1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025 theoretical net financing scale of national debt is 6.66 trillion yuan, and the estimated annual net financing scale is 6.72 trillion yuan, which is relatively close to the theoretical scale [1][2]. - The change in the fourth - quarter national debt issuance plan will affect the pricing of ultra - long - term national debt individual bonds, especially the 30 - year bonds. Bond 25T2 is likely to become the main bond again, and bond 25T6 may follow bond 25T5 in pricing [3][20]. - For 30 - year national debt trading, focus on bond 25T2; for allocation, consider bonds such as 25T5, 24T1, 230023, and 250002, but their spread compression probability with the active bond 25T2 will increase only when the bond market performs well. The 20 - year and 50 - year special national debts have no obvious spread advantage [5][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 From the national debt issuance plan to see the subsequent supply rhythm of national debt - According to the Two Sessions, the 2025 central fiscal deficit scale is 4.86 trillion yuan for ordinary national debt, 1.30 trillion yuan for ultra - long - term special national debt, and 0.50 trillion yuan for capital injection special national debt, with a total theoretical net financing scale of 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the end of September, the net financing scale was 5.40 trillion yuan [1][11]. - In 2025, the number of national debt issuances in each quarter is 42, 56, 57, and 49 respectively. The difference between the fourth and third quarters lies in the decrease of ultra - long - term special national debt and the increase of ultra - long - term ordinary national debt. Assuming the fourth - quarter issuance continues the current progress, the remaining 70 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special national debt will be issued in October. The estimated monthly issuance scale from October to December is about 1.40 trillion yuan, and the net financing scales are 0.38 trillion yuan, 1.02 trillion yuan, and - 0.08 trillion yuan respectively [2][14]. 3.2 Impact of the national debt issuance plan on the pricing of ultra - long - term individual bonds - The fourth - quarter national debt issuance plan is different from the one announced in April. The 30 - year ultra - long - term special national debt will not be re - issued in October. The new bond 25T6's scale growth expectation may be falsified, and its probability of continuing as the main bond will decline, while 25T2 is likely to become the main bond again [3][20]. - Bond 25T6 may follow bond 25T5 in pricing, and the spread between 25T6 and 25T5 may maintain at 6 - 12BP (corresponding to 3% - 6% VAT). Currently, the spread has rebounded to about 4.5BP, and there is a possibility of further increase [4][21]. - The spread between non - main and main 30 - year bonds has widened significantly. Non - main bonds have allocation value, but the allocation power may not be strong because institutions prefer local bonds with higher interest rates [4][22].