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储能的卖方市场:全线满产,一芯难求
经济观察报· 2026-03-28 07:21
Core Viewpoint - The energy storage industry is experiencing significant growth driven by domestic demand and overseas market expansion, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth [1][12]. Group 1: Industry Growth Indicators - In early 2026, the production of lithium batteries for energy storage increased by 84% year-on-year, with new installed capacity for energy storage reaching 24.18 GWh, a 472% increase [3]. - Major state-owned enterprises announced a combined procurement of 32 GWh of energy storage systems on the same day, indicating a strong demand in the industry [3]. - The production lines for 100Ah energy storage cells are fully booked, with demand outpacing supply since mid-2025, leading to a significant backlog of orders [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements for renewable energy projects in early 2025 has allowed energy storage systems to operate independently in the market, contributing to increased demand [9][10]. - The introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism for independent energy storage systems in January 2026 provides a stable income source, further encouraging investment in energy storage [9][10]. Group 3: International Market Dynamics - Chinese energy storage companies secured nearly 50 orders totaling over 33.5 GWh in overseas markets during January and February 2026, with Europe being the largest source of growth [13][14]. - Rising natural gas prices in Europe have made home solar and storage systems more economically attractive, driving demand for energy storage solutions [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - While the current demand for energy storage appears robust, concerns remain about whether this growth can be sustained, particularly regarding the profitability of independent energy storage stations [18][19]. - The industry is cautious about expanding production capacity, learning from past experiences where rapid expansion led to oversupply and price declines [22][23]. - Predictions for global energy storage installations in 2026 vary, but all forecasts suggest a year-on-year growth rate of at least 40% [24][25].