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AI基建还能投多久?高盛:2-3年不是问题,回报窗口才刚开启
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-11 11:29
Core Viewpoint - The AI investment cycle is transitioning from "investment" to "returns," but this does not imply a slowdown is a peak. Goldman Sachs indicates that despite a deceleration in growth, AI infrastructure investment will remain sustainable over the next 2-3 years, with cost benefits already being realized and stock prices not yet reflecting this structural change [1][2]. Group 1: AI Investment and Returns - Goldman Sachs categorizes AI value creation into three phases: cost reduction through automation (current phase), reinvestment and rebuilding, and revenue generation through incremental income [2][3]. - AI applications in customer service, sales, and IT are already yielding tangible benefits, with 43% of call centers adopting AI tools and achieving an average operational cost reduction of 30% [2][3]. Group 2: Cost Savings and Future Projections - By 2030, AI automation could save Fortune 500 companies approximately $935 billion, representing about 14% of their total costs, with a net present value return of around $780 billion against a cumulative investment of $350 billion [3][4]. - Major cloud service providers are the primary investors in AI infrastructure, focusing on long-term revenue growth opportunities rather than short-term cost savings, complicating ROI calculations [3][4]. Group 3: Infrastructure Spending and Demand - Concerns about whether infrastructure spending has peaked, particularly regarding training chip inventory and demand, are considered overstated by Goldman Sachs [4][5]. - Large tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are expected to maintain their AI infrastructure investments without significantly compressing profit margins over the next 2-3 years [5][6]. Group 4: New Demand Drivers - Demand for "inference" computing from enterprise clients and government (sovereign AI) is emerging as a new spending driver, especially as small and medium enterprises rapidly expand their deployment of customized models or edge AI applications [6][7]. Group 5: Market Valuation and Stock Performance - The market has partially priced in strong demand expectations for Nvidia's next-generation GPUs, but there is still insufficient valuation for its expanding customer base and the potential explosion of AI inference business [8]. - Broadcom's stock price increase is attributed to clear guidance indicating AI revenue growth of 60% in FY25 and FY26, suggesting that the stock price rise reflects a clearer mid-term fundamental improvement path [8].
CoreWeave抢跑GB300商用部署,收购CoreScientific强化电力资源掌控
Haitong Securities International· 2025-07-11 06:26
wo[Table_Title] Research Report 11 Jul 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology CoreWeave 抢跑 GB300 商用部署,收购 Core Scientific 强化电力资源掌控 CoreWeave leads GB300 commercial deployment and strengthens power resource control through the acquisition of Core Scientific 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] 事件: 2025 年 7 月,CoreWeave 宣布成为全球首家商用部署 NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 平台的云厂商。本次部署采用整架集成 方案,由 Dell 提供 PowerEdge XE9712 预装服务器,Switch 提供高功率数据中心托管,Verti ...
摩根士丹利:6 月 GB200 NVL72 机柜情况
摩根· 2025-07-11 01:05
July 8, 2025 12:27 PM GMT Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific GB200 NVL72 racks in June We estimate that GB200 rack output increased slightly in June, to ~2.5k vs. 2-2.5k in May, leading total 2Q GB200 rack output to reach ~6k. We expect shipments to continue to increase in 3Q; they appear to be on track to reach 10-11k. Key Takeaways Quanta (2382.TW, OW): June revenue was ~NT$190bn (+18% m/m, +71% y/y). We attribute the m/m increase to: We estimate that Quanta's GB200 racks increased from ~400 ...
电力设备新能源2025年7月暨中期投资策略:光伏硅料行业有望加快产能整合,固态电池产业化持续推进
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-10 14:51
Group 1: Photovoltaic Silicon Material Industry - The photovoltaic silicon material industry is expected to accelerate capacity consolidation, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the solar industry [1] - By 2027, the industry is projected to enter a stable development phase, with significant advantages in the silicon material segment due to differences in capacity costs and financial strength among companies [1] - Key companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is witnessing continuous advancements, with equipment from Winbond Technology successfully delivered to major domestic clients [2] - Material production is ramping up, with significant capacity in oxide electrolytes and expectations for sulfide electrolytes to achieve ton-level shipments by 2025 [2] - Companies of interest in this sector include Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and others involved in the solid-state battery supply chain [2] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Development - The central government is promoting the orderly development of offshore wind power, with a focus on enhancing the marine economy and encouraging private investment [3] - Goldwind Technology has secured over 7.7GW of international orders for 2024, with significant revenue growth reported for its international subsidiary [3] - Key players in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, and Dajin Heavy Industry [3] Group 4: Data Center Investment - Global data center investments are accelerating, with Amazon planning to invest AUD 20 billion (approximately USD 13.1 billion) in Australia and SK Telecom collaborating with Amazon Web Services for a significant data center project in South Korea [4] - The deployment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI systems is underway, indicating a growing demand for AI computing resources [4] - Companies to monitor in the AIDC power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, and others [4] Group 5: Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, with Goldwind Technology rated "Outperform" and projected to have an EPS of 1.28 in 2025 [5] - Jinpan Technology and other companies also received "Outperform" ratings, indicating positive market sentiment [5] Group 6: Industry Performance Overview - The electric power equipment sector outperformed the market in June, with a 6.68% increase compared to a 2.5% rise in the CSI 300 index [13] - The sector's PE ratio at the end of June was 30.3, reflecting a slight recovery in valuations [13] - The report highlights that the electric power equipment industry has shown strong performance across various sub-sectors, including lithium battery materials and wind power [23]
周跟踪(20250616-20250620):MWC上海展示低轨卫星地面基建新机遇,AMDHelios机柜或使用更多光模块与铜缆
Shanxi Securities· 2025-07-10 10:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the telecommunications industry [1][42]. Core Insights - The MWC Shanghai showcased new opportunities in low-orbit satellite ground infrastructure, with AMD Helios cabinets potentially utilizing more optical modules and copper cables [2][5]. - CoreWeave has initiated the first batch of shipments for the GB300 NVL72 system, expected to significantly enhance AI computing capabilities, with a projected shipment of over one million units of GB200 by 2025 [5][16]. - Oracle has signed a substantial cloud computing agreement worth $30 billion, anticipated to contribute over $30 billion annually starting from the 2028 fiscal year, indicating strong demand for AI computing resources [6][17]. - The new leadership at China Star Network is expected to accelerate the construction and commercialization of low-orbit satellite internet, with a focus on market-oriented operations and ecosystem breakthroughs [7][18][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The telecommunications industry is experiencing a shift towards AI computing and satellite internet, driven by significant investments and technological advancements [5][6][7]. - The demand for AI computing is expected to remain robust, with a favorable outlook for the second half of the year and into the next [5][16]. Market Performance - The overall market showed mixed performance during the week of June 30 to July 6, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25% [9][20]. - The telecommunications sector saw a slight decline, with the Shenwan Communications Index down by 0.10% [9][20]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies in the overseas computing sector include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others [8][20]. - In the satellite internet space, companies such as Shanghai Huanxun and Xinke Mobile are highlighted for potential investment [8][20].
亚马逊(AMZN.US)开发专用冷却设备 应对AI时代GPU高能耗挑战
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 06:41
亚马逊(AMZN.US)周三表示,其云计算部门已开发出专门用于冷却下一代英伟达(NVDA.US)图形处理 器(GPU)的硬件设备——这些GPU被广泛用于人工智能相关的计算任务。英伟达的GPU为生成式人工智 能的爆发提供了强大动力,但它们消耗的能源极为庞大。这意味着,使用这些处理器的公司必须配备额 外的设备来进行冷却。 Dave Brown表示,客户现在可以通过名为P6e的计算实例使用这一AWS服务。这些新系统配合英伟达设 计的高密度计算硬件使用。英伟达的GB200 NVL72将72颗英伟达Blackwell GPU安装于单个机架中,并 通过互联方式协同工作,以训练和运行大型AI模型。 亚马逊此前已推出多种自主研发的基础设施硬件。该公司开发了用于通用计算和人工智能的定制芯片, 并设计了自有的存储服务器和网络路由器。通过运行自主硬件,亚马逊对第三方供应商的依赖减少,从 而有助于提高盈利能力。在第一季度,AWS交出了自2014年以来最佳运营利润率的成绩,该业务部门 也贡献了亚马逊的大部分净利润。 亚马逊曾考虑建设能够广泛部署液冷系统的数据中心,以充分发挥这些高功耗英伟达GPU的效能。但亚 马逊云服务(AWS)计算与 ...
AI产业跟踪:海外:德国TNG推出DeepSeek变体模型,DeepSWE开源AIagent
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-07-09 11:12
产业观察 [table_Header]2025.07.09 【 AI 产业跟踪 - 海 外 】 德 国 TNG 推 出 产业研究中心 [Table_Authors] | DeepSeek | 变体模型,DeepSWE | 开源 AIAgent | | 李嘉琪(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 摘要:产业最新趋势跟踪,点评产业最新风向 | | | | 021-38676666 | | [Table_Summary] | | | 登记编号 | S0880524040001 | | AI 行业资讯 | | | | | | 戴尔向 CoreWeave 交付首批英伟达 | GB300 NVL72 系统 | | | | | Meta 成立超级智能实验室 | | | | 刘峰(研究助理) | | 智 AI 应用资讯 | | | | | | | | | | 021-38676666 | | 为 商业版添 Meta WhatsApp AI | 功能 | | | | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880124060013 | | 亚马逊推出新 基础模型提升机器人性能 AI | ...
计算机行业周报:超节点:从单卡突破到集群重构-20250709
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-09 07:44
行 业 及 产 业 计算机 2025 年 07 月 09 日 相关研究 《从 CloudMatrix 看超节点趋势!3D 打 印产业强趋势!——计算机行业周报 20250616-20250620》 2025/06/21 《字节 FORCE 大会亮点!华为 HDC 2025 关注点!——计算机行业周报 20250609-20250613》 2025/06/14 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 李国盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹峥 A0230525040002 caozheng@swsresearch.com 崔航 A0230524080005 cuihang@ ...
电子行业周报:算力与端侧创新呈现共振行情,业绩期内电子有望延续强势-20250708
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-08 14:09
证券研究报告 | 2025年07月08日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 行业研究·行业周报 电子 服务器需求保持增长,看好企业级存储国产化增量机遇。近期部分服务器 OEM 及 Tier2 互联网厂商经过库存调整进入重建库存阶段,近期原厂相继启动新 季度价格谈判;根据 CFM 预测,在服务器需求推动下三季度预计 eSSD 合约 价有望上涨 5%至 10%。此外,阿里云将于马来西亚和菲律宾新增数据中心, 全球基础设施布局将扩展至 29 个地域、90 个可用区,其中马来西亚第三个 可用区已于 7 月 1 日正式上线,菲律宾第二个可用区则计划于今年 10 月启 用,企业级存储需求有望保持持续增长。随着下半年服务器补库及国内 CSP 厂商需求增长,国产企业级存储有望在收入端保持快速增长,建议关注相关 公司德明利、江波龙、佰维存储等。 CoreWeave 全球首家部署 GB300 服务器,戴尔抢先交付。当地时间 7 月 3 日, 超大规模云服务商 CoreWeave 宣布,已经收到了市场上首个基于英伟达最新 高端芯片的人工智能服务器系统 GB300 NVL72,由戴尔科技制造。CoreWeave ...
CoreWeave计划以90亿美元全股票交易收购Core Scientific
Huan Qiu Wang Zi Xun· 2025-07-08 03:17
来源:环球网 值得关注的是,CoreWeave上周刚获得英伟达GB300 NVL72系统首批交付,此次收购将使其直接掌控从 芯片到数据中心的完整供应链。 根据协议,Core Scientific股东将以每股20.40美元的价格(较6月25日收盘价溢价约66%)换取0.1235股 CoreWeave新发行的A类普通股。交易完成后,Core Scientific股东在合并后公司的持股比例将低于 10%。此次交易需经监管部门批准及股东同意,预计于2025年第四季度完成。 CoreWeave首席执行官迈克尔·因特拉托(Michael Intrator)表示,收购将帮助公司"垂直化"数据中心布 局,通过整合Core Scientific全美13个数据中心的1.3吉瓦总发电量(相当于一座核反应堆的产能),降 低单位算力成本; CoreWeave首席执行官迈克尔·因特拉托(Michael Intrator)表示,收购将帮助公司"垂直化"数据中心布 局,通过整合Core Scientific全美13个数据中心的1.3吉瓦总发电量(相当于一座核反应堆的产能),降 低单位算力成本; 【环球网科技综合报道】7月8日消息,据外媒报道 ...