Market Commentary - The market is experiencing a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.36% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.02% on October 21, 2025, supported by a trading volume of 1.89 trillion yuan, an 8% increase from the previous trading day [3] - Most industries are seeing gains, particularly in telecommunications (up 4.89%), electronics (up 3.21%), and real estate (up 2.26%), while coal is the only sector declining (down 1.05%) [3] Key Insights - The expectation of interest rate cuts is increasing, with several small and medium-sized banks lowering deposit rates, indicating a potential for further monetary easing by the central bank in the fourth quarter [3] - The demand for optical modules is expected to continue growing, with Nvidia raising its shipment expectations for the new AI chip Vera Rubin, leading to significant stock price increases for key players in the optical module sector [3] - State media has published articles emphasizing that stabilizing the stock market can enhance consumer confidence and spending, which is expected to positively impact market sentiment [4] Growth Cycle Analysis - Historical data suggests that the current healthy adjustment phase in the growth industry cycle is nearing its end, typically lasting 1-2 months with maximum adjustments of 15-20% [5] - The upcoming release of Q3 earnings reports and potential high-level meetings between the US and China are seen as critical events that could validate the market's transition into a new performance-driven phase [5][7] - The report identifies two main investment themes: the ongoing growth cycle in AI infrastructure and sectors with strong performance support, such as power equipment and non-ferrous metals [7][8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the current period is an optimal time to position for the next phase of growth, with a focus on sectors like AI computing infrastructure, robotics, and military technology [7] - The second key investment theme includes sectors with robust support, such as power equipment benefiting from wind energy and storage demand, and non-ferrous metals like rare earths, which are resilient amid changing US-China relations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) sector in the A-share market is experiencing a strong performance driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power, leading to significant price increases in multiple stocks [1][4]. Industry Overview - The CPO technology effectively overcomes traditional optical module limitations in bandwidth, power consumption, and density, making it well-suited for high-frequency data interactions required in AI scenarios [4]. - Recent reports indicate a positive outlook for CPO and related optical modules, with major overseas clients increasing their procurement plans for 1.6T optical modules from 10 million to 20 million units due to rising bandwidth demands [4]. - The global Ethernet optical module market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of a 35% increase to $18.9 billion by 2026 and surpassing $35 billion by 2030 [4]. Company Performance - Companies like Dongshan Precision are experiencing a significant supply shortage in the optical chip market, particularly for high-speed products (800G and above), which is expected to persist in the short term [5]. - Zhongji Xuchuang has begun shipping 1.6T optical modules and anticipates continued mass production and delivery in the upcoming quarters [6]. - Yuanjie Technology expects a substantial increase in demand for 400G/800G optical modules in the second half of the year, driven by customer transitions from GPU to ASIC chips [6]. Financial Results - Shijia Photon reported a revenue of 1.56 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 113.96%, with a net profit of 299 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 727.74% [8]. - Luxshare Precision's net profit for the first three quarters is projected to be between 10.89 billion and 11.34 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 20% to 25% [8]. - Zhongshi Technology expects a net profit of 230 million to 270 million yuan for the first three quarters, a significant increase of 74.16% to 104.45% year-on-year [8]. Market Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic view on the sustained growth of optical module demand, driven by the ongoing explosion in AI computing needs [9]. - Leading optical module companies are expected to maintain strong profitability and competitive advantages due to the global data center construction and upgrade wave [9]. - The increasing reliability requirements and shortened iteration cycles for optical modules are raising industry technical barriers, further highlighting the advantages of leading manufacturers [9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The optical module industry is experiencing rapid growth, with 800G technology becoming a key growth driver. Global demand for 800G is expected to reach 30 million units, with a market size of 100 billion RMB, indicating that "whoever masters 800G will dominate the market" [1][4] - The industry is characterized by a stable structure, dominated by companies such as Coherent, Lumentum, and domestic player Xinyi Yisheng. Upstream chip companies like Broadcom and Marvell have strong pricing power, with potential opportunities emerging in the 3.2T era [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **800G Demand**: The anticipated demand for 800G is expected to remain robust, with industry confidence growing after a period of adjustment. This mirrors market behavior observed in mid-2024 [3] - **CSP Technology**: While CSP technology is gaining attention, pluggable optical modules remain the mainstream choice. The development of CSP technology will take time, and pluggable products will continue to dominate in the near future [1][5] - **Passive Products**: Companies like Shijia Photon, Bochuang, and Taicheng are showing strong performance in passive products, indicating ongoing growth potential in this segment [1][6] - **Photon Penetration**: Increased photon penetration is driving industry growth, with discussions among major companies like Nvidia and Broadcom highlighting the advantages of Optical IO in terms of cost and power consumption [1][8][9] Additional Important Insights - **Distributed Construction Demand**: There is a growing need for distributed construction in both North America and China to meet low-latency inference requirements, benefiting companies like Corning, Ciena, and Lumentum [1][10][11] - **Impact of AI Chip Policies**: New U.S. policies limiting HBM bandwidth and IO bandwidth are expected to weaken AI chip performance, favoring domestic graphics card alternatives. Domestic graphics cards are projected to start shipping in Q3 2025, improving market conditions [2][13][14] - **Market Sentiment**: The recent market performance of optical modules reflects a more rational long-term view of industry progress, driven by advancements in AI models and sustained capital expenditures [1][16] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the optical module industry and related developments.