Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on Greater China Technology Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Greater China Technology Semiconductors** industry, particularly in the context of **AI supply-chain updates** and **key opportunities in Asia** [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Recommendations**: - **Overweight (OW)**: TSMC (Top Pick), Aspeed, Alchip, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, Himax, ASMPT, AllRing [11] - **Memory Stocks**: Winbond (Top Pick), GWC, Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix [11] - **Underweight (EW/UW)**: MediaTek, UMC, ASMedia, Vanguard, WIN Semi [11] - **Market Dynamics**: - AI demand is expected to **reaccelerate** due to generative AI, impacting various verticals beyond the semiconductor industry [11]. - The **cannibalization effect** of AI on traditional semiconductor markets is noted, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the second half of 2025 [11]. - The **DeepSeek** technology is driving demand for AI inferencing, although concerns exist regarding the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [11]. - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - **Tech diffusion** and **tech deflation** are expected to stimulate demand for tech products, with a noted price elasticity effect [11]. Financial Metrics and Valuation Comparisons - **Valuation Metrics**: - TSMC's current price is **1,485.0 TWD** with a target of **1,688.0 TWD**, indicating a **14% upside** [12]. - UMC's current price is **44.9 TWD** with a target of **48.0 TWD**, indicating a **7% upside** [12]. - SMIC shows a significant downside with a target of **40.0 HKD**, representing a **-46% downside** [12]. - **Memory Sector Insights**: - Giga Device has a current price of **208.1 CNY** with a target of **255.0 CNY**, indicating a **23% upside** [12]. - Winbond's current price is **44.0 TWD** with a target of **50.0 TWD**, indicating a **14% upside** [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Trends**: - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a **prolonged downcycle** in mature node foundry and niche memory due to increased supply from China [11]. - The **historical correlation** between declining inventory days and rising semiconductor stock prices is highlighted, suggesting a potential positive outlook for the sector [11][68]. - **Future Projections**: - AI semiconductors are projected to account for approximately **34% of TSMC's revenue by 2027** [58]. - The **wafer demand** for TSMC's 2nm process is primarily driven by Apple, indicating strong customer reliance on TSMC for advanced technology [27]. - **Challenges**: - The **DDR4 shortage** is expected to persist into the second half of 2026, impacting supply dynamics [75]. - The **NAND flash market** is projected to face a double-digit percentage supply shortage, indicating ongoing supply chain challenges [75]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the investor presentation, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Greater China Technology Semiconductors industry.