Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) is included among the 14 Best Dividend Aristocrats to Invest in Heading into 2026. ADP Downgraded to Underperform as Jefferies Flags Structural Headwinds Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash On December 16, Jefferies analyst Samad Samana downgraded Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) to Underperform from Hold and cut the price target to $230 from $245. The firm said it “thinks highly” of management, but described the company’s fundamental outlook as “sh ...

Core Viewpoint - Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is a stable and reliable company in the payroll processing industry, recognized as a Dividend King due to its consistent dividend increases over 51 years, making it an attractive option for income-focused investors [2][6][15] Company Overview - ADP operates in a mission-critical sector, providing payroll and human capital management services that are essential for businesses, leading to high switching costs and customer loyalty [3][7] - The company reported a revenue increase of 7% year-over-year to $5.2 billion and adjusted earnings per share growth of 7% to $2.49 in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [8] Dividend Performance - In mid-November, ADP's board approved a quarterly dividend increase of $0.16 per share to $1.70, representing a 10% increase [5] - ADP's 51 consecutive years of dividend increases place it among a select group of Dividend Kings, highlighting its business durability [6] Growth Potential - ADP is implementing strategies to accelerate sales growth, including expanding within its existing customer base and attracting new customers through innovative channels [9][10] - The company is integrating payroll services into existing software platforms used by small businesses, reducing friction and enhancing distribution [10] - Management noted strong momentum for its ADP Lyric HCM platform, with new business bookings exceeding expectations [11] Financial Metrics - ADP has a market capitalization of $106 billion, a gross margin of 50.30%, and a dividend yield of 2.41% [13] - The company maintains a payout ratio of about 59%, indicating potential for future dividend growth alongside earnings momentum [13] Long-term Outlook - Management projects full-year fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share growth of 8% to 10% year-over-year, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for ADP [15]

Core Insights - ADP has integrated its 1-rated workforce management solution, ADP WorkForce Suite, into its leading payroll and HCM platforms, enhancing access for employers and employees across 140+ countries [1][8] - The integration aims to transform the global employer and employee experience by providing a unified time, pay, and HR experience with advanced workforce management tools [2][8] - ADP WorkForce Suite is designed to streamline operations, improve accuracy, and lower costs by connecting workforce management, HR, and payroll functions [3][6] Product Features - The suite offers global compliance capabilities, supporting various industries such as manufacturing, retail, healthcare, and education, ensuring accurate workforce management across different geographies [3][4] - Key functionalities include automated enforcement of labor rules, role-based dashboards, predictive analytics, and mobile access for remote workers [4][5] - The platform simplifies people operations and supports complex industries, catering to organizations of all sizes, from mid-sized companies to large enterprises [4][6] Market Position - ADP WorkForce Suite has been recognized as the market leader for 11 consecutive years by Nucleus Research and has received accolades for its measurable business impact [7] - The integration of WorkForce Software into ADP's platforms represents a significant shift in the market, allowing organizations to consolidate their HR technology stack without compromising on quality [8] - The solution is designed to reduce operational complexity and enhance the employee experience, aligning with the industry's trend towards unified HR solutions [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 7% revenue growth and a 7% adjusted EPS growth for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [5][16] - Employer Services segment revenue increased by 7% on a reported basis and 5% on an organic constant currency basis [16] - Client funds interest revenue increased more than anticipated, leading to an increase in the full-year forecast for client funds interest revenue by $10 million to a range of $1.30 billion to $1.32 billion [17][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Employer Services new business bookings showed solid growth, resulting in record sales volume for a first quarter [5] - PEO revenue growth of 7% exceeded expectations, driven by growth in zero margin pass-throughs and higher wages [7][18] - Employer Services pays per control growth rounded down to 0% for the first quarter, reflecting client caution around adding headcount [6][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall client satisfaction score reached a new all-time high for a first quarter, indicating improvements across business units [6] - The company experienced specific strength in ADP Lyric HCM, with new business bookings exceeding expectations [9][10] - International market performance was described as "lumpy," with a solid pipeline but some softness in the first quarter [68] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leading with best-in-class HCM technology, including the scaling of Embedded Payroll Solutions for small businesses [8][11] - Continued investment in AI initiatives aims to enhance operational efficiency and client engagement [12][14] - The acquisition of Pequity is expected to broaden the company's capabilities in compensation management, aligning with its strategic priorities [10][62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the relatively stable HCM demand backdrop and maintained full-year growth guidance of 4%-7% for Employer Services [16][24] - The company anticipates a slight decline in Employer Services retention but remains optimistic about achieving its growth targets [16][18] - Management highlighted the importance of ongoing investments in technology and client services to drive future growth [14][19] Other Important Information - The company announced the acquisition of Pequity, which is expected to enhance its compensation management offerings [10][62] - The company was recognized as a leader in multi-country payroll solutions, underscoring its global capabilities [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on deal cycles and time to close - Management indicated that the demand backdrop remains stable, with no significant changes observed in deal cycles during Q1 [24] Question: Confidence in Employer Services guidance amid slight downticks - Management expressed confidence in the guidance, noting that movements in pays per control and retention are relatively small and offsetting [26][28] Question: Surprising areas of new bookings growth - Management highlighted strong growth in small business services, particularly in retirement services and HR outsourcing [32] Question: Performance of PEO enrollment period - Management reported the highest participation rates in four years, indicating strong demand for health benefits among targeted industries [57] Question: Insights on the recent acquisition - Management emphasized the strategic importance of the acquisition for enhancing compensation management capabilities, although its financial impact is currently minimal [62][64] Question: Differences between U.S. and international markets - Management described international performance as "lumpy," with solid execution expected to drive growth in the future [68] Question: Impact of recent layoffs in the market - Management stated that recent layoffs are not expected to significantly impact guidance, as hiring levels remain static [99]

Financial Performance - Total revenues increased by 7% to $5.175 billion in Q1 Fiscal Year 2026[11], compared to $4.833 billion in Q1 Fiscal Year 2025[11] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 7% in Q1 Fiscal Year 2026[11] - Employer Services (ES) revenues increased by 7% to $3.491 billion in Q1 Fiscal Year 2026[15], compared to $3.261 billion in Q1 Fiscal Year 2025[15] - Professional Employer Organization (PEO) revenues increased by 7% to $1.688 billion in Q1 Fiscal Year 2026[24], compared to $1.575 billion in Q1 Fiscal Year 2025[24] Segment Highlights and Outlook - ES margin declined by 50 bps, primarily due to integration and acquisition-related expenses associated with WorkForce Software[16, 18] - The outlook for ES revenues is projected to grow by 5% to 6%[20] - The outlook for PEO revenues is projected to grow by 5% to 7%[28] - Average worksite employees (WSEs) in PEO increased by 2% to 754,000[29] Client Funds and Interest - Average client funds balances were $37.6 billion in Fiscal Year 2025[31] - Client Funds Interest Revenue is expected to be between $1.3 billion and $1.32 billion[31] - Net impact from Client Funds Extended Strategy is projected to be between $1.26 billion and $1.28 billion[31]

Core Insights - ADP's Lyric has been recognized as a Top HR Product of 2025 by HR Executive, highlighting its innovative approach to human capital management [1][6] - The award will be presented during the HR Icons Awards Evening at HR Tech 2025 on September 15, 2025 [1] Product Overview - The Top HR Products competition evaluates solutions based on innovation, value to HR functions, user experience, and integration capabilities [2] - Lyric is designed to support enterprise organizations with personalized guidance, global adaptability, and proactive insights through integrated AI and automation [3][6] Features and Benefits - ADP Lyric HCM offers a unified platform for HR, payroll, talent, and workforce management, tailored for borderless work environments [7] - Key features include ADP Assist for proactive insights, automated workflows to reduce administrative overhead, and flexible position management [6][7] Industry Context - The recognition of Lyric aligns with the industry's need for HR technologies that address current and future challenges, enabling HR leaders to be proactive and strategic [4] - HR Tech is a premier event showcasing innovative HR solutions, further establishing the importance of advancements in human resource management [9][10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an 8% revenue growth in Q4 2025 and a 7% revenue growth for the full year [5][18] - Adjusted EBIT margin expanded by 40 basis points in Q4 and 50 basis points for the full year [5][18] - Adjusted EPS grew by 8% in Q4 and 9% for the full year [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Employer Services (ES) revenue increased by 8% in Q4 and 7% for the full year, with margins expanding by 50 basis points in Q4 and 100 basis points for the year [18][19] - Professional Employer Organization (PEO) revenue grew by 7% in Q4 and for the full year, with average worksite employee growth of 3% [19][20] - PEO margins contracted by 20 basis points in Q4 and 60 basis points for the full year due to higher zero-margin pass-through benefits revenues [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved approximately $2.1 billion in new business bookings for employer services, representing a 3% growth [6][8] - The retention rate for employer services increased by 10 basis points to 92.1% for the year [8] - International bookings improved in Q4 but did not offset earlier softness in the fiscal year [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on accelerating employer services new business bookings growth in fiscal 2026, with a healthy pipeline and strong client satisfaction scores [8][12] - Investments in AI and proprietary tools are aimed at enhancing client experience and operational efficiency [12][13] - The company plans to expand its global payroll capabilities and enhance its offerings in markets like Japan and Saudi Arabia [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a dynamic and growing market with opportunities for innovation and client support [14][15] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, but the company believes it is well-positioned for solid financial results while continuing to invest in growth [20][25] - Management expects a slight moderation in the macroeconomic environment but remains confident in achieving revenue growth of 5% to 6% in fiscal 2026 [20][25] Other Important Information - The company will no longer provide point margin forecasts for its ES and PEO segments but will continue to share actual margin results each quarter [20] - Client funds interest revenue is expected to increase from $1.19 billion in fiscal 2025 to a range of $1.29 billion to $1.31 billion in fiscal 2026 [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you share more thoughts on the HRO softness? - Management noted that the softness in the domestic HRO business was due to complex opportunities with long sales cycles, which saw delayed decisions in Q4 [29][31] Question: What are the expectations for bookings growth? - Management expressed confidence in reaccelerating bookings growth due to product maturity and investments in sales headcount and technology [34][35] Question: How is pricing expected to contribute in fiscal 2026? - Pricing assumptions for fiscal 2026 are expected to be in the 100 basis points range, reflecting recent trends rather than pre-pandemic norms [44] Question: What are the early results from the workforce software integration? - Management reported strong receptivity and contributions from workforce software, with expectations for significant growth in multinational opportunities [48][49] Question: How does the company view the impact of partnerships on sales channel management? - Management believes partnerships enhance visibility and do not impede forecasting, providing more opportunities for client engagement [109][110]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an 8% revenue growth in Q4 2025 and a 7% revenue growth for the full fiscal year [5][18] - Adjusted EBIT margin expanded by 40 basis points in Q4 and 50 basis points for the full year [5][18] - Adjusted EPS grew by 8% in Q4 and 9% for the full year [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Employer Services (ES) revenue increased by 8% in Q4 and 7% for the full year, with margins expanding by 50 basis points in Q4 and 100 basis points for the year [18][19] - Professional Employer Organization (PEO) revenue grew by 7% in Q4 and for the full year, with average worksite employee growth of 3% [19][20] - PEO margins contracted by 20 basis points in Q4 and 60 basis points for the full year due to higher zero-margin pass-through benefits revenues [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved approximately $2.1 billion in new business bookings for employer services, representing a 3% growth [6] - Small business suite and domestic enterprise offerings saw solid bookings growth, while HR outsourcing experienced a softer finish [6][7] - International bookings improved in Q4 but did not offset earlier softness in the fiscal year [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on accelerating employer services new business bookings growth in fiscal 2026, with a healthy pipeline and strong client retention [7][11] - Investments in HCM technology, AI capabilities, and global payroll capabilities are key strategic priorities [10][11] - The company aims to leverage its extensive dataset to enhance product offerings and client experiences [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a dynamic and growing market with opportunities for innovation and client support [13][14] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, but the company is positioned to deliver solid financial results while investing for future growth [20][25] - Management expects a slight moderation in the macroeconomic environment but remains confident in achieving revenue growth of 5% to 6% in fiscal 2026 [20][25] Other Important Information - The company has made significant strides in client satisfaction, achieving record highs [7] - The acquisition of workforce software is expected to enhance capabilities and contribute to growth in multinational markets [10][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: Demand and HRO softness - Management noted that the softness in HR outsourcing was due to complex opportunities with long sales cycles, but the pipeline remains strong with active deals [28][31] Question: Confidence in bookings reacceleration - Management highlighted product maturity, investments in sales headcount, and technology as key factors for confidence in bookings growth [33][36] Question: Pricing contribution in fiscal 2026 - Pricing assumptions for fiscal 2026 are expected to be in the 100 basis points range, reflecting recent trends rather than pre-pandemic norms [45] Question: Retention performance - Retention results were broad-based, with no specific callouts, and management was pleased with the performance across all segments [46] Question: Workforce software integration - Early results from the integration of workforce software have exceeded expectations, contributing positively to bookings and sales [49][50] Question: PEO guidance and pass-through revenue - Higher expected contributions from zero-margin pass-through revenues are driven by medical health insurance inflation and state unemployment insurance costs [99] Question: Embedded payroll and Clover partnership - The partnership with Clover is progressing well, with expectations for broader deployment and contributions to bookings in fiscal 2026 [102][104] Question: Sales channel management and partnerships - Partnerships are enhancing visibility into results and pipelines, allowing for better forecasting and opportunity identification [110][111]

Financial Performance Highlights - Total revenues for fiscal year 2025 reached $20561 million, a 7% increase year-over-year[14] - Adjusted EBIT for fiscal year 2025 was $5347 million, a 9% increase year-over-year, with a margin expansion of 50 basis points[14] - Adjusted diluted EPS for fiscal year 2025 was $1001, a 9% increase year-over-year[14] - In Q4 2025, total revenues were $5127 million, an 8% increase year-over-year[10] - Q4 2025 adjusted diluted EPS was $226, an 8% increase year-over-year[10] Segment Results - Employer Services (ES) revenue grew by 7% for fiscal year 2025 and 8% for Q4 2025[8, 17] - ES retention rate was 921%[8] - Professional Employer Organization (PEO) revenue grew by 7% for both fiscal year 2025 and Q4 2025[8, 27] - Average worksite employees (WSEs) in PEO reached 761000, a 3% increase[34] Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook - The company anticipates total ADP revenue growth of 5% to 6%[36] - Adjusted EBIT margin is expected to increase by 50 to 70 basis points[36] - Adjusted diluted EPS is projected to grow by 8% to 10%[36] - Client Funds Interest Revenue is expected to be between $1290 million and $1310 million[36]

Summary of ADP's Investor Day Conference Company Overview - **Company**: ADP (Automatic Data Processing) - **Industry**: Human Capital Management (HCM) - **Fiscal Year 2024 Revenue**: Over $19 billion [7] - **Client Base**: 1.1 million clients, including 80% of Fortune 500 companies [7] - **Employee Payroll**: Over 42 million wage earners in more than 140 countries [7] - **Client Funds Movement**: Over $3.1 trillion annually in the U.S. [7] Core Points and Arguments Market Position and Growth - ADP is the world's largest HCM provider, emphasizing scale, dependability, and innovation as key differentiators [6][11] - The total addressable market for HCM exceeds $180 billion globally, with expected mid-single-digit growth [12] - ADP's market share has remained stable despite revenue growth, indicating significant room for expansion [13] Innovation and Technology - ADP is infusing AI into its operations to enhance product offerings and client experiences [3][20] - The company invested nearly $1.3 billion in R&D in fiscal 2024, focusing on AI as the next frontier [20] - ADP Assist, an AI-driven tool, has been recognized for its innovation and is being deployed across various functions [27] Strategic Priorities - **Best-in-Class HCM Technology**: Focus on developing innovative solutions and considering acquisitions to accelerate growth [21] - **Expertise in Outsourcing**: Providing unmatched client service across all client types [22] - **Global Scale**: Leveraging extensive data and partnerships to navigate the changing work environment [23] Client-Centric Approach - ADP emphasizes a client-first philosophy, with a commitment to understanding and addressing client needs [16] - Client satisfaction scores have increased by 40% over the past three years, reflecting strong revenue retention [29] Additional Important Insights Challenges in the HCM Industry - The industry faces challenges such as shifting demographics, rising healthcare costs, and a shrinking talent pool [15] - The regulatory landscape is continuously evolving, necessitating adaptive solutions [14] Product Portfolio and Differentiation - ADP's product offerings span from payroll to HR outsourcing, catering to businesses of all sizes [8][60] - The company is focused on creating a seamless user experience across its platforms, integrating various functionalities [61] Sales and Distribution Strategy - ADP has a large sales force of 8,500, with a significant portion of new business coming from partnerships [79][81] - The company aims to enhance sales productivity through AI tools and targeted marketing strategies [82][86] Future Outlook - ADP is optimistic about the HCM industry's growth potential and its ability to innovate and adapt to market changes [30] - The company plans to continue leveraging its scale and data to enhance product offerings and client experiences [31] Conclusion ADP's Investor Day highlighted the company's strong market position, commitment to innovation, and client-centric approach. With a focus on leveraging AI and expanding its global reach, ADP is well-positioned for future growth in the evolving HCM landscape.