One South Korean family saw their fortune swell past $800 million on paper — not from an IPO, not from real estate, not from crypto — but from a battery deal with Tesla. Less than two years later, the value of that contract was quietly revised down to just $7,386. Yes, from $2.9 billion to $7,386. A 99.9997% collapse. Behind the swing is L&F Co., a manufacturer of high-nickel cathode materials used in electric vehicle batteries. In February 2023, the company signed a supply agreement with Tesla and its ...

Core Insights - Tesla's stock price fell by 3.3% on the last trading day of 2025 due to news of a significant reduction in supply from a key supplier, L&F [1] - L&F's regulatory filing revealed that the value of the deal for high-nickel cathode materials has decreased to $7,386 million from a previous estimate of $2.9 billion [2] - The supply agreement between Tesla and L&F was originally signed in 2023, covering the period from January 2024 to December 2025 [3] Company and Industry Analysis - L&F did not provide reasons for the drastic cut in the deal's value, which is critical for Tesla's 4680 battery cells, aimed at enabling the production of a $25,000 EV [4] - The 4680 battery is also utilized in Tesla's Cybertruck, which has faced disappointing sales despite CEO Elon Musk's optimism [5] - The reduction in the supply deal value signals potential challenges for Tesla amid slowing growth in the overall EV market [5]

Core Insights - Tesla's stock has shown a year-to-date gain of 21.2%, closing at $459.64 on December 29, 2025, compared to approximately $379 at the beginning of the year [1][4] - A $1,000 investment at the start of 2025 would have appreciated to about $1,214 by year-end, reflecting a gain of approximately $214 [2] - The stock's performance in 2025 was characterized by early volatility followed by a strong rebound, driven by reassessment of demand trends and margin stabilization [4] Supply Chain and Cost Concerns - A significant reduction in the supply agreement value with South Korean battery materials supplier L&F, from $2.9 billion to just over $7 million, has raised concerns about battery supply risks [6][7] - China's new licensing rules on silver exports have introduced additional cost concerns, as silver is a critical input for Tesla's automotive electronics and solar components [8] Future Outlook - Tesla's 2025 performance indicates a combination of long-term upside potential and ongoing near-term volatility, with price movements likely to be influenced by supply-chain developments and input costs as 2026 begins [9]

Group 1 - Piper Sandler maintains a bullish outlook on Tesla, reaffirming an 'Overweight' rating and setting a price target of $400 per share, indicating a potential upside of about 17% from the last closing price of $342 [1] - Analyst Alexander Potter highlights Tesla's aggressive vertical integration strategy in its battery supply chain, distinguishing it from competitors [3][5] - Tesla is the only major automaker pursuing large-scale battery production independently of China, a strategic move amid global supply chain instability [4][6] Group 2 - Tesla's in-house production of 4680 battery cells shows minimal reliance on Chinese inputs, with plans to produce cathode active materials, refine lithium, manufacture anodes, and integrate these components into its electric vehicles [5] - Despite mixed sales performance in key markets, Piper Sandler views Tesla's strategy as a compelling long-term value proposition [5] - In May 2025, Tesla's new car sales in Spain dropped 29% year-over-year, while sales in Norway surged 213%, driven by strong demand for the Model Y [7][8] Group 3 - Tesla is regaining attention on Wall Street following CEO Elon Musk's return after a government role, with some recent challenges linked to his political views [9]

Core Insights - Tesla has achieved a significant milestone in battery innovation, claiming that its in-house production of 4680 battery cells is now more cost-effective than sourcing from external suppliers, making it the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh) among its supply chain partners [1][3] - This achievement is notable as Tesla is not solely a battery manufacturer, yet it has surpassed dedicated battery producers like Panasonic and LG Energy Solution in cost efficiency while managing multiple business lines [2] - Tesla has scaled its 4680 battery production significantly, reaching the milestone of producing 100 million cells as of last September, with the 4680 cell design offering high energy density and performance benefits [3] Industry Developments - Tesla is constructing its own lithium refinery in the United States, which is expected to further reduce costs and indicates a commitment to vertical integration and lowering EV costs through improved battery technology [4] - Other companies in the EV sector are also focusing on battery technology; BYD Co Ltd has leveraged its battery manufacturing expertise to support its EV business, producing lithium iron phosphate batteries with a vertically integrated production model [5] - General Motors is advancing its battery technology through joint ventures with LG Energy Solution, ensuring stable access to essential battery materials through supply deals for lithium, nickel, and cobalt [6] Tesla's Market Performance - Tesla's shares have declined approximately 42% year to date, compared to a 37.5% decline in the industry [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.82, which is above the industry average, and currently holds a Value Score of F [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tesla's earnings has been trending downward over the past 30 days [12]