电子行业开年观点汇报 20260223 摘要 国产算力正从硬件驱动转向模型和应用驱动，字节跳动等头部互联网公 司加大自研芯片投入，计划量产 AI 推理芯片，有望占据市场份额，信源 股份等公司受益于豆包大模型需求超预期。 海外 AI 热点集中在 OpenAI 项目，其数字员工模式深度嵌入工作流，推 动推理算力需求数量级跃升，利好 Minimax、智谱 GLM 等国产模型企 业级 API 调用量增长，对 AI 芯片及基础设施是重大利好。 各大互联网公司、服务器厂商及 GPU 公司发力研发国产超级计算机方案， Switch 芯片环节受益，建议关注盛科通信等独立第三方以太网 switch 芯片厂商，以及光模块、液冷散热、PCB 等细分赛道。 2026 年一、二季度，高密度光纤连接器和高功率连续激光芯片的新需 求将成为 A 股细分赛道价值重估的核心变量，英伟达新一代 AI 芯片的曝 光也将为 GPU 的发展指引新的增长方向。 英伟达最新旗舰产品 120.4T 交换机将推动高端 PCB、CCL 材料及上游 核心元件供应商发展，相关厂商如胜宏、生益、菲利华等有望受益， HVLP 铜箔和树脂供应商可能面临供不应求。 Q&A ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 103.01 CNY, compared to the current price of 77.43 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company aims to create a "Chinese version of TPU" to seize opportunities in AI inference, leveraging its subsidiaries to penetrate the AI consumer electronics market. The consumer segment is expected to realize its potential soon, while enterprise orders are rapidly increasing, indicating a broad future growth space [2][10]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.51 billion CNY, 16.07 billion CNY, and 19.54 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, respectively, with a focus on optimizing its revenue structure through both consumer and enterprise segments [10][17]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 506 million CNY in 2023 to 1.95 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.6% [4][17]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to improve from -383 million CNY in 2023 to -208 million CNY in 2027, indicating a reduction in losses over the forecast period [4][17]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to increase from 20.94% in 2024 to 29.84% in 2027, driven by improvements in both consumer and enterprise segments [19]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Consumer segment revenue is anticipated to grow at a rate of 20% to 21% from 2025 to 2027, reaching approximately 4.87 million CNY, 5.89 million CNY, and 7.07 million CNY, respectively [14][15]. - Enterprise segment revenue is expected to see significant growth, with projections of 99.49%, 50.23%, and 30.11% year-on-year increases from 2025 to 2027, resulting in revenues of 4.96 million CNY, 7.45 million CNY, and 9.69 million CNY [15][16]. - Industry segment revenue is forecasted to grow modestly at 2% annually, reaching 2.59 million CNY, 2.64 million CNY, and 2.69 million CNY from 2025 to 2027 [16]. Valuation Analysis - The report utilizes both PS and PB valuation methods, concluding a reasonable valuation of 369.62 billion CNY, corresponding to a target price of 103.01 CNY [21][22]. - The company is expected to maintain a PS ratio of 23 times by 2026, reflecting its growth potential in the AI inference chip market [21][22]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading player in the AI sector, focusing on AI inference chips and aiming to capitalize on the rapid growth of the AI market, which is projected to expand significantly in the coming years [25][44]. - The strategic acquisition of Qiancheng Technology is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in integrating AI technology with consumer electronics, thereby accelerating its market penetration [14][45].