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贵金属期现日报-20260331
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the US signaling peace talks with Iran, the conditions for a cease - fire agreement may be harsh. There may be more intense conflicts, leading to a liquidity shock and a potential fall in gold prices. However, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market is expected to be gradually digested. If gold ETF funds stop flowing out, it will be conducive to market stabilization and a technical recovery. When the short - term intraday price drops below $4400, investors can try to buy call options to seize the opportunity of a phased rebound [1] - As gold stops falling, silver may bottom out around $60 - $65, with its technical aspects gradually recovering. The upper resistance is at $85. It is recommended to hold the out - of - the - money call options on Shanghai silver above 19000 [1] - Under the dual disturbances of macro - finance and industrial attributes, the prices of platinum and palladium are affected by gold and silver and show an oscillatory pattern. Platinum fluctuates in the range of $1850 - $2000, and palladium fluctuates in the range of $1450 - $1600. The fundamentals of palladium are relatively weaker, and investors can try to go long on platinum at low prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2606 contract closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram on March 31, 2026, up 16.22 yuan or 1.62% from March 30 [1] - AG2606 contract closed at 17707 yuan/ten grams on March 31, 2026, up 218 yuan or 1.25% from March 30 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 497.50 yuan/gram on March 31, 2026, up 4.45 yuan or 0.90% from March 30 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 357.30 yuan/gram on March 31, 2026, down 0.90 yuan or - 0.25% from March 30 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at $4540.40 on March 31, 2026, up $50.70 or 1.13% from March 30 [1] - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at $70.18 on March 31, 2026, up $0.41 or 0.59% from March 30 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at $1892.90 on March 31, 2026, up $26.50 or 1.42% from March 30 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at $1413.50 on March 31, 2026, up $29.00 or 2.09% from March 30 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at $4513.52, up $20.16 or 0.45% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at $70.04, up $0.32 or 0.45% from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at $1920.00, up $71.00 or 3.84% from the previous value [1] - Palladium was at $1430.00, up $43.00 or 3.10% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1008.96 yuan/gram, up 16.51 yuan or 1.66% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 17560 yuan/kilogram, up 93 yuan or 0.53% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's 9995 gold was at 490 yuan/gram, up 13 yuan or 2.64% from the previous value [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 5.92, up 0.29 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 147, down 125 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was 3.66, up 0.74 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.20% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.05, up 0.02 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 59.70% [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 64.70, up 0.35 or 0.54% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was 57.32, up 0.21 or 0.37% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.34, down 0.01 or - 0.66% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was 1.39, up 0.02 or 1.16% from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, down 0.09 percentage points or - 2.0% from the previous value [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.82%, down 0.06 percentage points or - 1.5% from the previous value [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.04%, down 0.09 percentage points or - 4.2% from the previous value [1] - The US dollar index was 100.51, up 0.33 or 0.33% from the previous value [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9164, down 0.0034 or - 0.05% from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 106644 kilograms, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 374427 kilograms, up 2628 kilograms or 0.71% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 31536505 ounces, down 177023 ounces or - 0.56% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 327589421 ounces, down 707943 ounces or - 0.22% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16618535 ounces, up 300 ounces or 0.00% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 76024857 ounces, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The SPRD gold ETF position was 1046 tons, down 3.43 tons or - 0.33% from the previous value [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15288 tons, down 121.10 tons or - 0.79% from the previous value [1]
贵金属期现日报-20260122
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-22 02:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The market is affected by macro - geopolitical events, repeatedly supporting the gold price to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Gold can be bought on dips after a callback when it is above the 20 - day moving average. At the same time, sell out - of - the - money call options to lock in the retracement risk [1] - For silver, the short - term suspension of the 232 investigation tariff by the US and the position - limit measures of the exchange have eased the capital sentiment. The price may enter a high - level oscillation. Be cautious about unilateral participation. Sell out - of - the - money call options to earn volatility - reduction returns [1] - The spot supply of crude gold in London is tightening. It can be bought on dips when it retraces to the 20 - day moving average. The price generally fluctuates in the range of 587 - 640 yuan, and an option straddle strategy can be used. Palladium performs relatively weaker than platinum, and out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Price - AU2604 contract closed at 1092.30 yuan/gram on January 21, up 32.14 yuan or 3.03% from January 20 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 23131 (unit not clear) on January 21, up 0.30% from January 20; another silver - related data closed at 628.50 yuan/kg, up 9.15 yuan or 1.48% [1] - PT2606 contract data not provided; PD2606 contract closed at 485.80, down 4.20 or - 0.86% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Price - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4836.20 on January 21, up 67.10 or 1.41% from January 20 [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 92.96, down 1.51 or - 1.59% [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2478.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.20 or - 0.05% [1] - NYMEX lithium - gold main contract (assumed to be misspelled, might be palladium - gold) closed at 1874.50, down 34.00 or - 1.78% [1] Spot Price - London gold was at 4832.97, up 1.47% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 93.10, down 1.43 or - 1.51% [1] - Spot platinum was at 2481.58 dollars/ounce, up 15.48 or 0.63% [1] - Another "spot aluminum - gold" (might be misspelled) was at 1845.16, down 29.18 or - 1.56% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1085.93 yuan/gram, up 29.94 yuan or 2.84% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 23228 yuan/ten - gram, up 79 or 0.34% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 628 yuan/5 - gram, up 15 or 2.45% [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 6.37, down 2.20 from the previous value, at the 46.10% quantile of the past year [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was 97, up 10 from the previous value, at the 60.60% quantile [1] - London gold - COMEX gold basis was - 2.06, up 2.92 from the previous value, at the 92.90% quantile [1] - London silver - COMEX silver basis was 0.19, unchanged from the previous value, at the 90.00% quantile [1] Price Ratio - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 52.03, up 1.54 or 3.05% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver ratio was 47.22, up 1.25 or 2.72% [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.32, up 0.02 or 1.76% [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium ratio was 1.29, up 0.03 or 2.35% [1] Interest Rate and Exchange Rate - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26%, down 0.04% or - 0.9% from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, down 0.05% or - 2.5% [1] - US dollar index was 98.77, up 0.23 or 0.23% [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9601, up 0.0043 or 0.06% [1] Inventory and Position - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was unchanged at 066666 (format might be wrong), with a 0.00% change [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 600779 kg, down 17803 kg or - 2.88% [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 36142880, up 6979 or 0.02% [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 422313658, down 4162840 or - 0.98% [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18864397, down 418419 or - 2.17% [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 119542538, down 3448830 or - 2.80% [1] - SPRD gold ETF position was 1078, down 4.00 or - 0.37% [1] - SLV silver ETF position was 18166, down 56.38 or - 0.35% [1]
贵金属期现日报-20260116
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:31
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may be more affected by the impact of US economic data on the Fed's policy expectations and geopolitical situation disturbances. In the short - term, the influence of news is weakening, the market maintains a relatively strong shock but the volatility declines. For gold, those holding long positions above the 20 - day moving average can continue to hold, and selling out - of - the - money put options can earn time value [1]. - For silver, the cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates by the country after April 1 may bring the "rush to export" effect again, advancing the demand for silver powder and intensifying the supply - structural shortage. Short - term fluctuations are still volatile, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions, while long positions should lock in profits in time when the price is high [1]. - For platinum and palladium, due to their strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and the fact that their prices are still undervalued compared to gold, capital promotes value reshaping. It is expected to continue to rise in the medium - and long - term. In the short - term, market speculative sentiment weakens, the volatility narrows, but it still follows the relatively strong shock of gold. It is recommended to buy platinum on dips with light positions around the 20 - day moving average [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1035.20 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.52% from the previous day [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 22665 yuan/kilogram on January 15, down 0.43% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram on January 15, down 2.21% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 478.60 yuan/gram on January 15, down 5.25% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4620.50 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.29% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 92.21 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 1.05% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2415.80 dollars/ounce on January 15, up 0.55% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1865.50 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.90% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4615.52 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 92.40 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.65% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2408.00 dollars/ounce on January 15, up 0.46% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1812.00 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 1.79% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1033.92 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 22684 yuan/kilogram on January 15, down 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 597 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.34% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.28, up 1.73 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 19, up 17 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 4.98, up 2.82 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 87.80% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.19, up 0.37 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.00% [1]. Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 50.11 on January 15, up 0.77% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 45.67 on January 15, down 0.09% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.29 on January 15, up 1.46% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium was 1.27 on January 15, up 3.21% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.17% on January 15, up 0.5% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% on January 15, up 1.4% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.88% on January 15, up 1.1% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.34 on January 15, up 0.27% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9631 on January 15, down 0.12% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 100152 kilograms on January 15, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 638399 kilograms on January 15, up 1.54% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36132901 ounces on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 433382110 ounces on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18838070 ounces on January 15, down 2.31% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 122741960 ounces on January 15, down 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1075 tons on January 15, up 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16062 tons on January 15, down 1.11% from the previous day [1].