利率层面，根据2025年中央经济工作会议的精神，货币政策继续维持"适度宽松"的取向，具体操作层面，会议提出"灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具"，表述重点更多落在政策的效率和主动性上，2026年的降息幅度预计和2025年类似。在利率趋势方面，预计分为两阶 段，呈现先下后上的走势。第一阶段（2026年一季度），利率下行。受益于继续维持"适度宽松"的货币政策思路，预计债市短期内在下行 之后会形成反弹力量，在下一次降息落地之前，预计利率将震荡下行。一方面是近期隔夜资金利率站稳1.3%以下，流动性呵护态度明显， 另一方面是随着2026年初财政供给提速，货币政策落地预期也将提升。第二阶段（2026年二季度后），利率上行。随着后续通胀走势的复 苏，以及房地产企稳的见效，2026年利率或是先下后上。 明明（中信证券首席经济学家） 2025年，债券市场整体呈现"上有顶、下有底"的区间震荡格局。展望2026年，债券市场预计将延续分化与震荡格局，以下几类债券可能具 备更显著的相对价值。 首先，在货币政策维持适度宽松、资金面预计保持平稳的背景下，中短端利率债及高等级信用债能提供较为稳定的票息收益，是构建组合 底仓、抵御波动的核心 ...

明明(中信证券首席经济学家) 2025年，债券市场整体呈现"上有顶、下有底"的区间震荡格局。展望2026年，债券市场预计将延续分化与震荡格局，以下几类债券可能具 备更显著的相对价值。 首先，在货币政策维持适度宽松、资金面预计保持平稳的背景下，中短端利率债及高等级信用债能提供较为稳定的票息收益，是构建组合 底仓、抵御波动的核心。同时，市场对2026年进一步降准降息仍有预期，在市场波动时，这类资产凭借其较好的流动性，能提供更优的风 险调整后回报。 其次，超长期国债在经历深度调整后，其绝对收益率已具备一定的吸引力。虽然中长期看，在宏观叙事更加积极的环境下，超长债波动加 剧可能成为常态，但在短期缺乏进一步利空催化的情况下，超长债已具备交易性的反弹价值。对于配置型机构而言，在利率上行至一定区 间后，超长债也能提供更高的期限溢价。 再者，聚焦区域与行业的信用债挖掘。在整体信用利差处于低位的环境下，相对价值更应来自于精细化的结构性挖掘。例如，针对2026年 化债政策的落地情况，优选区域，或者根据行业景气度的变化，优选行业。此外，"十五五"规划建议强调科技创新和产业创新深度融合， 相关领域的产业债或科创债也可能存在政策支持带 ...

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI生图 今年债市整体的性价比很低，超长期国债尤为明显。即便做波段，胜算也相对有限。近期超长债持 续走弱，价格不断回调。即便是今年不看好国债的我，也开始关注其中出现的一些阶段性机会。 那么，超长期国债是什么？ 简单来说，就是到期年限在20年及以上的国债，这类国债主要由保险、养老金等长期资金进行配 置。普通投资者较为常见的参与方式，是场内的30年期国债ETF （511090） 。 为什么很多普通者会选择30年国债ETF？主要因为它的弹性大。 期限越长，国债价格对利率变化越 敏感 。当利率处于趋势性下行阶段时，这种高久期特征往往能够被充分放大。 2024年就是典型的例子。这一年，30年期国债ETF （511090） 收涨了23.21%，收益率相当可观。 进入今年年初，超长债虽然延续了约两个月的债牛行情，但随后逐步进入回调通道，近期跌幅尤为 明显。 从11月初至12月8日，30年期国债ETF （511090） 累计下跌 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Long-term Bonds Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the long-term bond market, particularly focusing on the 30-year government bonds in China and their recent performance trends [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Rising Yields**: Since July, the yields on long-term government bonds have risen sharply, influenced by a reversal of deflation expectations and breakthroughs in technology independence, which have elevated risk appetite in the A-share market [1][2]. - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the market has been weak, with a notable increase in anxiety among investors as the 30-year bond yield rose nearly 10 basis points last week [2]. - **Investor Behavior**: There has been a significant shift in investor behavior, with many moving away from buying into the 30-year bond ETF during the recent downturn, indicating a preference for stop-loss strategies rather than bottom-fishing [3]. - **Banking Sector Impact**: Commercial banks are facing reduced capacity to absorb bonds due to stricter regulatory oversight on interest rate risks, year-end profit adjustments, and the cessation of long-term deposit products [3]. - **Insurance Companies**: Life insurance companies are experiencing a slowdown in premium growth and are increasingly favoring equity assets, leading to decreased demand for long-term government bonds [3]. - **Supply Side Dynamics**: The issuance of special government bonds is expected to continue until 2026, which will likely increase the supply of long-term bonds. Additionally, rising yields in overseas markets, such as Japan, are affecting domestic market sentiment [3][4]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - **Current Market Conditions**: It is deemed unwise to attempt to bottom-fish in the long-term bond market at this time, as the repricing process is not yet complete. The yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds in China is still lower than that in the US and Japan, indicating a mispricing that needs correction [4][5]. - **Short-term Opportunities**: Potential short-term trading opportunities may arise from new public fund fee regulations or increased bond purchases by the central bank, although these are not expected to reverse the overall market trend [4][5]. - **Risk Appetite**: For risk-tolerant investors, there is an arbitrage opportunity in the 30-10 year yield spread, which has exceeded 40 basis points. However, investors should be prepared for volatility [5]. - **Conservative Strategies**: Conservative investors are advised to adopt a leveraged carry strategy, as the current funding environment is stable and favorable for such approaches [5]. Additional Important Points - **Market Volatility**: The volatility in the A-share market has not weakened the macro trend, and investors with a higher risk appetite are encouraged to explore opportunities in the 10-year bond market, which is currently at the upper end of its trading range [2][5]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term bond market is expected to continue its repricing process, and the best strategy remains leveraging carry strategies in the medium to long term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025 theoretical net financing scale of national debt is 6.66 trillion yuan, and the estimated annual net financing scale is 6.72 trillion yuan, which is relatively close to the theoretical scale [1][2]. - The change in the fourth - quarter national debt issuance plan will affect the pricing of ultra - long - term national debt individual bonds, especially the 30 - year bonds. Bond 25T2 is likely to become the main bond again, and bond 25T6 may follow bond 25T5 in pricing [3][20]. - For 30 - year national debt trading, focus on bond 25T2; for allocation, consider bonds such as 25T5, 24T1, 230023, and 250002, but their spread compression probability with the active bond 25T2 will increase only when the bond market performs well. The 20 - year and 50 - year special national debts have no obvious spread advantage [5][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 From the national debt issuance plan to see the subsequent supply rhythm of national debt - According to the Two Sessions, the 2025 central fiscal deficit scale is 4.86 trillion yuan for ordinary national debt, 1.30 trillion yuan for ultra - long - term special national debt, and 0.50 trillion yuan for capital injection special national debt, with a total theoretical net financing scale of 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the end of September, the net financing scale was 5.40 trillion yuan [1][11]. - In 2025, the number of national debt issuances in each quarter is 42, 56, 57, and 49 respectively. The difference between the fourth and third quarters lies in the decrease of ultra - long - term special national debt and the increase of ultra - long - term ordinary national debt. Assuming the fourth - quarter issuance continues the current progress, the remaining 70 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special national debt will be issued in October. The estimated monthly issuance scale from October to December is about 1.40 trillion yuan, and the net financing scales are 0.38 trillion yuan, 1.02 trillion yuan, and - 0.08 trillion yuan respectively [2][14]. 3.2 Impact of the national debt issuance plan on the pricing of ultra - long - term individual bonds - The fourth - quarter national debt issuance plan is different from the one announced in April. The 30 - year ultra - long - term special national debt will not be re - issued in October. The new bond 25T6's scale growth expectation may be falsified, and its probability of continuing as the main bond will decline, while 25T2 is likely to become the main bond again [3][20]. - Bond 25T6 may follow bond 25T5 in pricing, and the spread between 25T6 and 25T5 may maintain at 6 - 12BP (corresponding to 3% - 6% VAT). Currently, the spread has rebounded to about 4.5BP, and there is a possibility of further increase [4][21]. - The spread between non - main and main 30 - year bonds has widened significantly. Non - main bonds have allocation value, but the allocation power may not be strong because institutions prefer local bonds with higher interest rates [4][22].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rally, with market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating the beginning of a "slow bull" market. In contrast, the bond market is facing a downturn, with the 30-year government bond futures experiencing their largest decline in months, highlighting a "risk preference" shift in the current macroeconomic landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Dynamics - The steady rise in the A-share market is driven by optimistic expectations regarding policy benefits, market reforms, and economic stabilization, leading to an increase in investor risk appetite and a shift of funds from stable assets to high-risk equity assets [1][2]. - The stock market's strong performance is often associated with economic recovery and potential inflation expectations, which diminishes the market's expectations for macroeconomic policy easing, thereby putting pressure on bond prices [2][3]. Group 2: Bond Market Adjustments - The recent adjustments in the bond market are primarily due to direct impacts from fund diversion, rather than changes in the credit risk of bonds themselves. The bond market's decline reflects a reset of the market risk pricing model [2][3]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term fundamentals supporting the bond market remain intact, suggesting that the disturbances caused by the stock market are likely to be temporary [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Bonds - The peak of government bond net issuance for the year has passed, leading to a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which is favorable for the stabilization and recovery of the bond market [4]. - Bonds, as "safe-haven assets," offer relatively stable returns and lower risk levels, making them attractive to large institutions and individual investors seeking diversified asset allocation [4].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates and raised inflation expectations, but the comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda were perceived as not sufficiently hawkish, leading to a significant depreciation of the yen [1][3][4] - Following the central bank meeting, the yen initially strengthened but reversed course after Ueda's remarks, dropping 0.4% to 150.04, marking a new low since April 2 [3][4] - Analysts noted that the central bank's lack of a hawkish stance diminished market expectations for a near-term rate hike, with the probability of a rate increase for the year now at 66%, up from 59% before the US-Japan trade agreement [4][5] Group 2 - The recent US-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% tariff imposed by the US, has complicated the Bank of Japan's policy-making, as Ueda indicated that the agreement would make it easier to assess the impact of tariffs in the coming months [5][6] - Political instability in Japan has further complicated market dynamics, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition losing its majority in the upper house, raising concerns about potential increases in government spending [5][6] - The uncertainty surrounding domestic politics has weakened the yen and increased long-term government bond yields, with analysts suggesting that the decision to maintain interest rates was more about disaster control than a directional policy shift [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, focusing on interest rates, government financing, and corporate profitability [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Conditions**: June economic data shows significant divergence in supply and demand, with household income growth lagging behind GDP growth. External demand for exports to the U.S. has sharply declined, indicating persistent insufficient total demand [1][3]. 2. **Government Financing**: It is projected that government financing will decrease by over 2 trillion yuan in the second half of 2025, following a peak in social financing growth in July. This decline in financing is expected to contribute to lower interest rates [1][4]. 3. **Corporate Profitability**: Corporate profit margins are under pressure due to declining total demand and trade tensions, resulting in low investment returns. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy, alleviating concerns about policy tightening [1][5]. 4. **Interest Rate Projections**: The current central level for the 10-year government bond yield is 1.5%, with the current yield at 1.7%. Short-term projections suggest that rates may decline further, potentially falling below 1.5% [1][7]. 5. **Liquidity Management**: The central bank's operations indicate a stable interest rate level around 1.8% during tight liquidity periods. The reasonable range for current operations is estimated between 1.4% and 1.7% [1][8]. 6. **Asset-Liability Matching**: Banks are achieving a yield of approximately 1.5% on mortgages, while the yields on 10-year and ultra-long government bonds are 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively. Insurance companies are also adjusting their guaranteed rates below 2%, making long-term bonds attractive [1][9]. 7. **Redemption Pressure**: Current redemption pressure is primarily preventive and not indicative of a trend, similar to the situation in August 2024. The market is not expected to experience significant volatility due to this preventive redemption [2][10]. 8. **Market Outlook**: The third quarter is expected to see increased volatility in funding rates, but the overall range will remain between OMO reductions of 20 basis points and increases of 20 basis points, indicating a more accommodative environment compared to the second quarter [2][11]. Additional Important Content - The notes emphasize the lack of significant counter-cyclical demand policies to address the ongoing economic challenges, which could further impact total demand and interest rates [1][3]. - The analysis suggests that the bond market is not at risk of a trend reversal to bearish conditions, as the fundamental factors driving interest rates downward remain unchanged [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda Soichi emphasizes the need to be cautious about the rising risk premium associated with ultra-long-term government bonds and the increasing volatility of the yield curve, which could inadvertently trigger a broad transmission of monetary tightening effects in the market [1] Group 1 - The risk premium for ultra-long-term government bonds is on the rise [1] - There is an increase in the volatility of the yield curve [1] - These factors may lead to unintended consequences in the form of monetary tightening effects spreading throughout the market [1]

Group 1 - U.S. financial markets are closed on Thursday, with U.S. stock futures and European stocks declining, as Nasdaq 100 futures fell over 1% [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is accelerating the review of export license applications related to rare earths in accordance with laws and regulations [1] - The Chinese National Narcotics Control Office has decided to regulate N-ethylpentylone and 12 new psychoactive substances [1] Group 2 - The White House spokesperson stated that Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran [1] - Trump has repeatedly called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 2.5 percentage points and criticized Powell as foolish [1] - The EU is pushing for a "UK-style" trade agreement with the U.S., increasingly accepting a 10% tariff level as a baseline for trade agreements [1] Group 3 - Canada is considering raising countermeasures against U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs to protect domestic industries [1] - The Bank of England maintained its current policy but signaled a dovish stance, with the number of officials supporting rate cuts exceeding expectations, raising the likelihood of two 25 basis point cuts this year [1] - Japan is adjusting its bond issuance plan, significantly reducing the issuance of super long-term bonds by over 10% and increasing the issuance of short-term bonds [1] Group 4 - A reminder that China's June LPR will be announced on Friday [1]