10Y Treasury Bond

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【笔记20251016— “老登股”,债市的老朋友】
债券笔记· 2025-10-16 11:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the behavioral patterns of investors, highlighting a tendency to be overly tolerant of losses while being quick to take profits, leading to a cycle of small gains and significant losses [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a 2,360 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,760 billion yuan [3]. - The interbank funding rates remain stable, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.42% [4]. - The stock market experienced a pullback after reaching near previous highs, influenced by ongoing US-China trade tensions and a slight decline in interest rates [6]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed stability, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.7575%, reflecting a slight downward trend [6]. - The "old friends" in the bond market, referred to as "old Deng stocks," have been performing well, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards bonds [7]. - The yield on long-term bonds has shown a stronger performance, with the 10-year bond yield decreasing to approximately 1.753% [6][7]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted rates for various repurchase agreements indicate a slight increase in R007 to 1.48%, while R001 remains stable at 1.35% [5]. - The interest rates for government bonds across different maturities show a mixed trend, with some rates experiencing slight declines [9].
【笔记20250818— 债市连阴雨:股市暴击,债基赎回,资金收敛】
债券笔记· 2025-08-18 15:03
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting the impact of stock market performance and liquidity conditions on bond yields and investor behavior [4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The stock market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high, breaking through 3731.69 points [7]. - The bond market is experiencing increased redemption from bond funds, indicating a shift in investor sentiment as they react to stock market movements [4][7]. Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - The liquidity in the market is tightening, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan through reverse repos [4]. - The funding rates have slightly increased, with DR001 around 1.45% and DR007 at approximately 1.51% [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Movements - Long-term bond yields have risen significantly, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing to around 1.76% [7]. - The highest yield observed during the day reached 1.789%, before settling back to approximately 1.77% [7]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - There is a prevailing cautious sentiment among bond investors, as indicated by the increased redemption of bond funds amidst stock market volatility [8]. - The article suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a reallocation of investment strategies, with some bond investors considering a shift towards equities [8].
【笔记20241231— 2024债市投资666,2025债市生涯999
债券笔记· 2024-12-31 12:31
当我们的交易信号与内心的预期相冲突时,就很难去坚定地执行交易系统。你的预判,或许是由自己的分析体系得出的,也或许是人性弱点推动的,但只 要是内心与出入场信号不一致,在下单执行交易时就会变的犹豫纠结。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20241231— 2024债市投资666,2025债市生涯999(+制造业PMI低于预期+股市大跌+央行买断式逆回购14000亿+央行净买入国债3000亿+跨年资金 平稳=中下)】 资金面收敛转松,长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展1577亿元7天期逆回购操作,今日有641亿元逆回购到期。净投放936亿元。 资金面收敛,跨年资金偏贵,DR007上行至1.98%,尾盘转松,平稳跨年。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 31 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | ...