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中信证券:未来一年中国权益资产正迎来年度级别牛市!核心资产怎么看?
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-06-23 02:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's equity assets are expected to enter a bull market starting from Q4 2025, with both fiscal and monetary policies expanding simultaneously across major global economies [1] - Market style is anticipated to shift significantly from small-cap stocks to core assets, marking a major change since 2021 [1] - The current market environment shows a lack of clear main themes, with various sectors like defense, pharmaceuticals, rare earths, and new consumption experiencing rotation [1] Group 2 - As of June 19, the CSI A500 index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.83, which is at a historical average level, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.51, indicating it is at a historical low of 18.98% [2] - Core assets are expected to show relative profitability advantages and strong operational resilience, with the CSI A500 index projected to achieve positive revenue growth ahead of the broader A-share market in 2025 [3] Group 3 - High-quality assets in China are actively seeking dual listings in both A and H shares, which may lead to a revaluation of these assets [6] - Recent listings like CATL and Hengrui Medicine have broken the trend of H shares being priced lower than A shares, leading to a premium for H shares [6] - The public fund reform is expected to drive institutional investors to focus more on core assets, enhancing the stability of core holdings [6] Group 4 - The CSI A500 index reflects the performance of 500 large-cap stocks across various industries, with 36% of its constituents being "specialized and innovative" enterprises, aligning with China's strategic industrial upgrade goals [7] - The A500 ETF has a significant market liquidity and has been a leader in trading volume since its launch, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, making it one of the lowest in its category [7]