AU2508等期货合约

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广发期货日评-20250704
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 07:15
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro situation is improving, driving up risk appetite, but different varieties in various sectors show diverse trends and require corresponding investment strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Equity Index**: The hedging sector is strong, and the overall equity index is adjusting downward. The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center is moving up. Be cautious of chasing high [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: At the beginning of the month, the capital interest rate continued to decline, and the sentiment of treasury bond futures was strong, but the market temporarily lacked the impetus to break through the previous situation [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations again, suppressing the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut. The gold price fluctuates in the range of $3300 - 3400, and the silver price fluctuates in the range of $36 - 37 [3]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC disk shows a shock, and the EC08 main contract fluctuates in the range of 1800 - 2000 [3]. - **Steel and Black Metals**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. The black sentiment has improved, and the anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. The coal mine's resumption of production is expected to strengthen, and the spot is running strongly [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The copper price is difficult to weaken without the implementation of the 232 investigation. The high copper price restrains downstream procurement. The alumina has frequent ore - end disturbances, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Macroeconomic uncertainty and OPEC's production increase expectations drag down the disk center of gravity. Attention should be paid to the impact of summer demand changes on the market [3]. - **Chemicals**: The sentiment side is more dominant than the weak fundamentals. The supply - side optimization expectation drives the market, but there are also problems such as high valuation and weak demand expectations [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oils**: The overall trend of oils and fats is a narrow - range shock adjustment. The overseas sugar supply outlook is relatively loose, and the downstream cotton market remains weak [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The entry of secondary fattening and the reduction of group supply make the spot sentiment strong [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass and Rubber**: The market sentiment of glass has improved at the beginning of the month. The rubber price is boosted by the macro recovery and storage news, but the fundamental weakening is expected [3]. - **New Energy Materials**: The polycrystalline silicon has no further positive factors, and the lithium carbonate disk maintains a relatively strong trend under the influence of sentiment [3].