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贵金属期现日报-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:59
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As the impact of the geopolitical situation on the market is gradually digested, if the gold ETF holdings stop falling and rebound, indicating improved confidence of allocation funds, one can try to go long on dips in the range of $4400 - $4500, and pay attention to the stage resistance of the 20 - day moving average [1] - In the short term, with the easing of the US - Iran war, silver is expected to stabilize above $70 along with gold. One can seize the opportunity for a band - up move with boosted market sentiment, and the upper resistance is at $85 [1] - Platinum's price is rising in the central range of $1850 - $2015, and palladium is oscillating above $1400. Since palladium has a relatively weaker fundamental, the long position on the platinum - palladium ratio can continue to be held [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2606 contract closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram on March 31, up 0.51% (5.22 yuan) from March 30 [1] - AG2606 contract closed at 18126 yuan/kilogram on March 31, up 2.37% (419 yuan) from March 30 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 493.10 yuan/gram on March 31, down 0.88% (4.40 yuan) from March 30 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 361.40 yuan on March 31, up 1.15% (4.10 yuan) from March 30 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4699.60 on March 31, up 3.51% (159.20) from March 30 [1] - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at 75.35 on March 31, up 7.36% (5.16) from March 30 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at 1962.30 dollars/ounce on March 31, up 3.67% (69.40) from March 30 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at 1488.50 on March 31, up 5.31% (75.00) from March 30 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4669.13 on March 31, up 3.45% (155.61) from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 75.11 on March 31, up 7.24% (5.07) from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 1950.00 dollars/ounce on March 31, up 3.34% (63.00) from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 1448.00 on March 31, up 1.26% (18.00) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1015.68 yuan/gram on March 31, up 0.67% (6.72 yuan) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 18031 yuan/kilogram on March 31, up 2.68% (471 yuan) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 495 yuan/gram on March 31, up 1.10% (5 yuan) from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 4.42, up 1.50 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 had a change, and the 1 - year historical quantile was 60.60% [1] - Another basis was 3.66, up 0.74 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.20% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold had a change [1] - London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.05, up 0.02 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 59.70% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was 62.37 on March 31, down 3.59% (2.32) from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver was 56.28 on March 31, down 1.81% (1.04) from the previous value [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.32 on March 31, down 1.56% (0.02) from the previous value [1] - GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.36 on March 31, down 2.01% (0.03) from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.30 on March 31, down 1.1% (0.05) from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.79 on March 31, down 0.8% (0.03) from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.00 on March 31, down 2.0% (0.04) from the previous value [1] - US dollar index was 09.88 on March 31, down 0.62% (0.62) from the previous value [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8879 on March 31, down 0.41% (0.0285) from the previous value [1] Inventories and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 106644 kilograms on March 31, unchanged from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory was 368667 on March 31, down 1.54% (5760) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 31533901 on March 31, down 0.01% (2604) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 327820669 on March 31, up 0.07% (231248) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts was 16563243 on March 31, down 0.33% (55291) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts was 76429739 on March 31, up 0.53% (404881) from the previous value [1] - SPRD gold ETF holdings was 1047 on March 31, up 0.11% (1.15) from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF holdings was 15274 on March 31, down 0.09% (14.08) from the previous value [1]
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260331
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 10:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak rebound. The main contract of Shanghai Gold rose 1.46%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver rose 3.41%, the main contract of platinum rose 0.16%, and the main contract of palladium rose 0.89% [1]. - In the short - term, regarding the risk of safe - haven, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain deadlocked; the US employment is strong, inflationary pressure persists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump issued a new warning; Iran said the US peace proposal was "unrealistic". The Houthi armed forces "joined the war", more US troops arrived in the Middle East, the risk of the Iran war expanding increased, and the Middle East crisis may become long - term [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, Powell said that the Fed could "wait and see" how the war affects inflation and there was no need to take action for the time being. The US import prices in February had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged this month, stating that the Iran war made the policy outlook highly uncertain, expecting inflation to rise, the unemployment rate to remain stable, and to cut interest rates once this year. The probability of interest rate hikes reversed, and the bet on interest rate cuts was postponed to 2027. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields were under pressure at high levels [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $4540.40 per ounce, up 0.42% from the previous day and 2.95% from the previous week. The London gold price was $4529.15 per ounce, up 0.56% from the previous day and 1.41% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1020.10 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day and 4.11% from the previous week. The closing price of the Gold T + D was 1015.68 yuan per gram, up 0.67% from the previous day and 3.85% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of Comex gold was 403,925 lots, down 2.42% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 180,433 lots, down 0.29% from the previous day but up 12.83% from the previous week. The position of Gold TD was 45,964 lots, down 2.40% from the previous day and 2.91% from the previous week. The LBMA inventory was 9,210 tons, up 0.56% from the previous week. The Comex gold inventory was 1,000 tons, down 1.58% from the previous week. The Shanghai Gold inventory was 107 tons, up 1.82% from the previous day and 1.35% from the previous week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 long - position holders in the Shanghai Gold futures of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are led by Guotai Junan, and the top 10 short - position holders are led by Yunchang Futures [3]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $70.18 per ounce, up 0.59% from the previous day and 1.24% from the previous week. The London silver price was $70.75 per ounce, up 4.36% from the previous day and 5.24% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18,126 yuan per kilogram, up 2.37% from the previous day and 6.09% from the previous week. The closing price of the Silver T + D was 18,031 yuan per kilogram, up 2.68% from the previous day and 5.04% from the previous week [4]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of Comex silver was 113,164 lots, down 1.39% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,615,825 lots, up 3.07% from the previous day and 13.90% from the previous week. The position of Silver TD was 2,818,488 lots, down 0.76% from the previous day and 3.21% from the previous week. The LBMA inventory was 27,065 tons, down 2.39% from the previous week. The Comex silver inventory was 10,188 tons, down 1.36% from the previous week. The Shanghai Silver inventory was 369 tons, up 0.75% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 37,916 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 long - position holders in the Shanghai Silver futures of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are led by Guotou Futures, and the top 10 short - position holders are led by Chezheng Futures [5]. 3.3 Platinum - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2,113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day but down 3.47% from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2,118.00 per ounce, up 1.97% from the previous day but down 0.66% from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% from the previous day but down 1.75% from the previous week. The closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 548.93 yuan per gram, up 3.84% from the previous day but down 1.82% from the previous week [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 34,868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day and 5.91% from the previous week. The total NYMEX platinum inventory was 19 tons, unchanged from the previous week [7]. 3.4 Palladium - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1,620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day but down 5.37% from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1,601.00 per ounce, down 3.04% from the previous day and 2.97% from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% from the previous day but down 3.73% from the previous week [8]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 14,847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day and 0.53% from the previous week. The total NYMEX palladium inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% from the previous day and 19.79% from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, the discount rate was 3.75%, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) was 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets were $6,708.36 billion. M2 increased by 4.88% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield was 2.64%, the US dollar index was 100.51, and the US Treasury yield spreads and interest rate differentials between the US and other countries showed certain changes [9]. - **US Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.40%, the month - on - month CPI was 0.50%, the year - on - year core CPI was 2.50%, the month - on - month core CPI was 0.40%, the year - on - year PCE price index was 2.83%, the year - on - year core PCE price index was 3.06%, the one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.80%, and the five - year inflation expectation was 3.20% [9]. - **US Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 2.10%, the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was 0.70%, the unemployment rate was 4.40%, the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was - 92,000, the labor participation rate was 61.90%, the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.80%, and other labor market and economic indicators showed corresponding changes [9]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index was 38.00, existing home sales were 4.09 million units, new home sales were 480,000 units, and new home starts were 1.043 million units [9]. - **US Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales increased by 2.08% year - on - year and 0.03% month - on - month, personal consumption expenditure increased by 5.25% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month, the personal savings rate was 4.50%, the industrial production index increased by 1.44% year - on - year and 0.15% month - on - month, and other consumption and industrial indicators showed corresponding changes [11]. - **US Trade**: Exports increased by 9.68% year - on - year but decreased by 17.23% month - on - month, imports decreased by 26.33% year - on - year but increased by 2.30% month - on - month, and the trade deficit was - $54.5 billion [11]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index was 52.40, the ISM services PMI index was 56.10, the Markit manufacturing PMI index was 52.40, the Markit services PMI index was 51.10, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 53.30, the small business optimism index was 98.80, and the US investor confidence index was 7.20 [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves were 2,308.50 tons, the US's were 8,133.46 tons, and the world's total was 36,458.24 tons [11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar accounted for 56.32% of foreign exchange reserves, the euro accounted for 21.13%, and the RMB accounted for 2.12% [11]. - **Gold to Foreign Exchange Reserves Ratio**: China's ratio was 8.34%, and the US's was 81.98% [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 181.40, the VIX index was 30.61, the CRB commodity index was 371.29, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9215 [11]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from April 29, 2026, to December 8, 2027, is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate decisions [13].
瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 10:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Trump signaled a缓和 of the US - Iran situation, leading to a short - term pull - up and then a sharp decline in precious metals. Powell said the Fed would "ignore" the short - term energy shock, reducing bets on interest rate hikes this year. Fed's Milan released dovish signals, and the weakening of US short - term Treasury yields supported gold and silver prices. Geopolitical factors restricted the rebound of precious metals. In the future, if the geopolitical conflict persists and supports high oil prices, the precious metals' rebound space may be suppressed. However, if the US economic slowdown is verified and the upcoming non - farm data is weak while CPI inflation rises significantly, gold prices may benefit from stagflation risks. In the long - term, central bank gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar credit still exist, so the strategy is to be short - term cautious and long - term bullish [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1020.10 yuan/gram, up 5.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18126 yuan/kilogram, up 419 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 520 hands to 180,433 hands, and those of Shanghai Silver decreased by 8724 hands to 17,199 hands. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 58160 to 335,355, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 178429 to 881,875. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 106644 kilograms, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 5760 to 368,667 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1018.90 yuan, up 10.15 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 18,308 yuan, up 1003 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.20 yuan/gram, up 4.93 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 182 yuan/gram, up 584 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.43 tons to 1046.13 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 121.10 tons to 15,288.36 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC increased by 8458 to 168327, and those of silver increased by 2792 to 24,673. The quarterly total supply of gold decreased by 0.19 tons to 1302.80 tons, and the annual total supply of silver increased by 482 tons to 32,056 tons. The quarterly total demand for gold increased by 79.57 tons to 1345.32 tons, and the annual total demand for silver decreased by 491 tons to 35,716 tons [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 100.51, up 0.32; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.04, down 0.09. The VIX volatility index was 30.61, down 0.44; the CBOE gold volatility index was 42.71, down 2.80. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.40, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 64.02, down 2.42 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said he was willing to end the military action against Iran, and Iran agreed to most of the "15 - point cease - fire plan". Powell said the Fed would maintain the interest rate and "ignore" the short - term energy shock. Williams thought the current interest rate was in a favorable position, while Milan called for a 100 - basis - point interest rate cut this year. The Bank of Japan's governor said that if the interest rate hike was delayed, long - term interest rates might rise rapidly, and short - term consumer prices might be more volatile [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index; April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment; April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI; April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28; April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance; April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls [2]
贵金属期现日报-20260331
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the US signaling peace talks with Iran, the conditions for a cease - fire agreement may be harsh. There may be more intense conflicts, leading to a liquidity shock and a potential fall in gold prices. However, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market is expected to be gradually digested. If gold ETF funds stop flowing out, it will be conducive to market stabilization and a technical recovery. When the short - term intraday price drops below $4400, investors can try to buy call options to seize the opportunity of a phased rebound [1] - As gold stops falling, silver may bottom out around $60 - $65, with its technical aspects gradually recovering. The upper resistance is at $85. It is recommended to hold the out - of - the - money call options on Shanghai silver above 19000 [1] - Under the dual disturbances of macro - finance and industrial attributes, the prices of platinum and palladium are affected by gold and silver and show an oscillatory pattern. Platinum fluctuates in the range of $1850 - $2000, and palladium fluctuates in the range of $1450 - $1600. The fundamentals of palladium are relatively weaker, and investors can try to go long on platinum at low prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2606 contract closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram on March 31, 2026, up 16.22 yuan or 1.62% from March 30 [1] - AG2606 contract closed at 17707 yuan/ten grams on March 31, 2026, up 218 yuan or 1.25% from March 30 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 497.50 yuan/gram on March 31, 2026, up 4.45 yuan or 0.90% from March 30 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 357.30 yuan/gram on March 31, 2026, down 0.90 yuan or - 0.25% from March 30 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at $4540.40 on March 31, 2026, up $50.70 or 1.13% from March 30 [1] - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at $70.18 on March 31, 2026, up $0.41 or 0.59% from March 30 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at $1892.90 on March 31, 2026, up $26.50 or 1.42% from March 30 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at $1413.50 on March 31, 2026, up $29.00 or 2.09% from March 30 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at $4513.52, up $20.16 or 0.45% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at $70.04, up $0.32 or 0.45% from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at $1920.00, up $71.00 or 3.84% from the previous value [1] - Palladium was at $1430.00, up $43.00 or 3.10% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1008.96 yuan/gram, up 16.51 yuan or 1.66% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 17560 yuan/kilogram, up 93 yuan or 0.53% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's 9995 gold was at 490 yuan/gram, up 13 yuan or 2.64% from the previous value [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 5.92, up 0.29 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 147, down 125 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was 3.66, up 0.74 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.20% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.05, up 0.02 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 59.70% [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 64.70, up 0.35 or 0.54% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was 57.32, up 0.21 or 0.37% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.34, down 0.01 or - 0.66% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was 1.39, up 0.02 or 1.16% from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, down 0.09 percentage points or - 2.0% from the previous value [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.82%, down 0.06 percentage points or - 1.5% from the previous value [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.04%, down 0.09 percentage points or - 4.2% from the previous value [1] - The US dollar index was 100.51, up 0.33 or 0.33% from the previous value [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9164, down 0.0034 or - 0.05% from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 106644 kilograms, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 374427 kilograms, up 2628 kilograms or 0.71% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 31536505 ounces, down 177023 ounces or - 0.56% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 327589421 ounces, down 707943 ounces or - 0.22% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16618535 ounces, up 300 ounces or 0.00% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 76024857 ounces, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The SPRD gold ETF position was 1046 tons, down 3.43 tons or - 0.33% from the previous value [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15288 tons, down 121.10 tons or - 0.79% from the previous value [1]
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260330
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 11:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile rebound. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.28%, Shanghai Silver up 2.80%, platinum up 2.66%, and palladium up 0.61%. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, volatile at a low level in the medium - term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1] - In the short - term, there are risks of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level. The risk of the Iran war expanding is rising, and the Middle East crisis may become long - term. The US import prices in February had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed will maintain the interest rate this month, indicating high uncertainty in the policy outlook due to the Iran war. The probability of an interest - rate hike within the year has increased, and the bet on interest - rate cuts has been postponed to 2027 [1] - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of a global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2] - **Price Data**: Comex gold active contract closed at $4521.30 per ounce, up 3.30% from the previous day; London gold was at $4504.15 per ounce, up 1.07%. Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 1014.88 yuan per gram, up 1.62% [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions were 403,925 lots, down 2.42% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions were 180,953 lots, up 7.02% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 9,210 tons, up 0.56% [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4] - **Price Data**: Comex silver active contract closed at $69.77 per ounce, up 2.41% from the previous day; London silver was at $67.80 per ounce, up 0.75%. Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17,707 yuan per kilogram, up 1.25% [4] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions were 113,164 lots, down 1.39% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions were 3,508,275 lots, up 3.63% from the previous day. The total visible inventory was 37,948 tons, down 0.33% [4] Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - losses/take - profits are necessary [6] - **Price Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day; London platinum was at $2118 per ounce, up 1.97%. Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% [7] - **Position and Inventory**: NYMEX platinum active contract positions were 34,868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day. NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons, unchanged [7] Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - losses/take - profits are required [8] - **Price Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day; London palladium was at $1601 per ounce, down 3.04%. Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% [8] - **Position and Inventory**: NYMEX palladium active contract positions were 14,847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day. NYMEX palladium total inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% [8] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%. The Fed's total assets are 6,708.36 billion US dollars. The M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.88% [9] - **Inflation in the US**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.83%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.06% [9] - **US Economic Growth**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 2.10%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is 0.70%. The unemployment rate is 4.40% [9] - **US Labor Market**: The monthly change in non - farm employment is - 92,000, the labor participation rate is 61.90%, and the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80% [9] - **US Real Estate Market**: Existing home sales are 4.09 million units, new home sales are 480,000 units, and new home starts are 1.043 million units [9] - **US Consumption**: Retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 2.08%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate is 5.25%, and the personal savings as a proportion of disposable income is 4.50% [11] - **US Industry**: The industrial production index year - on - year growth rate is 1.44%, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.29% [11] - **US Trade**: Exports year - on - year growth rate is 9.68%, imports year - on - year growth rate is - 26.33%, and the trade balance is - 54.5 billion US dollars [11] - **US Economic Surveys**: ISM manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, ISM services PMI index is 56.10, Markit manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, and Markit services PMI index is 51.10 [11] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves are 2,308.50 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,458.24 tons [11] - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves Proportion**: The US dollar accounts for 56.32%, the euro accounts for 21.13%, and the RMB accounts for 2.12% [11] - **Geopolitical and Market Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 335.15, the VIX index is 31.05, the CRB commodity index is 368.91, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9184 [11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the federal funds rate remaining in the 350 - 375 range is relatively high in the near - term, but the probability of a rate cut gradually increases over time [13]
贵金属期现日报-20260330
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 09:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, although the US has signaled peace talks with Iran, the conditions for a cease - fire agreement may be harsh. There may be more intense conflicts leading to a liquidity shock and a decline in gold prices. However, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market is expected to be gradually digested. The halt of outflows from gold ETF funds is beneficial for price stability. The market will enter a technical repair phase. One can try to buy call options below $4400 per ounce to seize the opportunity of a phased rebound [2] - As gold stops falling, silver may gradually bottom out around $60 - $65, with an upper resistance at $85. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of out - of - the - money call options on Shanghai silver futures [2] - Platinum and palladium are following the trends of gold and silver, entering a volatile phase. Platinum fluctuates in the range of $1850 - $2000, while palladium fluctuates in the range of $1450 - $1600. Since the fundamentals of palladium are relatively weaker, one can try to go long on the platinum - palladium ratio at low prices [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2606 contract closed at 998.66 yuan per gram on March 27, up 2.68 yuan (0.27%) from March 26 [2] - AG2606 contract closed at 17,489 yuan per kilogram on March 27, up 17 yuan (0.10%) from March 26 [2] - PT2606 contract closed at 493.05 yuan on March 27, up 5.65 yuan (1.16%) from March 26 [2] - PD2606 contract closed at 358.20 yuan per gram on March 27, up 4.85 yuan (1.37%) from March 26 [2] 2. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4489.70 on March 27, up 112.80 (2.58%) from March 26 [2] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 69.77 on March 27, up 1.65 (2.41%) from March 26 [2] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $1866.40 per ounce on March 27, up $53.10 (2.93%) from March 26 [2] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1384.50 on March 27, up 19.50 (1.43%) from March 26 [2] 3. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4493.36 on March 27, up 113.54 (2.59%) from the previous value [2] - London silver was at 69.73 on March 27, up 1.67 (2.45%) from the previous value [2] - Spot platinum was at $1849.00 per ounce on March 27, down $20.00 (- 1.07%) from the previous value [2] - Spot palladium was at 1387.00 on March 27, up 15.00 (1.09%) from the previous value [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 992.45 yuan per gram on March 27, up 2.68 yuan (0.27%) from the previous value [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 17467 yuan per kilogram on March 27, up 175 yuan (1.01%) from the previous value [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 477 yuan per gram on March 27, down 8 yuan (- 1.55%) from the previous value [2] 4. Spreads - The spread between gold TD and Shanghai gold main contract was - 6.21, unchanged from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [2] - The spread between silver TD and Shanghai silver main contract was - 22, up 158 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [2] - The spread between London gold and COMEX gold was 3.66, up 0.74 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.20% [2] - The spread between London silver and COMEX silver was - 0.05, up 0.02 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 59.70% [2] 5. Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold to silver was 64.35, up 0.10 (0.16%) from the previous value [2] - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold to silver was 57.10, up 0.10 (0.17%) from the previous value [2] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum to palladium was 1.35, up 0.02 (1.48%) from the previous value [2] - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum to palladium was 1.38, unchanged from the previous value, with a change rate of - 0.21% [2] 6. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44% on March 27, up 0.02 percentage points (0.5%) from the previous value [2] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88% on March 27, down 0.08 percentage points (- 2.0%) from the previous value [2] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.13% on March 27, up 0.05 percentage points (2.4%) from the previous value [2] - The US dollar index was 100.17 on March 27, up 0.26 (0.26%) from the previous value [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9198 on March 27, down 0.0007 (- 0.01%) from the previous value [2] 7. Inventories and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 106,644 kilograms on March 27, down 99 kilograms (- 0.09%) from the previous value [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 371,799 on March 27, up 1500 (0.41%) from the previous value [2] - COMEX gold inventory was 31,713,528 on March 27, down 192,945 (- 0.60%) from the previous value [2] - COMEX silver inventory was 328,297,364 on March 27, down 250,587 (- 0.08%) from the previous value [2] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16,618,235 on March 27, down 123,951 (- 0.74%) from the previous value [2] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 76,024,857 on March 27, down 1,144,816 (- 1.48%) from the previous value [2] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1053 on March 27, up 0.28 (0.03%) from the previous value [2] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15,409 on March 27, unchanged from the previous value [2]
格林大华期货贵金属期货一季报
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-03-28 07:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and investors should pay attention to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [77] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - **Gold Trend**: On January 29, 2026, Shanghai gold hit a high of 1258.72 yuan/gram. After the US President announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the Fed Chairman, the market tumbled. It rebounded in February overall. After the US - Israel - Iran conflict on February 28, it rose on March 2 but then fell continuously, and closed around 1000 on March 27 [7] - **Silver Trend**: On January 30, 2026, Shanghai silver hit a high of 32382 yuan/kg and then fell sharply. It rebounded after February 6. After the US - Israel - Iran conflict on February 28, it rose on March 2, then fell continuously, and closed around 17500 on March 27 [10] 3.2. Current Analysis - **Inventory Analysis** - **Gold Inventory**: Since February this year, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory has been stable at around 105 tons. COMEX gold inventory decreased from 36.26 million ounces (1128 tons) at the end of 2025 to 31.71 million ounces on March 27 [16] - **Silver Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory decreased from 692 tons at the end of 2025 to 253 tons on March 9 and then rebounded to 372 tons on March 27. COMEX silver inventory decreased from about 450 million ounces (about 14000 tons) at the end of 2025 to 328 million ounces on March 27. The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased from 774 tons at the end of 2025 to 276 tons on March 13 and was 301 tons on March 20 [20][25] - **ETF Holdings** - **Gold ETF**: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reached a high of 1101.33 tons at the end of February and then declined to 1052.705 tons on March 27. The continuous out - flow in recent weeks has put pressure on prices [28] - **Silver ETF**: The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, declined continuously in March, hitting a low of 15185.94 on March 19, a decrease of 8.2% from the high of 16546.59 on February 2, and then rebounded slightly [30] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The London spot gold - silver ratio hit a low of 45 on January 29, then rebounded, fluctuated around 60 in February, and was 66 on March 27 [34] - **US Economic Data** - **GDP**: The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, far lower than the expected 3.0%, with the government shutdown dragging down GDP by about 1 percentage point [36] - **Unemployment Rate**: The US unemployment rate was 4.4% in February, 4.3% in January, 4.4% in December last year, 4.5% in November, and 4.4% in September and August [39] - **Non - farm Payrolls**: In February, the US non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, while the forecast was an increase of 55,000 [42] - **CPI**: In February, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [45] - **PCE**: In January, the US core PCE increased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations [48] - **PPI**: In February, the US PPI increased by 3.4% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3.0%. The core PPI increased by 3.9% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3.7% [51] - **PMI**: In February, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the market expectation of 51.5. The US ISM services index rose to 56.1, the highest since mid - 2022 [54] - **Interest Rate and Market Indicators** - **Fed Interest Rate**: The Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in March. According to CME "FedWatch" on March 26, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike in April is 6.2%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 93.8% [56] - **US Treasury Yield**: After the US - Israel - Iran conflict on February 28, the US Treasury yield rebounded due to concerns about inflation [60] - **US Dollar Exchange Rate**: After the US - Israel - Iran conflict on February 28, the US dollar index rose due to risk - aversion sentiment [64] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of Shanghai gold and silver options is high. It is recommended to wait and see for now [68][72] 3.3. Strategy Suggestion - In January this year, gold accelerated its rise and silver skyrocketed. After the nomination of Kevin Warsh, the precious metals market tumbled. After the US - Israel - Iran conflict, gold only rose slightly and then fell. The ongoing war has pushed up inflation expectations, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has turned to a possible rate hike. The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields have suppressed precious metals. Short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and investors should pay attention to the Iranian situation and control positions [77]
贵金属数据日报-20260327
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 07:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the precious metals market may face a "headwind" environment. Before the Middle - East geopolitical situation becomes clear, the core variables affecting the trend are still oil prices and monetary policy expectations. Prices are expected to oscillate repeatedly at high levels. It is recommended that investors wait and see in the short - term. [7] - In the long - term, the deep adjustment of precious metals prices does not mean the end of the "bull market". The long - term supporting factors (geopolitical uncertainty, huge US debt, de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases, etc.) remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metals market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On March 26, 2026, London gold spot was at $4457.21 per ounce, down 2.0% from March 25; London silver spot was at $70.02 per ounce, down 4.3%. COMEX gold was at $4452.20 per ounce, down 2.1%; COMEX silver was at $70.16 per ounce, down 4.3%. AU2604 was at 992.96 yuan per gram, down 1.8%; AG2604 was at 17519.00 yuan per kilogram, down 3.6%. AU (T + D) was at 992.50 yuan per gram, down 1.8%; AG (T + D) was at 17459.00 yuan per kilogram, down 3.5%. [5] - The price differences and their changes: For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference on March 26 was - 0.46 yuan per gram, with a 31.4% increase from March 25. [5] 3.2 Position Data - As of March 25, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.42 tons, down 0.05% from March 24; the silver ETF - SLV was 15513.67372 tons, with no change. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 215961 contracts, up 0.24%; non - commercial short positions were 56092 contracts, up 7.22%; non - commercial net long positions were 159869 contracts, down 2.00%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 31125 contracts, down 6.55%; non - commercial short positions were 9244 contracts, up 5.91%; non - commercial net long positions were 21881 contracts, down 10.97%. [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - On March 26, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, with no change from March 25; SHFE silver inventory was 370299.00 kilograms, down 1.54%. COMEX gold inventory on March 25 was 31945633 troy ounces, down 0.22% from March 24; COMEX silver inventory was 328841370 troy ounces, down 0.79%. [5] 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On March 26, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.91, up 0.21% from March 25. The US dollar index on March 25 was 99.63, up 0.41% from March 24. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.84%, down 1.54%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, down 1.37%. The VIX was 25.33, down 6.01%; the S&P 500 was 6591.90, up 0.54%; NYWEX crude oil was $91.29, up 3.28%. [5] 3.5 Market Review - On March 26, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.28% to 995.98 yuan per gram; the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.85% to 17472 yuan per kilogram. [5] 3.6 Impact Analysis - Contradictory news about the US - Iran negotiation filled the market. After a phased rebound and repair, the precious metals market's main line returned to the game between oil prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policies. [6] - The US is still deploying more military forces to the Middle East, and the market is worried that the US may soon escalate military actions against Iran. High oil prices have increased the market's attention to the Fed's possible interest rate hikes this year. The market currently expects the probability of the Fed's interest rate hikes this year to be around 50%. The US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have strengthened again, putting pressure on precious metals prices. [6] - The rebound and repair of precious metals prices in the past two months have reached a phased pressure level. Since there is still no clear upward driver for precious metals prices in the short - term, the bears have the upper hand in the long - short game, suppressing the prices. [6]
广发期货《金融》日报-20260327
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 02:08
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time historical percentiles of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures price - spot price spreads and inter - period spreads are presented. For example, the IF futures price - spot price spread is - 81.53, with a change of 5.93 from the previous day, and 1 - year and all - time historical percentiles of 2.40% and 2.20% respectively [1]. - The ratios of different stock indices such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., along with their changes and percentiles, are provided. For instance, the CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 1.7068, with a change of - 0.0051, and 1 - year and all - time historical percentiles of 81.50% and 77.30% respectively [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - The latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of the basis and inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures are given. For example, the TS basis on March 26, 2026, is 0.0400, with a change of 0.0012 from the previous day, and a percentile of 8.809 since listing [3]. - The cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures, such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., along with their changes and percentiles, are presented. For example, the TS - TF spread on March 26, 2026, is - 3.4600, with a change of - 0.0450, and a percentile of 13.10% [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - The closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of domestic and foreign precious metal futures contracts on March 26 and March 25 are reported. For example, the AU2606 contract closed at 095.98 on March 26, down 17.98 (- 1.77%) from March 25 [4]. - The spot prices, price changes, and price change rates of precious metals such as London gold, London silver, etc., are provided. For example, the price of London gold on March 26 is 4379.82, down 125.49 (- 2.79%) from March 25 [4]. - The basis values, their changes, and historical 1 - year percentiles are presented. For example, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 6.21, with a change of - 6.69, and a 1 - year historical percentile of 46.10% [4]. - The ratios between different precious metals, along with their changes and price change rates, are given. For example, the COMEX gold/silver ratio is 64.25, up 1.22 (1.93%) [4]. - The values of interest rates, exchange rates, inventories, and positions, along with their changes, are reported. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.42, up 0.09 (2.1%) [4]. - Investment suggestions are provided: in the short - term, although the US is actively promoting peace talks with Iran, reaching a cease - fire agreement may be difficult, and there may be intense conflicts, causing the gold price to fall again. In the medium - to - long - term, allocation should be cautious. In the short - term, one can try to buy call options around $4400 to seize the opportunity of a phased recovery. Silver may gradually bottom out around $60 - 65, with resistance at $85. It is recommended to continue holding short positions of out - of - the - money call options on Shanghai silver. Platinum and palladium fluctuate widely following the trends of gold and silver, with platinum fluctuating in the range of $1850 - 2000 and palladium in the range of $1450 - 1600 [4].
贵金属期现日报-20260327
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 02:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, although the US is actively promoting peace talks with Iran, the conditions for reaching a cease - fire agreement may be harsh. There is a possibility of intense conflicts between the two sides, causing the gold price to fall again. Gold ETF funds may stop flowing out, and there will be a liquidity shock. In the medium - to - long - term, allocation should be cautious. Intraday, one can try to buy call options around $4400 to seize the opportunity of a phased recovery [2] - The silver correction may gradually bottom out around $60 - 65, with resistance at $85. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of out - of - the - money call options on Shanghai silver [2] - Platinum and palladium follow the wide - range fluctuations of gold and silver. Platinum fluctuates in the range of $1850 - 2000, and palladium fluctuates in the range of $1450 - 1600 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2606 contract closed at 995.98 yuan/gram on March 26, down 1.77% from the previous day [2] - AG2606 contract closed at 17472 yuan/kilogram on March 26, down 3.53% from the previous day [2] - PT2606 contract closed at 487.40 yuan/gram on March 26, down 3.65% from the previous day [2] - PD2606 contract closed at 353.35 yuan/gram on March 26, down 4.12% from the previous day [2] 3.2 Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4376.90 on March 26, down 2.81% from the previous day [2] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 68.13 dollars/ounce on March 26, down 4.65% from the previous day [2] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 1813.30 on March 26, down 5.06% from the previous day [2] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1365.00 on March 26, down 3.77% from the previous day [2] 3.3 Spot Prices - London gold was at 4379.82 on March 26, down 2.79% from the previous day [2] - London silver was at 68.06 dollars/ounce on March 26, down 4.38% from the previous day [2] - Spot platinum was at 1869.00 dollars/ounce on March 26, down 4.15% from the previous day [2] - Spot palladium was at 1372.00 on March 26, down 4.32% from the previous day [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 989.77 yuan/gram on March 26, down 2.43% from the previous day [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 17292 yuan/ten grams on March 26, down 4.57% from the previous day [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 485 yuan/gram on March 26, down 4.88% from the previous day [2] 3.4 Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 6.21, down 6.69 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [2] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 180, down 190 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [2] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 9.13, up 4.16 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 75.60% [2] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.37, down 0.15 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 21.70% [2] 3.5 Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 64.25, up 1.93% from the previous day [2] - The ratio of SHFE main gold/silver was 57.00, up 1.82% from the previous day [2] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.33, down 1.34% from the previous day [2] - The ratio of GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.38, up 0.50% from the previous day [2] 3.6 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 2.1% from the previous day [2] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.96%, up 3.1% from the previous day [2] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.08%, up 3.0% from the previous day [2] - The US dollar index was 99.92, up 0.29% from the previous day [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9206, up 0.23% from the previous day [2] 3.7 Inventories and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 106743, unchanged from the previous day [2] - The SHFE silver inventory was 370299 kilograms, down 1.54% from the previous day [2] - The COMEX gold inventory was 31906473, down 0.12% from the previous day [2] - The COMEX silver inventory was 328547950, down 0.09% from the previous day [2] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16742186, down 0.12% from the previous day [2] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 77169673, up 0.65% from the previous day [2] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1053, up 0.03% from the previous day [2] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15409, down 0.67% from the previous day [2]