50年超长期特别国债‘25特别国债03’
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50Y国债发行?一般谁买?
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-23 13:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - On May 23, the issuance of the first 50 - year ultra - long special treasury bond "25 Special Treasury Bond 03" this year had a weighted winning bid yield of 2.1%, 7.5BP higher than the 50 - year treasury bond's maturity yield on May 22, indicating weak institutional demand for ultra - long bonds and causing a general callback in bond yields [1][10]. - Insurance companies are the main net buyers of 50Y treasury bonds in the secondary market, with a net buying scale proportion of nearly 98% since 2022. Their net buying is mainly new bonds, but the new bond承接比例 has declined since 2024 [2][15]. - The slowdown in premium growth and the off - season for bond allocation may lead to weak demand for subscribing to new 50Y treasury bonds [4][23]. - In 2025, the issuance progress of ultra - long special treasury bonds is faster than last year, with 1.3 trillion scheduled to be issued from April to October. The issuance peak is expected from May to September, and the issuance of ultra - long ordinary treasury bonds will resume in November after the special ones finish in October [5][27][30]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Today 50Y Treasury Bond Issuance Rate Higher than Secondary - On May 23, "25 Special Treasury Bond 03" completed the issuance tender with a weighted winning bid yield of 2.1%, 7.5BP higher than the 50 - year treasury bond's maturity yield on May 22. After the tender result was announced, bond yields generally回调, with the yield of the 30y treasury bond's active bond rising nearly 1BP [1][10]. 2. Who Buys Ultra - Long - Term Treasury Bonds? - Insurance companies are the main net buyers in the secondary market, with a net buying scale proportion of nearly 98% since 2022. They mainly buy new bonds, with new and old bonds accounting for 74% and 26% respectively since 2022 [2][15][19]. - In months with large 50Y treasury bond issuances, insurance net buying increases significantly. The average monthly net buying in issuance and non - issuance months since 2022 is 109 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan respectively. However, in 2025, the new bond承接比例 has decreased, indicating weakened demand [3][19]. - The slowdown in insurance premium growth (2025 Q1 insurance personal insurance premium income had a year - on - year growth of only 0.2%, much lower than 2023 - 2024) and the off - season for bond allocation (May is the low point in the second - quarter net buying) may lead to weak demand for new 50Y treasury bonds [4][23]. 3. Ultra - Long Treasury Bond Issuance Enters an Acceleration Phase - In 2025, 1.3 trillion of ultra - long special treasury bonds are to be issued from April to October. Assuming uniform issuance, the 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year scales are expected to be 300 billion yuan, 850 billion yuan, and 150 billion yuan respectively [5][27]. - The issuance peak of ultra - long special treasury bonds is expected from May to September, with May, August, and September having a monthly scale of around 240 billion yuan, and June and July around 190 billion yuan. The issuance will wind down in October. The issuance pattern of alternating ultra - long ordinary and special treasury bonds continues, with ordinary ones resuming in November [5][27][30].