of 31.7% in 2025, increasing to 34.2% by 2027 [15]