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贵金属期现日报-20260331
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the US signaling peace talks with Iran, the conditions for a cease - fire agreement may be harsh. There may be more intense conflicts, leading to a liquidity shock and a potential fall in gold prices. However, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market is expected to be gradually digested. If gold ETF funds stop flowing out, it will be conducive to market stabilization and a technical recovery. When the short - term intraday price drops below $4400, investors can try to buy call options to seize the opportunity of a phased rebound [1] - As gold stops falling, silver may bottom out around $60 - $65, with its technical aspects gradually recovering. The upper resistance is at $85. It is recommended to hold the out - of - the - money call options on Shanghai silver above 19000 [1] - Under the dual disturbances of macro - finance and industrial attributes, the prices of platinum and palladium are affected by gold and silver and show an oscillatory pattern. Platinum fluctuates in the range of $1850 - $2000, and palladium fluctuates in the range of $1450 - $1600. The fundamentals of palladium are relatively weaker, and investors can try to go long on platinum at low prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2606 contract closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram on March 31, 2026, up 16.22 yuan or 1.62% from March 30 [1] - AG2606 contract closed at 17707 yuan/ten grams on March 31, 2026, up 218 yuan or 1.25% from March 30 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 497.50 yuan/gram on March 31, 2026, up 4.45 yuan or 0.90% from March 30 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 357.30 yuan/gram on March 31, 2026, down 0.90 yuan or - 0.25% from March 30 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at $4540.40 on March 31, 2026, up $50.70 or 1.13% from March 30 [1] - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at $70.18 on March 31, 2026, up $0.41 or 0.59% from March 30 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at $1892.90 on March 31, 2026, up $26.50 or 1.42% from March 30 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at $1413.50 on March 31, 2026, up $29.00 or 2.09% from March 30 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at $4513.52, up $20.16 or 0.45% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at $70.04, up $0.32 or 0.45% from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at $1920.00, up $71.00 or 3.84% from the previous value [1] - Palladium was at $1430.00, up $43.00 or 3.10% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1008.96 yuan/gram, up 16.51 yuan or 1.66% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 17560 yuan/kilogram, up 93 yuan or 0.53% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's 9995 gold was at 490 yuan/gram, up 13 yuan or 2.64% from the previous value [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 5.92, up 0.29 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 147, down 125 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was 3.66, up 0.74 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.20% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.05, up 0.02 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 59.70% [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 64.70, up 0.35 or 0.54% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was 57.32, up 0.21 or 0.37% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.34, down 0.01 or - 0.66% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was 1.39, up 0.02 or 1.16% from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, down 0.09 percentage points or - 2.0% from the previous value [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.82%, down 0.06 percentage points or - 1.5% from the previous value [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.04%, down 0.09 percentage points or - 4.2% from the previous value [1] - The US dollar index was 100.51, up 0.33 or 0.33% from the previous value [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9164, down 0.0034 or - 0.05% from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 106644 kilograms, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 374427 kilograms, up 2628 kilograms or 0.71% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 31536505 ounces, down 177023 ounces or - 0.56% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 327589421 ounces, down 707943 ounces or - 0.22% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16618535 ounces, up 300 ounces or 0.00% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 76024857 ounces, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The SPRD gold ETF position was 1046 tons, down 3.43 tons or - 0.33% from the previous value [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15288 tons, down 121.10 tons or - 0.79% from the previous value [1]