化工日报 | 2025-11-19 煤价大幅下跌，EG基差继续走弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3907元/吨（较前一交易日变动-31元/吨，幅度-0.79%），EG华东市场现货价 3955元/吨（较前一交易日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.50%），EG华东现货基差30元/吨（环比-12元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-56美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-974 元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+7.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数17万吨，副 港到港量4.7万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副港到港量2.8万吨，整体中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升。需求端，近期随着降温，聚酯下游适 度好转，但聚酯负荷提升有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market currently has both support and pressure. There is a continuous supply of new cotton, but yarn mills are actively restocking. In the long - term, policies and weather will be the key factors. The recommended strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to lay out long positions for distant contracts when prices are low [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - On November 6, CF01 was 13605, down 10 (-0.07%) from November 5; CF05 was 13615, down 5 (-0.04%); CF01 - 05 was -10, down 5 from the previous day [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - On November 6, the prices in Xinjiang, Henan, and Shandong were 14618, 14852, and 14869 respectively, with decreases of -9 (-0.06%), -4 (-0.03%), and -4 (-0.03%) compared to November 5. The Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1013, up 1 [3]. Domestic Yarn Futures - On November 6, CY was 19870, up 50 (0.25%) from November 5 [3]. Domestic Yarn Spot - On November 6, the C32S price index was 20520, unchanged from November 5 [3]. US Cotton Spot - On November 6, CT (USD/磅) was unchanged at 65.07, the arrival price was 75.20, the 1% quota delivery price was 13158, and the sliding - duty delivery price was 14069, all unchanged from November 5 [3]. Spread Data - On November 6, the yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6265, up 60 from November 5; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 911, unchanged [3]. Other Data - The domestic - foreign spot spread was 1711 on November 6, down 4 from November 5 [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View - The cotton market currently has support below and pressure above. There is a continuous supply of new cotton, but yarn mills are actively replenishing their stocks. In the long - term, policies and weather are the key factors. The recommended strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to lay out long positions for distant - month contracts when prices are low [4]. 3. Data Summary Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 4 was 13535, down 65 (-0.48%) from November 3; CF05 was 13555, down 60 (-0.44%); CF01 - 05 was -20, down 5 from the previous day [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang, the price on November 4 was 14640, down 16 (-0.11%); in Henan, it was 14890, down 18 (-0.12%); in Shandong, it was 14873, down 19 (-0.13%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1105, up 49 [3]. Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures (CY) on November 4 was 19795, down 125 (-0.63%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index remained unchanged at 20520 [3]. US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 66 (USD/磅), unchanged; the arrival price was 75.50, up 0.2 (0.27%); 1% quota delivery price was 13209, up 34 (0.26%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 14098, up 11 (0.08%) [3]. Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6260, down 60; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 889, down 23; the spot internal - external spread was 1664, down 53 [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 short the spread when the price difference is high; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of propylene is continuously abundant due to the restart of the PDH unit of Lihuayi Weiyuan and the increased load of previously restarted units, and the overall propylene start - up rate has increased. The demand side is mainly rigid demand, and there is no obvious improvement. The cost support of propylene has weakened as crude oil and propane prices are weak. The current supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remain loose, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the cost side and the start - up and shutdown status of PDH units [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 6078 yuan/ton (- 127), the spot price in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (- 60), the spot price in North China is 5940 yuan/ton (- 45), the basis in East China is - 78 yuan/ton (+ 67), the basis in North China is - 138 yuan/ton (+ 9). The operating rate is 75% (+ 1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 174 US dollars/ton (- 3), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 97 US dollars/ton (- 1), the import profit is - 265 yuan/ton (- 14), and the in - plant inventory is 46260 tons (+ 4770) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 43% (+ 2.00%), and the production profit is 40 yuan/ton (+ 45); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 69% (+ 1%), and the production profit is - 488 yuan/ton (- 68); the operating rate of n - butanol is 84% (- 2%), and the production profit is - 45 yuan/ton (+ 28); the operating rate of octanol is 89% (+ 1%), and the production profit is - 349 yuan/ton (+ 32); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 67% (- 7%), and the production profit is 765 yuan/ton (+ 18); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 79% (+ 0%), and the production profit is - 347 yuan/ton (+ 47); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 78% (+ 0%), and the production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: The restart of the PDH unit of Lihuayi Weiyuan and the increased load of previously restarted units have led to an increase in the operating rate of PDH units and the overall propylene operating rate. The supply of propylene is continuously abundant. Attention should be paid to the external procurement demand brought by the shutdown of Binhua's 600,000 - ton PDH unit [2] - **Demand side**: The price of propylene has weakened, and downstream replenishment is cautious, mainly with rigid demand. The overall downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of PP powder has increased significantly due to the commissioning of the third - phase PP powder unit of Zhongjing. The operating rate of acrylic acid has decreased significantly due to short - term maintenance of some units and load reduction of others. The operating rate of propylene oxide has increased slightly [2] - **Cost side**: Crude oil has started to decline with the expected increase in production by OPEC +, and the official price of Saudi CP propane has continued to fall to 475 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous month. The cost support of propylene has weakened [2] 3.3 Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 short the spread when the price difference is high; Inter - variety: None [3] 3.4 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11] 3.5 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes figures such as the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [17][19][24] 3.6 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes figures such as the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] 3.7 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][46] 3.8 Propylene Inventory - The report includes figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil futures price oscillated downward this week. With sufficient supply and weak expectations due to increased palm oil production in Malaysia and ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations, short - term upward drivers are lacking. It is advisable to wait and see, with support at 8100 - 8130 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - The rapeseed oil futures price had a weak adjustment. Although supply is tight, there is substitution pressure from soybean oil and palm oil. It may oscillate in the short - term and is bullish in the long - term. Aggressive strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization, with support at 9690 - 9710 and resistance at 9980 - 10000 [3]. - The palm oil futures price oscillated downward due to continuous production increases in Malaysia. As the production season is approaching, short - selling is not advisable. It may test the support at 9000 - 9050, with resistance at 9350 - 9400. Temporarily wait and see and monitor Sino - US trade negotiations [4]. - The soybean meal price followed the rise of US soybeans. With sufficient domestic inventory, it has limited downward drivers. Consider waiting and see, with support at 2800 - 2830 yuan/ton and resistance at 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton [4]. - The rapeseed meal futures price oscillated. Due to weak demand and improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it has been weak. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract of the rapeseed oil - meal ratio, with support at 2250 - 2270 and resistance at 2380 - 2400 [4][5]. - The soybean No. 1 price was firm. With new - season soybeans on the market and strong demand for high - protein soybeans, look for long - buying opportunities, with support at 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton and resistance at 4150 - 4200 yuan/ton [5]. - The peanut spot price was stable. With increased planting area and potential Sino - US trade impacts, it may oscillate in the short - term. Cautious investors can hold reverse spreads, with support at 7900 - 7550 and resistance at 8020 - 8160 [5]. - The corn and corn starch futures prices continued to oscillate. Given the harvest situation and market dynamics, short - term upward space is limited. Consider reducing short positions on dips or looking for 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [6]. - The live pig spot price was strong. With prices below the cost and production - reduction policies, the futures price hit a new low. Cautious investors can hold reverse spreads, and aggressive investors can buy the 2607 contract below the cost [7]. - The egg spot price was stable and slightly strong. With expected consumption improvement in November and potential capacity reduction, aggressive investors can buy the 2512 contract on dips, and avoid short - selling blindly [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Various products in the feed, breeding, and oil industries are expected to oscillate, with different supply - demand logics. Most products are recommended for temporary waiting and watching, while some have specific trading strategies such as reducing short positions on dips or long - buying on dips [11]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The table shows the spot prices, price changes, basis of the main contracts, and basis changes of different products in various sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and breeding [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It provides import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [16]. 3.2.2 Feed - The table presents weekly data on corn and corn starch, including deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operating rates, and inventory of starch enterprises [17]. 3.2.3 Breeding - **Live Pigs**: It shows key weekly data on the live pig market, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, etc. [18]. - **Eggs**: It presents weekly key data on the egg market, including supply - side data (laying rate, culling data), demand - side data (inventory), and profit - related data [19]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End (Live Pigs, Eggs)**: It includes charts of the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices and chicken - culling prices [21][23][24]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: It shows charts related to Malaysian palm oil production, inventory, export, import, and domestic inventory and trading [31][32][35]. - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil mill operating rates, and inventory [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: It presents charts of peanut arrival, shipment, pressing profit, and inventory [45][47]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn spot prices, futures prices, basis, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [49][51][53]. - **Corn Starch**: It shows charts of corn starch spot prices, futures prices, basis, operating rates, and inventory [57][59][60]. - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and pressing profit [62][63][66]. - **Soybean Meal**: It presents charts of US soybean growth rates and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory [71][73]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It includes charts of historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as options trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios of corn [76][80][81]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It shows charts of warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [87][90][91].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Recently, due to more unplanned PP maintenance, the supply recovery pace has slowed; PE maintenance has gradually peaked, and there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand has improved, downstream开工率 has risen, and both inventories are decreasing. The cost side provides strong support, and the weighted profits of PP and PE have narrowed again. In the short - term, driven by macro warming, stronger costs, and expected production cuts due to sanctions, PP and PE have rebounded from low levels. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract will have less new production in the future, and long - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [2]. Pure Benzene - Recently, with the restart of some pure benzene plants and the expected new production capacity, domestic supply remains abundant. Most downstream products of pure benzene are in loss, and some secondary downstream products have high inventories. There are more shutdowns and planned maintenance of styrene plants, so demand support is limited. The inventory in East China ports has increased slightly, and the supply pressure has risen. The overall supply - demand outlook is still loose, and price drivers are limited. In the short - term, BZ2603 itself has weak drivers and fluctuates with oil prices and styrene [3]. Styrene - Under the dual pressure of inventory and industry profits, there are more shutdowns and maintenance of styrene plants. Although two new plants have been put into operation, the overall supply pressure still exists. Demand support is limited due to economic conditions and high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound of styrene is expected to face pressure. EB12 price rebounds should be treated as short - selling opportunities [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Recently, due to unplanned maintenance or load reduction of some PX plants, supply has shrunk compared to expectations. Demand has increased with a new PTA plant's planned operation and improved terminal orders. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation has improved. However, due to the overall weak expectations of oil prices and PX supply - demand, the rebound space is limited. Short - term long positions should be closed at high levels, and short - selling opportunities can be considered when Brent oil exceeds $65 per barrel [4]. - **PTA**: With the recovery of some PTA plant loads and the upcoming operation of new plants, the spot basis is generally weak. But due to improved terminal orders, downstream polyester sales have increased, and the basis has been repaired. In the short - term, the price has been boosted by stronger oil prices and improved PX supply - demand expectations, but the rebound space is limited. TA short - term long positions should be closed when chasing high, and short - selling opportunities can be considered. TA1 - 5 can be treated as a rolling reverse spread [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Recently, due to maintenance of some plants and port closures, the inventory is expected to decrease slightly next week. Cost - side oil and coal prices are strong, driving MEG to rebound. However, the long - term supply structure is weak, and there is high inventory accumulation in November - December, so the upside pressure is large. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold at high levels, and EG1 - 5 can be reversed at high levels [4]. - **Short - fiber**: The weekly supply - demand is stable. Supply remains high, and demand has improved with the decrease in temperature, but the ability of downstream to chase prices is weak, and processing fees have been compressed. The improvement in demand and the strength of the cost side are not sustainable, so the rebound space is limited, but the price support is strong due to low inventory. Unilateral operations are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100, and should be shorted when it is above 1000 [4]. - **Bottle - chip**: There is no news of further production cuts in October. In the traditional off - season of demand in the fourth quarter, demand support is insufficient, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory - building period. PR fluctuates with the cost side. In the short - term, the processing fee will decline, but attention should be paid to the change of plant load and new production capacity. Unilateral operations are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [4]. Methanol - This week, the port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The willingness to hold inventory has weakened, and both price and basis have declined. The decline in the inland market is even deeper. Overseas, many plants have shut down. On the demand side, many MTO plants have reduced their loads due to profit reasons, and more maintenance is expected. The current market is trading on the "weak reality vs. strong expectation" logic, with the core contradiction being the game between high port inventory and potential supply reduction. Although the start - up rate of traditional downstream has increased slightly, the MTO load has decreased significantly, and demand support is insufficient. In the short - term, prices may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the port de - stocking rhythm and the implementation of overseas gas restrictions [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is at a high level, the price of downstream alumina continues to decline, and industry profits are shrinking with increasing losses. So, the demand - side support for caustic soda is weak in the short - term, and the market price lacks support. In the medium - term, as the demand purchase cycle approaches, downstream has restocking needs, and the price is expected to have some support. From the production schedule, there will be more alumina production in the first quarter of next year, so there may be concentrated restocking in the fourth quarter, and the spot liquidity may tighten. In the non - aluminum aspect, after the National Day, there may be purchasing intentions due to low prices as the non - aluminum inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to non - aluminum restocking. It is recommended to close the previous short positions and track the downstream restocking rhythm [7]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC disk stopped falling and stabilized, showing a volatile trend. This week, the supply load is low due to many maintenance plants, but it is expected to increase next week. Domestic downstream start - up rates remain low, and orders are limited, with downstream mainly purchasing on a just - in - time basis. The cost of raw materials (calcium carbide) has been rising, but the space is limited, and the ethylene price may decline next week. The cost side provides bottom support. In the future, the logic of a weak peak season is expected to continue, and the disk will still face pressure, but the absolute price is already low, and short - term trading strategies can be considered [7]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices have declined. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 have increased. Some spot prices have changed slightly, and the basis of North China LL and East China pp has increased [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: PE and PP inventories have decreased. The PE plant start - up rate has decreased slightly, while the downstream weighted start - up rate has increased. The PP plant start - up rate has decreased, the powder start - up rate has increased, and the downstream weighted start - up rate has also increased [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price Changes**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of pure benzene and styrene and their related spreads have also changed. The import profits of pure benzene and styrene have changed [3]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have increased. The start - up rates of some plants in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of downstream polyester products and their cash flows, as well as PX, PTA, and MEG - related prices and spreads have all changed [4]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: MEG port inventory has increased, and the arrival expectation has decreased. The start - up rates of various plants in the polyester industrial chain have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The prices of MA2601, MA2605, and spot methanol in different regions have changed. The spreads and basis have also changed [5]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: Methanol inventories (enterprise, port, and social) have increased. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream methanol plants have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC in different forms and regions have changed. The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have also changed [7]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have changed. The inventories of caustic soda and PVC (factory and social) have decreased slightly [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the log market is upward, but the monthly spread continues to weaken. The 01 contract is trading based on expectations related to special port charges for log vessels. If the charges are implemented, it may lead to potential price increases or supply reductions. The monthly spread between 11 - 01 contracts has reached a new low and may continue to weaken. [1][6][8] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830 yuan/m³, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4%. [2] Hedging Strategies - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2511) at 820 - 830 yuan/m³ with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2511) at 780 - 800 yuan/m³ with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. [2] Market Conditions - **Futures**: lg2511 closed at 803 (+1), and lg2601 closed at 838 (+3.5) with a position of 17,000 lots. - **Spot**: The spot price remained unchanged. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is about 831 yuan/m³ in the Yangtze River Delta and 836 yuan/m³ in Shandong. - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the national inventory was 2.99 million m³ (+130,000). [5][6] Core Contradiction - The 01 contract is trading on expectations based on special port charges for log vessels. If implemented, it may lead to higher CFR quotes or supply reductions. However, the policy's stability is uncertain, and the delivery logic may lead to a discounted delivery state. [6] Monthly Spread Analysis - The monthly spread between 11 - 01 contracts closed at - 34.5, a new low. It may continue to weaken as it may not be considered absolutely safe. [8] Strategies - Implement a covered call strategy for the 01 contract. Establish additional short positions of 1/3 of lg2601c850 and 2/3 of lg2601C875 corresponding to the total long positions. Also, set dynamic stop - profit orders for long positions in the 01 contract. [9] Data Overview - **Supply**: Radiation pine imports in August 2025 were 1.3 million m³ (- 100,000 m³ compared to the previous period, - 3.7% year - on - year). - **Inventory**: As of October 17th, the national port inventory was 2.92 million m³ (- 70,000 m³ compared to the previous period, + 22.2% year - on - year), with 1.846 million m³ in Shandong ports (- 46,000 m³ compared to the previous period, + 78.7% year - on - year) and 887,310 m³ in Jiangsu ports (+ 6,410 m³ compared to the previous period, - 9.5% year - on - year). The daily average outbound volume from log ports was 63,200 m³ (+ 5,900 m³ compared to the previous period, - 9.5% year - on - year). - **Demand**: The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 34,200 m³ (- 200 m³ compared to the previous period, - 5.5% year - on - year), and in Jiangsu was 24,200 m³ (+ 6,300 m³ compared to the previous period, - 8.3% year - on - year). - **Profit**: The import profit of radiation pine on October 24th was - 64 yuan/m³, and that of spruce was - 118 yuan/m³ (- 3 yuan/m³ compared to the previous period). [11] Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Seasonal factors in New Zealand increase the proportion of integrated timber and decrease the proportion of sawn timber. Potential increases in import costs due to shipping surcharges. Relatively low inventory levels. - **Negative factors**: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products. Reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products from non - mainstream delivery warehouses. [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The price of the main soybean oil futures contract is expected to move slightly higher in the medium to long term, with short - term fluctuations due to sufficient inventory. The main contract long positions can be considered for holding, with support at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of the main rapeseed oil contract is expected to move higher in the medium to long term under the expectation of inventory reduction. Aggressive investors can consider going long on the 01 contract on dips and can buy put options to protect positions if worried about trade risks. The support for the 01 contract is 9800 - 9820, and the resistance is 10020 - 10050 [2]. - The medium - to long - term bullish view on palm oil remains unchanged. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization. The support for the main contract is 9230 - 9270, and the resistance is 9650 - 9680 [3]. - The price of soybean meal futures is expected to remain weak, and short - selling on the main contract can be considered. Arbitrage can consider going long on the 01 contract bean oil - meal ratio [3]. - Rapeseed meal futures show a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may remain volatile in the short term [5]. - Corn and corn starch futures are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For corn, short positions can be held cautiously or consider the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage. For corn starch, short positions can be reduced on dips [6]. - The price of soybean No.1 futures is expected to be oscillating strongly, and long positions can be held [7]. - For peanut futures, long positions can be held temporarily, and attention should be paid to the acquisition dynamics of oil mills and the harvest situation of new crops [8]. - For live hog futures, medium - term investors can consider going long on the 2607 contract after the confirmation of capacity reduction, and cautious investors can wait and see [8]. - For egg futures, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2512 contract at low prices [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support | Resistance | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 01 | Domestic new soybeans are in abundant supply, and downstream acquisition is relatively active. | 4000 - 4030 | 4100 - 4150 | Oscillating strongly | Hold long positions [11] | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Weak reality collides with strong expectations. | 3500 - 3540 | 3675 - 3700 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see [11] | | | Peanut 11 | The supply is increasing, and the yield in some areas of Henan is not good. Affected by crude oil fluctuations recently. | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see [11] | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Currently, the supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. | 8150 - 8200 | 8400 - 8450 | Oscillating up | Go long with a light position [11] | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | The inventory in East China and coastal areas is continuously decreasing. | 9800 - 9820 | 10220 - 10250 | Stop falling and rebound | Go long after stabilization [11] | | | Palm 01 | The inventory pressure in the producing areas is not large, and the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. | 9230 - 9270 | 9650 - 9680 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization [11] | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | The current inventory of soybean meal is sufficient, and the feed demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter. | 2800 - 2850 | 2960 - 2970 | Oscillating adjustment | Hold short positions [11] | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills is decreasing, and market disturbances are intertwined. | 2230 - 2250 | 2400 - 2430 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see [11] | | Energy and By - products | Corn 01 | The fundamentals are under pressure, and the bullish factors are limited. | 2000 - 2020 | 2180 - 2200 | Bottom - level oscillation | Reduce short positions on dips [11] | | | Starch 11 | The price of corn is under pressure, and the spot market is slightly loose. | 2340 - 2350 | 2500 - 2520 | Bottom - level oscillation | Reduce short positions on dips [11] | | Livestock | Live hog 01 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11800 - 12000 | 12500 - 12800 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Turn to wait - and - see [11] | | | Egg 12 | There is capacity pressure and consumption peak - season expectation. | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Wait and see [11] | 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For corn 5 - 1, go long on dips with a target of 180 - 200; for live hog 1 - 3, do positive arbitrage on dips [12]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For 01 soybean oil - palm oil, operate bearishly; for 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, operate bullishly; for 01 bean oil - meal ratio and 01 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, operate bullishly [12]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The table shows the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties such as oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipment periods, such as the arrival - at - port CIF price, import - arrival - at - port duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the oil - mill inventory of soybean meal, and the operating rates of soybean and rapeseed oil mills [17]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of starch enterprises of deep - processing enterprises [18]. 3. Livestock - It includes the daily and weekly data of live hogs and eggs, such as the spot price, pig - grain ratio, and inventory data of live hogs, and the spot price, production rate, and inventory data of eggs [19][20][21][23]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Live Hogs, Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of the main contracts of live hogs and eggs, spot prices, and prices of related products such as piglets, white - striped pork, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens [25][26][28][29][30][32]. - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: It shows the monthly production, export volume, ending inventory, import profit, and inventory data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the trading volume and price - spread data of domestic palm oil [34][36][37][40][41]. - **Soybean Oil**: It includes the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, crushing profit, oil - mill operating rate, and inventory data in the United States, as well as the trading volume and price - spread data of domestic soybean oil [43][45][46]. - **Peanut**: It shows the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the daily crushing profit, operating rate, inventory data of peanuts and peanut oil, and price - spread data [48][50]. - **Feed End** - **Corn**: It includes the closing price, spot price, basis, price - spread data, inventory data of ports and deep - processing enterprises, and processing profit data of corn [52][55]. - **Corn Starch**: It shows the closing price, spot price, basis, operating rate, inventory, and processing profit data of corn starch [57][59]. - **Rapeseed**: It includes the spot price, basis, inventory, and crushing profit data of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [59][63]. - **Soybean Meal**: It shows the growth rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, inventory, basis, and price - spread data of American soybeans, as well as the price - spread data between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [66][69][71][79][80]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the historical volatility data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio data of corn options [82][83]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live hogs, and eggs, as well as the open interest data of the live hog and egg indices [85][86][87][91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a volatile downward trend. The moving - average lines on the chart show a bearish arrangement, with a weak technical pattern. It may continue to test the support level of the 2100 - yuan integer mark. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [6][61]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1.走势回顾 (Review of Trends) - **Futures Prices**: After the holiday, the corn futures market was weak, showing a downward - opening, low - running, and volatile downward trend. As of last Friday's close, the main corn contract C2511 closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous trading day. The market trading was active, with a trading volume of 393,175 lots and an open interest of 591,363 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 413.5 cents per bushel, down 1.14% [4][10][15]. - **Spot Prices**: The weekly average price of national corn last week was 2336 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the Northeast production area, the purchase price of new grain generally decreased. In North China, due to continuous rainfall delaying the harvest, the price fluctuated downward. In the sales area, new grain led the decline, and old grain followed. The price of ports first decreased and then stabilized. The purchase price of Shekou Port was 2370 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from before the National Day [5][17][20]. 3.2.上周相关信息回顾 (Review of Relevant Information Last Week) - Analysts expected that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending October 2, 2025, would be between 1.2 million and 2 million tons. From January to August this year, Russia exported more than 287,000 tons of corn to China, three times the export volume of the same period last year. In September, Brazil's corn export volume was 7.563 million tons. In October 2025, Brazil's corn export volume is expected to be between 5.81 million and 6.3 million tons, with an average of 6.06 million tons, a 6.8% increase from October last year. As of October 7, Kazakhstan had harvested 13.6 million tons of grains. As of October 8, Ukraine's grain export volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.937 million tons, a decrease of 4.8 million tons or 40.9% from the same period last year. As of October 3, the daily average ethanol production was 1.071 million barrels per day. As of October 10, more than half of the autumn grain in the country had been harvested. As of October 10, Ukraine's grain harvest in 2025 had reached 33.03 million tons [21][22]. 3.3.玉米供需格局分析 (Analysis of Corn Supply - Demand Pattern) - **Feed Enterprises' Inventory**: As of October 9, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.49 days, down 0.72 days from the previous week, a 2.86% month - on - month decrease and a 6.06% year - on - year decrease. During the holiday, the inventory slightly decreased because enterprises mainly consumed previous orders, with limited new purchase orders [26]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory**: The total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises last week was 2.334 million tons, a 14.64% increase from before the holiday but a 14% decrease year - on - year. The inventory decreased as new grain entered the market, and enterprises mainly made rigid replenishments for short - term production needs [29]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption**: Last week, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1927 million tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes [34]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup Situation**: Last week, the total corn processing volume was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons from before the holiday. The weekly corn starch output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from before the holiday. The weekly startup rate was 51.81%, up 2.36% from before the holiday [39]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit Situation**: Last week, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 235 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Shandong, it was - 81 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Heilongjiang, it was - 178 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton month - on - month. Deep - processing enterprises generally adopted a "low - inventory + fast - turnover" strategy [44]. 3.4.关联品情况分析 (Analysis of Related Products) - **Corn Starch**: Last week, the corn starch market was weak. The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang all decreased compared with before the holiday. The concentrated listing of new corn dragged down the price of corn starch, and downstream buyers were in a wait - and - see mood [50][51]. - **Pigs**: Last week, the pig price dropped significantly. As of last Friday, the national average pig slaughter price was 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.1 yuan/kg from before the holiday, a nearly 9% month - on - month decrease. After the double festivals, the pig market was characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The slaughter rate of key slaughtering enterprises decreased after October 5, and the price of white - striped pork fell in tandem with the pig price [59][60]. 3.5.后市展望 (Market Outlook) - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a volatile downward trend. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [61]. 3.6.操作策略 (Operation Strategies) - **Single - side Trading**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for near - month contracts. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold reverse spreads. - **Options**: Construct a bear - spread strategy [7][62].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent performance of lumber futures, which showed a slight decline of 0.18%, with the main contract trading at 825.0 yuan, indicating a weak market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Lumber futures experienced a weak fluctuation, with the lowest point reaching 822.0 yuan and a current price of 825.0 yuan, reflecting a minor decrease [1]. - The overall market is characterized by an inverted relationship between domestic and international prices, with foreign pricing still on the rise, providing strong cost support [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - New Lake Futures suggests a strategy of buying on dips for the November lumber contract, anticipating a recovery in demand as the peak season approaches, while monitoring macroeconomic policies and actual demand [2]. - According to Ruida Futures, the recommendation is to operate within a range, with support around 800 yuan and resistance near 830 yuan, as the supply and demand dynamics show marginal recovery [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Customs data indicates a slight month-on-month decrease in the import volume of lumber and softwood, while year-on-year figures show an increase, with New Zealand's lumber shipments also declining in August [3]. - The average daily outflow of lumber from ports has decreased, and the current inventory of softwood at ports stands at 2.86 million cubic meters, reflecting a reduction of 60,000 cubic meters, indicating a neutral inventory level for the year [3].