Inference wins, narratives rotateSemis Rip While Software SinksMarkets are once again rallying on semiconductors, while software is being treated as yesterday's trade. Capital continues to crowd into compute, memory, and infrastructure names as visibility around AI capex remains strong. Software, by contrast, is acting like a funding source as investors rotate toward assets with clearer near-term demand signals.The takeaway is not that software is broken, but that timing matters. In this phase of the cycle, ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a constructive outlook on datacenter operators, indicating they can sustain profitability levels above historical norms, despite tempered AI demand expectations [5]. Core Insights - The global datacenter supply/demand model has been updated, indicating a loosening of supply constraints earlier than previously expected, with peak occupancy now forecasted for 2025 instead of 2026 [3][13]. - Occupancy rates are projected to remain above historical levels, with a gradual loosening expected from 2026 through 2027, stabilizing around average levels seen over the past 18 months [3][45]. - Demand growth forecasts have been adjusted, particularly for AI workloads, reflecting a more gradual pace of AI training demand and a net decrease in incremental demand over the next 18 months [12][15]. Supply and Demand Overview - The current global datacenter market capacity is estimated at approximately 63 GW, with a significant portion owned by hyperscaler and cloud providers [25]. - By 2030, the total datacenter capacity is expected to reach approximately 131 GW, translating to a 6-year CAGR of ~14% [35]. - The report highlights that the mix of datacenter workloads will shift further towards cloud workloads, with hyperscale and wholesale datacenters expected to comprise about 75% of the total by 2030 [35]. Demand Forecast - The global datacenter market demand is estimated to grow by ~50% to 86 GW by 2027, with AI workloads increasing to 27% of the overall market [15]. - AI workload demand is projected to grow at a 38% CAGR, while traditional corporate workloads are expected to grow at a modest 3% [20]. Supply Forecast - The report indicates that supply sufficiency is expected to decrease by an average of 3% in 2025, 7% in 2026, and 6% in 2027, with a long-term forecasted supply sufficiency of 86% by 2030 [13]. - The datacenter supply model reflects a historical increase of ~2 GW due to actual capacity increases and adjustments to historical supply tracking [12]. Power Demand and Sustainability - Datacenter power demand is projected to increase by ~160% by 2030 compared to 2023 levels, contributing approximately 1% CAGR to overall US power demand [75]. - The report anticipates that 40% of the datacenter power increase will be met with renewables, with the remaining 60% expected to be driven by natural gas generation [76]. Grid Investments - The report estimates that approximately $720 billion will be required for grid investments through 2030, primarily focused on distribution and transmission upgrades to support datacenter growth [68].