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股市上的“中国AI威胁论”再起
日经中文网· 2025-09-01 08:20
Core Viewpoint - The development of new AI semiconductors by Alibaba Group has raised concerns about the potential erosion of the United States' dominance in the semiconductor industry, leading to declines in semiconductor-related stocks in both the U.S. and Japan [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On September 1, the Nikkei average index in Japan fell by 529 points (1.2%), with a peak decline of 800 points, attributed to fears surrounding Alibaba's new AI semiconductor [2]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) in the U.S. dropped by 3.1%, reflecting a broader trend of declining semiconductor stocks [4]. - Major Japanese companies like Advantest and Tokyo Electron saw significant stock price drops of 9.3% and 3.1%, respectively, contributing to a decline of approximately 290 points in the Nikkei index [4]. Group 2: Comparisons to Previous Events - Investors are reminded of the "DeepSeek Shock" from January, when news of a low-cost AI developed by a Chinese startup led to a 17% drop in NVIDIA's stock, erasing about $590 billion in market value [5]. - Following the announcement of Alibaba's AI semiconductor, Chinese tech stocks surged, with Alibaba's stock rising nearly 20% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by over 2% [5]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Impact - Some analysts express skepticism about the potential impact of Alibaba's semiconductor, suggesting that its performance may not match NVIDIA's high-performance chips, and that the effect on Japanese semiconductor stocks will be limited [6]. - Analysts note that Alibaba's semiconductor focuses on AI "inference" rather than the "training" aspect where NVIDIA excels, indicating that NVIDIA's market position is unlikely to be significantly threatened [6]. - September is historically a month of market declines, with upcoming key economic data and meetings expected to influence market sentiment [6].