Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that the domestic power grid equipment market is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 15%, driven by significant changes in industry dynamics, particularly in domestic and international markets [1][2]. Market Size and Growth - The estimated total market size for domestic power grid equipment enterprises in 2026 is over 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15% [2]. - Breakdown of market segments includes: - Domestic grid (approximately 823 billion yuan, yoy +9%) [2]. - External grid (approximately 580 billion yuan, yoy +19%) [2]. - International market (approximately 665 billion yuan, yoy +20%) [2]. Industry Dynamics - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by stable growth and structural differentiation, with a focus on international expansion and main grid development as key drivers [2]. - The report highlights ten segments to track and assess market conditions, indicating a global upcycle in power equipment [2]. Segment Analysis - Main grid (high growth maintained): In 2026, the bidding for transmission and transformation equipment is expected to reach 91.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26% [3]. - Ultra-high voltage (bottoming out): Approval for new projects is expected to accelerate post-Q4 2025, with five new direct current lines anticipated in 2026 [3]. - Distribution network (upward turning point): Material bidding from January to November showed a year-on-year decrease of 4%, but prices for the second batch of regional joint procurement equipment have increased by 10% to 30% [3]. - Smart meters (downward trend slowing): Bidding for smart meters in 2025 is approximately 15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40%, but new standards in 2026 are expected to lead to price increases [3]. - Digitalization of the grid (bottoming out): Bidding for digital equipment in 2025 is expected to reach 4.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70% [3]. - Export opportunities for transformers and switchgear remain strong, with significant year-on-year growth in exports [3]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the transformer segment, which is expected to benefit from technological innovation and increased demand [4]. - Solid-state transformers (SST) are highlighted as a disruptive technology with significant commercial potential, expected to see validation in 2026 and commercialization in 2027 [5]. - Attention is drawn to the anticipated recovery in domestic investments under the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in ultra-high voltage policies and new smart meter standards [5].