1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. Short - term callback space is limited, and it is bullish in the long - term. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - The rapeseed oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to trade policy changes and sufficient inventory [3]. - The palm oil price has a short - term adjustment demand due to factors such as price comparison pressure and potential production impacts in Indonesia [4]. - The soybean meal is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation, and the price is expected to be bullish in the long - term [3][4]. - The corn and corn starch prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [5]. - The soybean price is affected by new supply and market sentiment, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The peanut price is under pressure due to expected increased production and lower costs, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The live pig price is affected by policies and supply - demand, with a short - term fluctuating rebound and a long - term focus on capacity reduction [7]. - The egg price is at a low level, and the market expects terminal consumption improvement to drive a price rebound [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean 11, Soybean 2 09 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations; new domestic soybeans are on the market, supply increases | 3900 - 3930, 3640 - 3670 | 4145 - 4150, 3950 - 4000 | Fluctuation, Fluctuation adjustment | Light - position short - selling, Temporary observation | | | Peanut 11 | Expected production increase and cost reduction | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, sufficient inventory in the short - term, long - term positive outlook | 8230 - 8300 | 8800 - 9000 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Short - term supply increase | 9600 - 9610 | 10300 - 10343 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Palm 01 | Good export demand from the origin, concerns about Indonesian production | 9060 - 9074 | 9900 - 9990 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Reduce long positions | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, expected reduction in soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter | 2950 - 2980 | 3200 - 3250 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Light - position long - buying | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, weak consumption | 2500 - 2523 | 2698 - 2708 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Hold long positions | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Continuous release of imported corn, stable new - season expectations | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | Weak corn price, relatively loose spot market | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Live pig 11 | Feed price rebound, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 13500 - 13750, 14500 - 15000 | | Fluctuation rebound | Hold long positions | | | Egg 10 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak season expectation | 3000 - 3050 | 3300 - 3350 | Fluctuation to find the bottom | Observation | [11] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - delivery arbitrage, most varieties suggest waiting and seeing, while the soybean meal 3 - 5 spread recommends a positive spread operation with a target of 300 - 400. The live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 spreads suggest positive spreads at low prices [12][13]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread suggests short - biased operations, the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread suggests long - biased operations, and the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio recommends long - buying operations [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in the feed, livestock, and oil sectors [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oils from different origins and different shipping dates [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oils, and peanuts [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Lists the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, and operation rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Pig**: Provides daily and weekly data on live pig prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, etc. [20][22][23]. - **Egg**: Offers daily and weekly data on egg prices, production rates, inventory, and related prices [21][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Pigs and Eggs)**: Includes charts of main contract closing prices, spot prices, and other relevant data of live pigs and eggs [25][28][29][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers charts of Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, and domestic palm oil inventory, trading volume, etc. [37][40][44]. - **Soybean Oil**: Contains charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operation rates, inventory, etc. [47][48]. - **Peanut**: Shows charts of domestic peanut arrival, shipment, processing profits, and inventory [51][52]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Has charts of corn closing prices, spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profits [55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: Includes charts of corn starch closing prices, spot prices, operation rates, inventory, and processing profits [58][59]. - **Rapeseed**: Displays charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profits [60][63][65]. - **Soybean Meal**: Presents charts of US soybean growth rates, soybean and soybean meal inventory [67]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties [69][70]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities for various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, live pig, and egg [72][73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar** - The import of sugar syrups and premixes in China increased month - on - month in July but decreased year - on - year, with the gap narrowing. The main import items have shifted, and the import volume under the 2106.906 item has hit new highs. - Due to factors such as reduced syrup imports and slow sugar imports in the first half of the year, although domestic sugar production increased in the 2024/25 season, the supply and demand of domestic sugar were strong, and enterprise inventory pressure was not significant. - Since the third quarter, the import of overseas raw sugar has accelerated, increasing the pressure on the supply side from processed sugar, and the import of syrups and premixes has also rebounded. However, concerns about the new Brazilian sugar season have supported the prices of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3][4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp** - The spot pulp market has been weak recently, but the price of hardwood pulp has remained stable. Overseas pulp mill production cuts have provided some support, but the prices of downstream finished paper products have remained low. - The shipment volume of softwood pulp in June increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The shipment volume of hardwood pulp remained at a high level, and exports to China were still strong. There have been some news of hardwood pulp production cuts, but the short - term impact is limited. - The pulp and paper industry lacks policy support, demand improvement is limited, and the supply pressure of hardwood pulp remains. However, the price of softwood pulp is below the cost of mainstream countries, and the price of hardwood pulp is close to the marginal cost, so the overall valuation is not high, which may support prices to some extent [5]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton** - In the international market, there is a multi - empty game. The steady listing of cotton in South America and Australia and the US tariff policy have put pressure on the market, but factors such as the decline in the US planting area, the slow progress of Indian cotton planting, and the temporary cancellation of Indian import tariffs have provided potential support. The new - season global cotton has changed from a slight inventory increase last month to a slight inventory decrease, narrowing the downward space for prices. - In the domestic market, there is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The extension of Sino - US tariffs has provided some support, but the suppression on the consumption side still exists, limiting the upward space for prices [6]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Apple** - The current focus is on the end of the old - season apples and the realization of the new - season production. The end of the old - season is in line with expectations, and there are some differences in the preliminary production estimates of the new - season, but the range is limited. The opening prices of early - maturing apples have increased year - on - year, providing some support to the market, but the sustainability needs to be monitored. The price of the Apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Jujube** - On Wednesday, the agricultural product index fluctuated weakly, and the jujube futures price opened low and closed high. The price of the Jujube 2601 contract broke through the previous high and then fluctuated. Driven by the continuous reduction of spot inventory, the price of the 2509 contract also rose sharply, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts increased. - In August, the inventory of jujubes decreased at an accelerated pace, the enthusiasm of terminal replenishment improved, and the dried fruit consumption is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the production of new - season jujubes in August [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Futures** - Apple 2510: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The fundamental changes are limited. The performance of early - maturing apples provides some support, but the strength is limited. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 7400 - 7500 (support) and 8300 - 8400 (resistance) [16]. - Jujube 2601: Reduce long positions. The overall market sentiment is strong, and the jujube enters the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to price increases due to weather concerns. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the resistance range is 11500 - 12000 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. Concerns about Brazilian sugar supply are increasing, but the import pressure has been realized, and the upward movement of the futures price is under pressure. The support range is 5550 - 5570, and the resistance range is 5730 - 5750 [16]. - Pulp 2511: Temporarily wait and see. Softwood pulp prices are below the cost of mainstream producers, and there have been production cuts in hardwood pulp, which provides some short - term support. However, the weak finished paper market limits the upward space. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the resistance range is 5400 - 5450 [16]. - Cotton 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. There is a game between tight spot supply and weak consumption expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 13500 - 13600 (support) and 14200 - 14300 (resistance) [16]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of August 13, the inventory in apple cold storages in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,800 tons. As of August 14, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 461,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 378,000 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production, with a slight decrease estimated by Zhuochuang and a slight increase estimated by Mysteel [17]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area was stable. Storage merchants were eager to sell, while buyers were cautious. The price of early - maturing apples was stable at high levels for good - quality products, with large price differences for poor - quality products. In the sales area, the overall arrival volume increased, demand was stable, and prices remained stable [18][19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of August 15, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. The arrival volume in the sales area increased month - on - month. Driven by the downstream replenishment demand, the spot price showed a strong trend. The market trading atmosphere improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm for high - quality products increased [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In July 2025, China imported a total of 159,800 tons of sugar syrups and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons and a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons. The import volume under the 210690 item reached 114,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 30% and a new high. As of noon, the spot market price of sugar in Guangxi was around 5950 yuan/ton, and the price in the Kunming market decreased slightly [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Although the domestic spot and futures prices of softwood pulp rebounded last week, the import price remained stable. Domestic pulp and paper integrated producers purchased a large amount of softwood and hardwood pulp, pushing up the prices of these two pulp types. Most buyers postponed their purchases of imported softwood pulp, waiting for the August quotes from major suppliers. Canadian and Nordic NBSK prices remained at 680 - 700 US dollars/ton, and Brazilian producers were seeking to increase the price of South American hardwood pulp by 20 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: The cotton - picking progress in the main producing areas of Brazil continued to advance. As of August 15, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state reached 40.0%, a month - on - month increase of 13 percentage points but 17.0 percentage points behind the same period last year. As of August 19, the cumulative rainfall of the Indian southwest monsoon was 611.8, 1.8% higher than the long - term average. There was a high probability of heavy rainfall in many places. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export price decreased. The export volume and amount of cotton cloth also increased [26][27]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 decreased, while the closing price of Sugar 2601 increased [28]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of apples remained unchanged month - on - month, the prices of jujubes and sugar decreased, the price of pulp remained stable, and the price of cotton decreased slightly [32]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures [40][41][45]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - The 10 - 1 spread of apples was 126, a week - on - week decrease of 34 and a year - on - year decrease of 2, and it is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes was - 1070, a week - on - week decrease of 1075 and a year - on - year decrease of 190, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 9 - 1 spread of sugar was 51, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 280, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton was 15, a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 30, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for all [47]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description of the futures positioning situation, only references to relevant figures [54][57][61]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no change week - on - week and year - on - year. - The number of jujube warehouse receipts was 9832, a week - on - week increase of 337 and a year - on - year increase of 477. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16244, a week - on - week decrease of 242 and a year - on - year increase of 889. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 252639, a week - on - week decrease of 1213 and a year - on - year decrease of 228502. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 7455, a week - on - week decrease of 141 and a year - on - year decrease of 2328 [76]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures [78][80][81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sixth round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, with marginal profit improvement for coke enterprises. The average daily pig iron output this week was 240,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340 tons, providing certain rigid demand support for raw materials. However, with the approaching of major events in September, there are expectations of production restrictions in Shandong, Hebei and other places, and downstream procurement enthusiasm may continue to decline. - Domestic supply is constantly disturbed, coal mine inventories are still at a low level, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It is expected that the short - term futures market will still have support [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal in the domestic market first rose and then fell this week. On the 14th, steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other places raised the tender price for coke procurement, which was the sixth round of price increases. The increases were 50 yuan/ton for tamped wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamped dry - quenched coke, 70 yuan/ton for top - charged wet - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - From August 12th, China and the US continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. - On August 15th, US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting in Alaska, discussing issues such as the Ukraine issue and Russia - US relations, but no agreement was reached. - Nine departments issued the Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities, with an annual interest subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point for a maximum of 1 year. - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. In July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 2.84238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%, and the new RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan (the first negative growth since July 2005). - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily - output increase of 4.7% month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a daily - output increase of 3.2% month - on - month; 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a daily - output decrease of 4.1% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.33 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%; and the daily output of steel was 4.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [6][7][8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi returned to the production - increasing rhythm this week, but due to underground conditions and the implementation of the "276 - working - day" policy, the overall production increase in Shanxi was slow. Some coal mines in Shaanxi stopped production due to moving faces, resulting in a significant decline in output. - Demand side: The sixth round of price increases for coke was fully implemented this week. The average daily pig iron output was 240,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340 tons, providing certain rigid demand support for raw materials. However, with the approaching of major events in September, there are expectations of production restrictions in Shandong, Hebei and other places, and downstream procurement enthusiasm may continue to decline [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply side: Some coal mines resumed production this week, but some reduced production due to various factors. Overall supply recovery was slow. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 1,024 vehicles due to system adjustments, and the impact has now been basically eliminated. - Demand side: Coke production increased slightly, and the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises slowed down after restocking. Coal mine inventories in some areas began to accumulate, but overall inventories decreased slightly due to pre - sales. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profits, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market showed strong performance from August 4th - 8th, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. Despite potential short - term adjustments, confidence in hitting new highs within the year should be maintained [3]. - Different varieties have different price trends and investment suggestions. For example, aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation, while lithium carbonate prices may be volatile due to the uncertainty of mine production [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Options - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this week, with daily trading volume above 1.5 trillion. Different index options have different performance in terms of K - line indicators, basis, trading volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on relevant varieties, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to bet on volatility [2]. Stock Index - From August 4th - 8th, the market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.11% on the weekly K - line. Looking ahead to August 11th - 15th, economic data releases and mid - year report disclosures may affect market sentiment. Investment should focus on IF and IM, and look for low - buying opportunities in IC [3]. Aluminum - Macroeconomic factors such as domestic export growth, US tariff policies, and Fed personnel changes are at play. Fundamentally, supply increases and the off - season of consumption lead to a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. Aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot prices are 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, and futures prices have fallen. Due to the uncertainty of the production status of the Jianxiawo lithium mine, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. If the mine shuts down, the price center may rise significantly. Investment strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - This week, coal production and inventory decreased. Supply disruptions are still expected, but downstream acceptance of high prices has declined. Coke has started the sixth round of price increases, and prices are expected to remain relatively strong and fluctuate at high levels [4]. Urea - The current daily production is high, and supply pressure is expected to increase in August. Demand from agricultural top - dressing has ended, and compound fertilizer production has inventory pressure. Futures prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, with support around 1,700 yuan/ton [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The production of the five major steel products increased while demand decreased, and inventory growth slightly expanded. Steel prices are expected to have limited downward space and still have upward drivers [4]. Eggs - Last week, egg spot prices fell and then stabilized. This week, the strategy is to short on rebounds [5]. Pigs - Last week, pig spot prices fell. Supply is sufficient but demand is weak, and prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term. Futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with a range - bound trend [5]. Sugar - Domestic and international sugar prices have declined. With the expected shutdown of some northern sugar refineries and potential shortages in Brazilian shipments and domestic arrivals, the 01 contract may repair some of the discount [5]. Cotton - Cotton prices have declined. In the short term, there may be a small technical rebound, with support at 13,350 yuan/ton. The market has a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in 2025, and demand is under pressure [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal demand for lead during the peak season is not evident, and domestic inventories have not started to decline. However, the battery and terminal industries are in the transition phase between the off - season and peak season. Although the terminal consumption has not fully recovered, the seasonal stocking demand in the electric bicycle sector has laid the foundation for the traditional peak season in August. Therefore, it is advisable to gradually attempt to buy on dips for hedging, with the hedging purchase range between 16,000 yuan/ton and 16,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.86/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead scrap - refined spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,133 lots, a decrease of 6,065 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 72,083 lots, an increase of 753 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,755 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the same period last week. As of August 5, the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The SMM1 lead price dropped by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers offered discounts of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or 100 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with some offering a 120 - yuan/ton discount. In Hunan, smelters offered at par with the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In Jiangxi, suppliers offered a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. Due to the weakening of lead prices, downstream buyers were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and the trading volume in some regions improved compared to the previous day [2]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：中国四季度庞大采购缺口是市场核心矛盾。未来仍需关注四季度采购方向及采购节奏。南北美 出口的激烈博弈，将显著影响贴水价格和期货远月合约。国内进口大豆的远期采购成本攀升，继续从原料 端对豆粕价格构成支撑。短期豆粕期价受到市场情绪的扰动影响较大，随着市场情绪整体回暖，豆粕期价 止跌回稳，短期或转为震荡运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of propylene is expected to increase, with the restart of Tianjin Bohua's PDH unit in early August and the expected release of new production capacity. The demand has staged support due to the restart of some polypropylene and octanol plants, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season. The rebound in oil prices provides short - term cost support, but prices are mainly under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances [1][2] Summary by Directory Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene prices are in a low - level weak oscillation, showing a negative basis pattern [14] Propylene Monthly Output - In July, China's propylene plant output reached 5.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,400 tons (2.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 13.0%. The output remains at a high level in the same period [22] Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The profits of propylene production by different processes decreased month - on - month. The production profit of PDH - made propylene was in the red, and the loss of methanol - to - propylene profitability deepened. In July, the overall propylene capacity utilization rate was 71.6%, with a narrow month - on - month fluctuation [24] Propylene Outer - Market Spread and Import - Export - In June, China's propylene imports increased month - on - month, driven by imports from Japan, South Korea, and increased supply from Southeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are still the traditional major import sources. In June, China's propylene imports were 253,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.0669 million tons [39] Propylene Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The overall downstream operating rate increased limitedly. End - users mainly purchased at low prices, and demand resilience was still insufficient. The restart of some polypropylene and octanol plants provided staged demand support, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season. In terms of downstream profits, the profit of the propylene oxide industry rebounded significantly, while the profit of the n - butanol industry decreased month - on - month [53] Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory in factories continued to rise, being higher year - on - year. The inventory of PP powder, the main downstream consumer, declined from a high level [75]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Previously, the urea market was affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity, with positive sentiment. However, the market sentiment declined, and the macro - atmosphere changed, leading to a decline in the urea futures market. - Urea production is at a high level, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is in the off - season. There are no bright spots on the demand side. - The company's inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Urea exports are restricted, and the overall port inventory has changed little [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1738 yuan/ton (- 65). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1790 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (- 10). The Shandong basis was 42 yuan/ton (+ 55), the Henan basis was 52 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the Jiangsu basis was 62 yuan/ton (+ 55) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.59% (0.08%). Newly added urea production devices are gradually put into operation, and the output remains high [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of July 28, 2025, the urea production profit was 250 yuan/ton (- 10). The overall operating rate of urea is at a high level [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of July 28, 2025, the urea export profit was 1037 yuan/ton (- 46). Urea exports are restricted, and the second batch of export quotas is progressing slowly [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 28, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58% (+ 1.03%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.20% (+ 0.96%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.12). Agricultural demand is ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production has been slow to increase [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 85.88 million tons (- 3.67), and the port sample inventory was 54.30 million tons (+ 0.20). The enterprise inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector in the early stage was the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such plants accounted for 16% in pure benzene and 6% in styrene, especially in BZ. However, with the decline in coking coal prices, the atmosphere in the chemical sector weakened, leading to price corrections in BZ and EB. - At the beginning of the week, BZ port inventory continued to consolidate without further accumulation. The short - term downstream demand for BZ was acceptable, but port inventory pressure and the pressure of shipments from South Korea to China still existed. - For styrene, port inventory continued to rise at the beginning of the week, with the inventory accumulation rate unchanged. The EB port basis remained weak, and the inter - period spread continued to weaken. The domestic EB operation rate was still at a relatively high level. The operation rates of the three major hard plastics increased, the PS inventory pressure continued to ease, while ABS still had inventory pressure. The fundamentals of styrene were weaker than those of pure benzene [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene was - 221 yuan/ton (+71), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 was - 70 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene was 12 yuan/ton (+59 yuan/ton), and the EB port basis remained weak with the inter - period spread continuing to weaken [2][3]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee was 185 dollars/ton (+10 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee was 170 dollars/ton (+9 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread was 106.0 dollars/ton (-13.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, and adipic acid changed, with caprolactam at - 1830 yuan/ton (+165), phenol - acetone at - 667 yuan/ton (+25), and adipic acid at - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit was - 168 yuan/ton (-122 yuan/ton) and was expected to gradually compress. The production profits of downstream hard plastics EPS, PS, and ABS increased, with EPS at 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton), PS at - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton), and ABS at 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton) [2]. 3. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory was 17.00 tons (-0.10 tons), and the operation rate information was not clearly summarized in the given text [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory was 164,000 tons (+13,300 tons), the East China commercial inventory was 67,500 tons (+11,300 tons), and the operation rate was 78.8% (+0.5%) [2]. 4. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The operation rate was 55.21% (+2.02%), and the production profit was 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton). - PS: The operation rate was 51.60% (+1.00%), and the production profit was - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton). - ABS: The operation rate was 66.82% (+0.92%), and the production profit was 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton). The downstream operation was at a seasonal low [2]. 5. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operation rate was 90.90% (-0.83%), and the production profit was - 1830 yuan/ton (+165). - Phenol: The operation rate was 78.00% (-3.00%), and the production profit of phenol - acetone was - 667 yuan/ton (+25). - Aniline: The operation rate was 73.66% (+0.77%), and the production profit was - 113 yuan/ton (-16). - Adipic acid: The operation rate was 64.80% (+0.00%), and the production profit was - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both pure benzene and styrene. - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods and distant - end BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high; conduct reverse arbitrage for the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread. - Cross - variety: Short the EB - BZ spread when the spread is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fundamentals for the main 2510 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) suggest a strategy of short - selling at high prices. Hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread and reduce positions and take profit on the 10 - 02 reverse spread. The market may experience a phased decline and return to rationality, with the trading perspective likely to focus more on the industry's own fundamental logic. Additionally, pay attention to the short - term emotional impact of China - US tariff negotiations on the market next week [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - In the past week, the container shipping index (European Line) oscillated at a high level. The main 2510 contract closed at 1527.5 points; the secondary main 2512 contract closed at 1720.2 points, and the 10 - 12 spread was reported at - 193 points [6] - For the futures contracts, EC2508 closed at 2,212.6 with a daily decline of 0.80%, EC2510 at 1,527.5 with a daily decline of 2.71%, and EC2512 at 1,720.2 with a daily decline of 1.56% [1] 3.2 Freight Rates - In the spot freight market, in early August, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU, while Maersk's opening price drops by $100 - 200/FEU, and the average quote of the PA Alliance drops to around $3100/FEU. The freight rate has peaked in early August, with the average static quote in week 32 around $3360/FEU. Observe the rate of decline in the second half of August [7] - SCFIS: The European route was at 2,400.50 points with a weekly decline of 0.9%, and the US West route was at 1,301.81 points with a weekly increase of 2.8%. SCFI: The European route was at $2,090/TEU with a bi - weekly increase of 0.5%, and the US West route was at $2,067/FEU with a bi - weekly decline of 3.5% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In August, the number of blank sailings increased by 1, but due to MSC's replacement of small ships with large ones, the overall market capacity remained stable at around 321,000 TEU/week. In September, the number of blank sailings remained at 2, and the number of pending voyages decreased from 7 to 4. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity in September was revised up to 314,000 TEU/week, slightly lower than August's 321,000 TEU/week but higher than July's 301,000 TEU/week [8] - **Demand**: It is expected that the cargo volume in early August (weeks 31 and 32) will remain resilient, with Christmas orders likely to be shipped by early August. There is a high probability that the inflection point of market cargo volume will occur in mid - to - late August. Observe the timing of the inflection point and the rate of decline [8] 3.4 Macro News - The Houthi rebels have upgraded their maritime blockade and will attack all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israel. - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [5]