1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: International sugar supply surplus has improved, and domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. Zhengzhou sugar may rise in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously after the main contract stabilizes on a pullback [3]. - **Pulp**: The cost support of pulp mills is emerging, but the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upward space of pulp may be restricted. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The spot market is stable, but the demand improvement in the peak season is limited. It is recommended to operate in the range with a short - bias [6]. - **Cotton**: The medium - term support of the cotton market remains unchanged, and the short - term futures price is expected to return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector** - **Apple**: There is limited new driving force, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in the high - level range. It is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [8]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows characteristics of having a ceiling and a floor. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Return to wait - and - see. The supply side provides support, but the consumption support is insufficient, and the futures price continues to fluctuate in the high - level range. The support interval is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - **Jujube 2605**: Short - term buying on dips. The expected production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support interval is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Go long after stabilization. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the supply and demand fundamentals in China are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure interval is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - **Pulp 2605**: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - disk price of broad - leaf pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply and demand of bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support interval is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Operate in the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn exerts short - term pressure, but the outer - disk stabilizes and rebounds, and the medium - term upward expectation of the futures price remains unchanged. The support interval is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure interval is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the transaction in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume is acceptable for the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 crushing season is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased by 6 week - on - week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 219,700 tons. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of March 24, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 95,804 contracts [24]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and the seller announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and seeing from buyers. The domestic market transaction is weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increases by 205,000 tons [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [27]. - **Cotton Market**: As of March 28, the net export contract of Egyptian cotton in two weeks was 1,544 tons, and the signing volume of India and Pakistan increased, while China cancelled some contracts. As of March 30, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 47,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04% [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of apple 2605, jujube 2605, sugar 2605, pulp 2605, and cotton 2605 were 9826, 8750, 5398, 5124, and 15295 respectively, with daily declines of 37, 25, 43, 58, and 90 respectively, and daily decline rates of 0.38%, 0.28%, 0.79%, 1.12%, and 0.58% respectively [29]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton were 4.45 yuan per catty, 9.40 yuan per kilogram, 5420 yuan per ton, 5180 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), and 16850 yuan per ton respectively. The环比 changes were 0, - 0.10, - 40, 0, 0, and 27 respectively, and the year - on - year changes were 0.45, - 5.30, - 750, - 1300, - 800, and 1969 respectively [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 5 - 10 spread is 1083, with a week - on - week decrease of 17 and a year - on - year increase of 954. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [54]. - **Jujube**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 360, with a week - on - week increase of 25 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 33, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 139. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 135, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are 0, 4269, 16862, 189631, and 12420 respectively. The环比 changes are 0, - 4, 0, 1468, and - 15 respectively, and the year - on - year changes are 0, - 2796, - 10548, - 185592, and 3170 respectively [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south non - identical oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, consider that it already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, expect a high start - up in the first quarter, with no prominent domestic contradictions under the situation of both supply and demand being strong. Suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and take profits gradually on out - of - the - money call options of butadiene rubber and start to allocate put options. Continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, in the short term, the supply shock is not fully reflected in the fundamentals. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rise, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position [19]. - For polyethylene, when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost - end to the production mismatch [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but pay attention to the risk [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to continue to decline, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation of oil - chemical industry is at a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 23.00 yuan/barrel, a 3.11% increase, to 763.50 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 180.00 yuan/ton, a 4.05% increase, to 4619.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 176.00 yuan/ton, a 3.44% increase, to 5285.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Start a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; widen the Platts north - south non - identical oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase; short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread; short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 77.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3319 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 113 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider that methanol already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, while other regions such as Henan, Hebei, etc. had no change. The main futures contract changed by 5 yuan/ton, reported at 1882 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a high start - up in the first quarter, with no prominent domestic contradictions under the situation of both supply and demand being strong. Suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene is strong in the spot market due to the demand from Japan and South Korea. The butadiene rubber production line is in serious loss, and the operating rate is reduced to shrink the supply. The price has room for repair. The overall market changes rapidly. The long and short sides have different views on the rise and fall reasons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and take profits gradually on out - of - the - money call options of butadiene rubber and start to allocate put options. Continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 64 yuan, reported at 5551 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5500 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 51 (+114) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 80.9%, with the calcium carbide method at 85.2% and the ethylene method at 70.7%. The downstream operating rate was 46%. The factory inventory was 33.9 (-2.7) tons, and the social inventory was 137.4 (+0.3) tons [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the supply shock is not fully reflected in the fundamentals. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rise, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - end East China pure benzene was 8930 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan/ton; the pure benzene active contract closed at 9062 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 132 yuan/ton, narrowing by 37 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 10700 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton; the styrene active contract closed at 10789 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton; the basis was - 89 yuan/ton, strengthening by 335 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 16 yuan/ton, up 24.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated device profit was - 80.7 yuan/ton, down 110.55 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, down 0.51%; the Jiangsu port inventory was 16.84 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 0.59 tons. The demand - end three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, down 0.27%; the PS operating rate was 51.40%, down 0.20%; the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, up 2.27%; the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, down 4.50% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8868 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8600 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was - 268 yuan/ton, weakening by 101 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, down 1.41%. The production enterprise inventory was 58.79 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 1.96 tons, and the trader inventory was 5.63 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 0.15 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, up 2.41%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 129 yuan/ton, narrowing by 6 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: When the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9269 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The basis was 81 yuan/ton, strengthening by 244 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, down 2.72%. The production enterprise inventory was 49.97 tons, with a de - stocking of 9.65 tons, the trader inventory was 17.78 tons, with a de - stocking of 1.584 tons, and the port inventory was 6.96 tons, with a de - stocking of 0.23 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, up 0.65%. The LL - PP spread was - 465 yuan/ton, narrowing by 20 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 338 yuan/ton, widening by 5 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost - end to the production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 76 yuan, reported at 9840 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was - 2 (+40) yuan. The Chinese load was 84%, down 0.6%; the Asian load was 72.7%, down 2.1%. Some devices were restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, up 1%. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 2.8 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of February was 480 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 16 tons. The PXN was 120 (-11) dollars, the South Korean PX - MX was 115 (-3) dollars, and the naphtha cracking spread was 364 (-4) dollars [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 108 yuan, reported at 6768 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 92 (-28) yuan. The PTA load was 81.8%, up 1%. The downstream load was 86.8%, down 0.8%. The social inventory on March 27 was 280 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 6.9 tons. The disk processing fee fell 58 yuan, to 313 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but pay attention to the risk [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 80 yuan, reported at 5359 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 125 (-21) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, down 0.6%, with the syngas - made at 73.3%, up 1%, and the ethylene - made load at 61.7%, down 1.5%. Some domestic and overseas devices were restarted or shut down. The downstream load was 86.8%, down 0.8%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 tons, and the East China departure on March 29 was 1.7 tons. The port inventory was 107.5 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 3.6 tons. The naphtha - made profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - made profit was - 2741 yuan, and the coal - made profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - end ethylene rose to 1440 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is expected to continue to decline, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation of oil - chemical industry is at a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it has fully included the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, with a strong expectation of high first - quarter production, although there are still positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Suggest short - selling at high prices and expect short - term demand support when the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market fluctuates greatly. Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations. Allocate out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, in the short - term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will rise mainly, but beware of risks due to large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, suggest empty - position waiting and watching [19]. - For polyethylene, wait for the increase in the number of vessel passages in the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production - mismatch - driven [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline further, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but beware of short - term over - increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of short - term over - increases [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation is at a historical low, but beware of short - term over - increases [32]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogues Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 66.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.20%, at 739.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 350.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.09%, at 4590.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 520.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.93%, at 5301.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (96.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3139 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 43 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: It has fully included the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, and Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton; others remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 24 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 43 yuan/ton, reported at 1884 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: With a strong expectation of high first - quarter production, although there are still positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Suggest short - selling at high prices and expect short - term demand support when the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene rubber rose sharply, while stock - market and economy - sensitive commodities fell. The overall market changed rapidly. The reasons for the rise were macro - bullish expectations and seasonal expectations, while the reasons for the fall were weak demand. As of March 19, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still suspended. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 tons to 69.21 tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15250 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+10) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+5) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 17500 (+2000) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 17900 (+1700) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16300 (+1200) yuan. The Asian butadiene operating rate decreased, and supply decreased, with butadiene expected to be strong [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations. Allocate out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 398 yuan, reported at 5853 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5860 (-160) yuan/ton, the basis was 7 (+238) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 87 (-51) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2735 (+85) yuan/ton, semi - coke medium - sized material price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (+25) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda spot was 726 (+18) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium - carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 tons (-3.6) [14]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will rise mainly, but beware of risks due to large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton; the pure benzene active contract closing price was 8501 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 134 yuan/ton, an increase of 364 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton; the styrene active contract closing price was 10242 yuan/ton, a decrease of 828 yuan/ton; the basis was 858 yuan/ton, an increase of 1628 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 202.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 286.4 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.25 tons, an increase of 0.60 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS operating rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS operating rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS operating rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Strategy**: Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, suggest empty - position waiting and watching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 605 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 580 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 56.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 tons; the trader inventory was 5.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 182 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the increase in the number of vessel passages in the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 9114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 679 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was 136 yuan/ton, an increase of 654 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 59.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 tons; the trader inventory was 19.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 tons; the port inventory was 7.19 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 196 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 74 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 334 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 165 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production - mismatch - driven [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 682 yuan, reported at 9708 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 40 (-74) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The restart of Daxie was postponed, Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped production, and the Kuwaiti overseas device stopped production. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong reduced their loads, Jiaxing Petrochemical resumed after a short - stop, Yisheng New Materials planned to reduce its load, and Yihua restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 31.1 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of March, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 113 US dollars (+32), South Korea's PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 485 US dollars (+110) [26]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but beware of short - term over - increases [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 440 yuan, reported at 6694 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 110 (-78) yuan. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong reduced their loads, Jiaxing Petrochemical resumed after a short - stop, Yisheng New Materials planned to reduce its load, and Yihua restarted. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 326 yuan [29]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of short - term over - increases [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 455 yuan, reported at 5119 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 82 (-68) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%, among which the syngas - made was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - made load was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. One line of Zhongkun was under maintenance; in the oil - chemical sector, Fulei and Hainan Refining and Chemical reduced their loads, while Zhejiang Petrochemical and Satellite increased their loads. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 tons, and the East China departure on March 23 was 1.12 tons. The port inventory was 103.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - made profit was - 3074 yuan, the domestic ethylene - made profit was - 2434 yuan, and the coal - made profit was 1310 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam - coal price rebounded to 640 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation is at a historical low, but beware of short - term over - increases [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices as it already incorporates current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions [3]. - For urea, suggest short - selling as the expected high - level production in the first quarter and the marginal impact of export quotas are considered. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [6]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and considering a hedging strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, expect short - term price rebounds but be cautious of risks due to factors such as cost increases and potential supply shortages [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, recommend staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and geopolitical factors cause large market fluctuations [18]. - For polyethylene, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [21]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [24]. - For PX, expect the valuation to rise as the load is expected to decline and the inventory is expected to decrease, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [27]. - For PTA, expect the processing fee to be difficult to rise and the PXN to have room for significant increase under the influence of geopolitical factors, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [30]. - For ethylene glycol, expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to turn into a de - stocking cycle. Be cautious of short - term over - increase [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 9.20 yuan/barrel, a 1.19% decline, at 761.20 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 19.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% decline, at 4771.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 5.00 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase, at 5641.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 8.00 yuan/ton, at 2847 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by - 216 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices as it already incorporates current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Hebei it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 8 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by - 22 yuan/ton, at 1878 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest short - selling as the expected high - level production in the first quarter and the marginal impact of export quotas are considered. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market changes rapidly. Bulls expect price increases due to macro expectations, seasonal factors, and demand expectations, while bears expect price decreases due to weak demand. As of March 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 68.64%, up 2.23 percentage points from last week and down 0.45 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 76.69%, up 3.17 percentage points from last week and down 6.11 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel exports to the Middle East slowed down, and there was concentrated export to the EU. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 tons, a 1.21% increase [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and considering a hedging strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 52 yuan, at 5901 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5730 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 171 (- 92) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 16 (+ 16) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.4%, up 0.2%. The downstream operating rate was 39.3%, up 3.5%. Factory inventory was 37.7 tons (- 8.1), and social inventory was 140.7 tons (+ 0.3) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect short - term price rebounds but be cautious of risks due to factors such as cost increases and potential supply shortages [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - end East China pure benzene price was 8390 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene active contract closing price was 8443 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 53 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase. The styrene spot price was 10150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase. The styrene active contract closing price was 10204 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The basis was - 54 yuan/ton, a 42 - yuan strengthening. The BZN spread was 47.5 yuan/ton, a 27.25 - yuan increase. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 58.1 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 71.79%, a 2.32% decrease. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.65 tons, a 0.91 - ton de - stocking. The demand - end three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and geopolitical factors cause large market fluctuations [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8496 yuan/ton, a 181 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 8375 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 121 yuan/ton, an 81 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 57.54 tons, a 3.92 - ton increase. The trader inventory was 5.00 tons, a 0.77 - ton de - stocking. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 294 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan decrease [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8671 yuan/ton, a 186 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a 125 - yuan increase. The basis was 29 yuan/ton, a 311 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 68 tons, a 2.49 - ton increase. The trader inventory was 20.61 tons, a 0.655 - ton de - stocking. The port inventory was 7.47 tons, a 0.67 - ton de - stocking. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 175 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The PP5 - 9 spread was 492 yuan/ton, a 59 - yuan decrease [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract decreased by 162 yuan, at 10018 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was 278 yuan (- 126). The Chinese PX load was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease. The Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease. Many domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease. In early March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 15.7 tons, a 1.8 - ton decrease year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 tons, a 1 - ton decrease month - on - month. The PXN was 229 dollars (+ 16), the South Korean PX - MX was 81 dollars (+ 11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 312 dollars (+ 14) [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the valuation to rise as the load is expected to decline and the inventory is expected to decrease, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 64 yuan, at 6918 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 248 yuan (- 44). The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 tons, a 2.6 - ton increase. The disk processing fee increased by 42 yuan, to 346 yuan [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the processing fee to be difficult to rise and the PXN to have room for significant increase under the influence of geopolitical factors, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 71 yuan, at 4826 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 67 yuan (- 15). The ethylene glycol load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase. The import arrival forecast was 15 tons, and the East China departure on March 16 was 1.06 tons. The port inventory was 101.1 tons, a 5.7 - ton de - stocking. The naphtha - based profit was - 2820 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1854 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1160 yuan. The cost - end ethylene rose to 1200 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price fell to 550 yuan [32][33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to turn into a de - stocking cycle. Be cautious of short - term over - increase [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a strategic short - position configuration, do long the spread of Platts north - south non - identical oil types and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2] - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profit at high prices [4] - For urea, short it on rallies as the domestic contradiction is not prominent in the context of high supply and demand, and the export quota has little cost - effectiveness. There may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and consider opening or holding a long position in NR and a short position in RU2609 for hedging [12] - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious as it has risen too much [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19] - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22] - For polypropylene, the short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24] - For PX, although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, but be cautious as it has risen too much [27] - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee may rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much [29] - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the port inventory is expected to de - stock. However, be cautious as it has risen too much [32] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 73.10 yuan/barrel, or 11.26%, to 722.30 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 392.00 yuan/ton, or 9.20%, to 4653.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 730.00 yuan/ton, or 14.83%, to 5653.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy**: Start a strategic short - position configuration; do long the spread of Platts north - south non - identical oil types; short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread; short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 120.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2726 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 98 yuan [4] - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices as it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China did not change. The overall basis was reported at - 15 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 3 yuan/ton, reported at 1875 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy**: Short it on rallies. There may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: The market was affected by refinery shutdowns and policy expectations, leading to a rebound in related products. The overall market changed rapidly. Bulls and bears had different views. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.52%. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 million tons. Spot prices of some products had changes [9][10][11] - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and consider opening or holding a long position in NR and a short position in RU2609 for hedging [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 49 yuan to 5620 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5650 (+380) yuan/ton, the basis was 30 (+331) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 13 (+16) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 81.1%, a 1% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 35.8%, an 18.7% increase. Factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (- 4.6), and social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [14] - **Strategy**: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious as it has risen too much [16] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of East China pure benzene rose 650 yuan/ton to 8635 yuan/ton. The active contract of pure benzene closed at 8297 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton. The basis of pure benzene expanded by 400 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton. The active contract of styrene closed at 9926 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene weakened by 6 yuan/ton. The BZN spread decreased by 38.75 yuan/ton. The non - integrated device profit of EB decreased by 355.5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.91 million tons to 16.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [18] - **Strategy**: With the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8236 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8575 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton. The basis was 339 yuan/ton, strengthening by 668 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 57.54 million tons, accumulating 3.92 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.00 million tons, de - stocking 0.77 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 302 yuan/ton, narrowing by 46 yuan/ton [21] - **Strategy**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8303 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8650 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton. The basis was 347 yuan/ton, strengthening by 444 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, accumulating 2.49 million tons, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, de - stocking 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, de - stocking 0.67 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 67 yuan/ton, narrowing by 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 552 yuan/ton, expanding by 1 yuan/ton [23] - **Strategy**: The short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24] PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 686 yuan to 10218 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 88 US dollars to 1305 US dollars. The basis was 154 yuan (+19), and the 5 - 7 spread was 546 yuan (+134). The Chinese load was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease; the Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The PTA load was 80.1%, a 0.9% decrease. In early March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 15.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 million tons. The PXN was 342 US dollars (+32), the South Korean PX - MX was 80 US dollars (- 32), and the naphtha crack spread was 189 US dollars (+17) [26] - **Strategy**: Although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, but be cautious as it has risen too much [27] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 338 yuan to 6998 yuan. The East China spot price rose 710 yuan to 7030 yuan. The basis was - 22 yuan (- 8), and the 5 - 9 spread was 392 yuan (+26). The PTA load was 80.1%, a 0.9% decrease. The downstream load was 87.2%, a 3.1% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, accumulating 2.6 million tons. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 247 yuan to 226 yuan, and the on - disk processing fee fell 112 yuan to 295 yuan [28] - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee may rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 76 yuan to 4653 yuan. The East China spot price rose 315 yuan to 4715 yuan. The basis was - 58 yuan (- 35), and the 5 - 9 spread was 117 yuan (- 26). The supply - side load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or load reduction. The downstream load was 87.2%, a 3.1% increase. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the East China departure on March 11 was 1.2 million tons. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, accumulating 6.6 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2155 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1216 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 661 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 970 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 580 yuan [31] - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the port inventory is expected to de - stock. However, be cautious as it has risen too much [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodities Sector** - **Sugar**: International sugar supply - demand is improving. With Chinese southern sugar mills starting to wind down operations, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract can be considered for long - position entry upon stabilization. The SR2605 contract has a support level of 5300 - 5320 and a resistance level of 5600 - 5650 [2][22]. - **Pulp**: Overseas bleached softwood pulp has news of production cuts, which may support the current price of softwood pulp. The decline of pulp prices is limited, but the rebound space depends on the sustainability of production cuts. For the 2605 contract, the resistance is 5300 - 5400 yuan, and the support is 5150 - 5200 yuan. Short positions should temporarily exit and wait and see [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper is stable, while the pulp price has fallen from a high, weakening the cost support. The futures market is expected to fluctuate with the basis. The support is 4000 - 4050 yuan, and the resistance is 4250 - 4300 yuan. Short - position allocation is recommended for the short - term [8]. - **Cotton**: The external market is expected to bottom out and rise, providing external support for domestic cotton prices. Domestic cotton has medium - term fundamental support, and its price is expected to move up in the medium - term. In the short - term, it may show a platform consolidation. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously. The support range for the cotton 05 contract is estimated to be 14000 - 14200, and the resistance range is 15800 - 16000 [9][10]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector** - **Apple**: The overall supply of apples has a structural contraction, and the price is expected to remain high. The focus of the market will shift to consumption expectations and new - season weather disturbances. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies. The support range for the apple 2605 contract is 9000 - 9200, and the resistance range is 11000 - 11500 [11][12][22]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to exit short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract. Long - position holders can buy protective put options. Cautious investors can hold a short 2605 and long 2609 reverse spread. The support is 8700 - 9000 points, and the resistance is 9500 - 9800 points [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Reduce long positions on rallies. The supply - side support remains, and the overall futures price is expected to move up. Support: 9000 - 9200, Resistance: 11000 - 11500 [12][22]. - **Jujube 2605**: Buy on dips in the short - term. The expectation of production cuts may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has started to peak and decline. Support: 8700 - 9000, Resistance: 9500 - 9800 [14][22]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Bullish operation. The international sugar supply surplus has improved, and the supply - demand fundamentals in China are getting better. Support: 5300 - 5320, Resistance: 5600 - 5650 [22]. - **Pulp 2605**: Short - position allocation on rallies. The rise in the outer - market price of hardwood pulp has driven up the pulp futures, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs verification, and the supply - demand improvement of bleached softwood pulp is limited. Support: 5130 - 5200, Resistance: 5350 - 5400 [22]. - **Offset Paper 2605**: Range - bound operation. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. Pay attention to the support after the futures price drops further and the basis widens. Support: 4000 - 4100, Resistance: 4250 - 4300 [22]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The long - term bullish expectations remain, but the rise of the external - market price is not confirmed, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term price may continue to consolidate. Support: 14000 - 14200, Resistance: 15800 - 16000 [22]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamentals**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of March 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 470,520 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 239,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 316,700 tons [23]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable, with more merchants in the market. The price in the sales area is also stable [23][24][25]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,817 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. The market is slowly recovering, and the inventory reduction speed is slow [26]. - **Sugar Market**: Uncertainty in the expectation of the Middle - East military conflict has led to a decline in sugar prices. As of March 9, 6 sugar mills in Guangxi have shut down for the season, with a daily shutdown capacity of 42,000 tons. India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season may reach 28.3 million tons. The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons. The Datagro agency expects a global sugar supply shortage of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 season [28]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp has increased by $10 per ton. Sellers plan to raise the price by another $20 per ton in March, but buyers are cautious. The domestic market has weak transactions, with increased port inventories [30]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of offset paper decreased by 2.05% last week, with a narrowing decline rate. The operating load rate this week was 57.43%, with a narrowing increase rate. The industry's inventory reduction speed has slowed down [31]. - **Cotton Market**: In 2026, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to be 2.05 million hectares, with an expected output of 3.83 million tons. As of March 7, Egypt's net cotton export contracts increased by 48.9% week - on - week. In January 2026, Australia's cotton export volume was about 53,000 tons. From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing exports were $50.446 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% [32][33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - **Apple 2605**: The closing price was 10,303, up 16 or 0.16% [33]. - **Jujube 2605**: The closing price was 8,985, down 75 or 0.83% [33]. - **Sugar 2605**: The closing price was 5,409, down 27 or 0.50% [33]. - **Pulp 2605**: The closing price was 5,244, down 56 or 1.06% [33]. - **Cotton 2605**: The closing price was 15,320, up 35 or 0.23% [33]. - **Spot Market Review** - **Apple**: The spot price was 4.45 yuan per jin, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan [40]. - **Jujube**: The spot price was 9.40 yuan per kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [40]. - **Sugar**: The spot price was 5,440 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 80 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 610 yuan [40]. - **Pulp**: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5,300 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1,250 yuan [40]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin offset paper was 4,350 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan [40]. - **Cotton**: The spot price was 16,733 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 101 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1,851 yuan [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figures are presented in the content 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple 5 - 10**: The spread is 1,650, a month - on - month decrease of 14 and a year - on - year increase of 2,080. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Recommend buying on dips [61]. - **Jujube 5 - 9**: The spread is - 370, a month - on - month increase of 10 and a year - on - year increase of 55. Recommend waiting and seeing [61]. - **Sugar 5 - 9**: The spread is - 22, a month - on - month decrease of 9 and a year - on - year decrease of 171. It is expected to fluctuate. Recommend waiting and seeing [61]. - **Cotton 5 - 9**: The spread is - 60, a month - on - month decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 105. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Recommend selling on rallies [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figures are presented in the content 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Apple**: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [86]. - **Jujube**: The number of warehouse receipts is 4,031, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1,722 [86]. - **Sugar**: The number of warehouse receipts is 15,930, a month - on - month increase of 982 and a year - on - year decrease of 8,707 [86]. - **Pulp**: The number of warehouse receipts is 168,570, a month - on - month increase of 5,134 and a year - on - year decrease of 203,137 [86]. - **Cotton**: The number of warehouse receipts is 11,950, a month - on - month increase of 303 and a year - on - year increase of 4,011 [86]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figures are presented in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and domestic sugar mills are gradually closing. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to lightly position long orders [4]. - The news of overseas bleached softwood pulp production cuts supports the current valuation of softwood pulp prices. The decline of pulp prices is limited, but the rebound space still needs to focus on the sustainability of production cuts. It is recommended to temporarily exit short positions and wait and see [5]. - The spot price of offset printing paper is stable, and the cost support is weakening. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis. It is recommended to try to short - match on rallies in the short term [7]. - Macroeconomic sentiment still disturbs the cotton market. The mid - term support for domestic cotton prices exists, but the short - term price may show a platform consolidation. It is recommended to hold long orders of the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - The low inventory of apples continues to support, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to reduce long orders on rallies [9]. - For jujubes, it is recommended to exit short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract. If holding long futures, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Fresh Fruit and Nuts Futures Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2605: Reduce long orders on rallies. The supply - side support remains, and the overall futures price is expected to move up. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [19]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short term. The production reduction expectation may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory starts to peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. 3.1.2 Soft Commodity Futures Strategy Recommendation - Sugar 2605: Go long. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the supply - demand fundamentals in China are improving. The support range is 5300 - 5320, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5650 [19]. - Pulp 2605: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - market price of hardwood pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the supply - demand improvement of bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [19]. - Offset Printing Paper 2605: Trade within the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, focus on the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [19]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long orders cautiously. The long - term bullish expectation remains, and the mid - term support is unchanged. However, the rise of the outer - market price has not been confirmed, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term price may continue to consolidate. The support range is 14000 - 14200, and the pressure range is 15800 - 16000 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,800 tons. As of February 26, 2026, the inventory was 4.9448 million tons, a decrease of 370,300 tons compared with before the Spring Festival and a year - on - year decrease of 308,900 tons [20]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in cold storage is stable, and there are some packaging operations in the cold storage. The trading volume in the cold storage is not large, and foreign traders mainly purchase medium and small fruits. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, the number of merchants has increased, and they mainly purchase high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the procurement is difficult. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the sales situation is good, and the price remains stable [20][21][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of March 5th, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,817 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is slowly recovering after the Spring Festival, with general replenishment by downstream and slow de - stocking [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market - The ongoing Middle East conflict has driven up international crude oil and diesel prices, which may effectively support ethanol prices and be bullish for sugar. - The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) said that India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season may be 28.3 million tons, a 4.4% reduction from the previous estimate. - The total sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season may reach 31.5 million tons, of which about 3.2 million tons will be converted into ethanol production. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181.29 million tons, a reduction of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast. - The consulting firm Datagro expects a supply gap of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. - As of March 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in the Indian state of Maharashtra, 113 sugar mills have stopped production, and 97 are still operating, a year - on - year decrease of 102. - As of March 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi, 3 sugar mills have stopped production, a year - on - year decrease of 44. - As of the week of March 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 245,034 contracts [26]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market After the Spring Festival, Chinese buyers returned to the market. In February, the price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton to $590 - $600 per ton. Sellers have announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which has made buyers cautious. The domestic market transaction is weak, many factories have shut down, and the port inventory has increased by 205,000 tons. In the BSK market, suppliers hope to push up prices before the northern hemisphere's spring maintenance, but buyers are seeking discounts and reducing import orders. The prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK pulp remain stable [28]. 3.2.5 Offset Printing Paper Market Last Thursday, the inventory days of offset printing paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points this week. Some paper mills' publishing orders have not been fully executed, and they continue to reduce inventory, but the new orders in the market are limited, and the overall de - stocking speed of the industry has decreased. This week, the operating load rate of the offset printing paper industry is 57.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points this week [29]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In February, Brazil's cotton export volume was 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. - As of the week of March 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0442 million tons, accounting for 100.5% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 10,287 | - 29 | - 0.28% | | Jujube 2605 | 9,060 | 35 | 0.39% | | Sugar 2605 | 5,436 | 65 | 1.21% | | Pulp 2605 | 5,300 | - 22 | - 0.41% | | Cotton 2605 | 15,285 | - 10 | - 0.07% | [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5,520 | 130 | - 500 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5,300 | 20 | - 1,250 | | Offset Printing Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4,350 | 0 | - 700 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16,632 | - 46 | 1,797 | [36] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 2,063 | 362 | 2,530 | Bullish oscillation | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 380 | - 25 | 40 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 13 | 0 | - 152 | Oscillatory fluctuation | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 55 | - 5 | 115 | Bearish oscillation | Short on rallies | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 4,031 | 162 | - 1,321 | | Sugar | 14,948 | - 38 | - 9,489 | | Pulp | 163,436 | 9,115 | - 202,494 | | Cotton | 11,647 | 204 | 3,843 | [89] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a short - position strategic allocation. Before Libya's mid - year production increase, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already fully includes the current geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. - For urea, despite the expected increase in downstream demand, the supply - demand is in a state of both growth. Considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive impact on the quota. The fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - For rubber, in the short term, treat BR as strong. If BR turns weak, consider short - selling RU. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and make quick trades. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is shifting to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price is rising. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand is recovering seasonally [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price is rising. The supply pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand is rebounding seasonally. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and the domestic market is entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to decline, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in March. The port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 112.10 yuan/barrel, a 16.99% increase, at 771.80 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 660.00 yuan/ton, a 16.98% increase, to 4548.00 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 656.00 yuan/ton, a 14.99% increase, to 5032.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a short - position strategic allocation. Before Libya's mid - year production increase, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 340 yuan/ton, 345 yuan/ton, 265 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, and 185 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract changed by 303.00 yuan/ton, at 2830 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 495 yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: It already fully includes the current geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by - 20 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was reported at - 55 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 75 yuan/ton, at 1905 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Despite the expected increase in downstream demand, the supply - demand is in a state of both growth. Considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive impact on the quota. The fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The sharp rise in crude oil due to the macro - situation drove up the price of downstream butadiene, and the price of butadiene rubber (BR) increased significantly. The increase in BR was much greater than that of natural rubber, which had a positive impact on the prices of rubber RU and NR. The market is changing rapidly, driven by macro factors and funds. The future trend of rubber is uncertain. Bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand in China, while bears think the macro - situation is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, 34.11 percentage points higher than last week and 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, 35.17 percentage points higher than last week and 8.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The overall factory has resumed production, but the export orders in the geopolitically affected areas have slowed down. As of February 23, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 136.6 million tons, a 7 - million - ton increase from the previous month, a 5.4% increase. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons compared with before the holiday. The spot prices of Thai standard mixed rubber, STR20, and STR20 mixed increased, and the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and cis - polybutadiene in North China also increased [11][12][13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, treat BR as strong. If BR turns weak, consider short - selling RU. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and make quick trades. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 190 yuan, at 5466 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5700 (+680) yuan/ton, the basis was 234 (+490) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (-25) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 (+225) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 870 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 655 (+21) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous month, including 80.7% for the calcium carbide method and 82.2% for the ethylene method, both with a 1% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a 18.7% increase from the previous month. The factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (-4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [16]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is shifting to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 10000 yuan/ton, a 2325 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8155 yuan/ton, a 2325 - yuan/ton increase. The pure benzene basis was 1845 yuan/ton, a 1716 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price of styrene was 12000 yuan/ton, a 3000 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 9587 yuan/ton, a 678 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 2413 yuan/ton, a 2322 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 191.62 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan/ton increase. The non - integrated device profit of EB was 661 yuan/ton, an 888.25 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, a 1.75 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, a 2.10% increase, the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, a 46.59% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a 1.20% decrease [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7944 yuan/ton, a 253 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price was 9400 yuan/ton, a 1925 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 1456 yuan/ton, a 1672 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 53.62 million tons, a 4.35 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 5.77 million tons, a 1.08 - million - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 188 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan/ton decrease [23]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is rising. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand is recovering seasonally [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8034 yuan/ton, a 237 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, a 1600 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 1316 yuan/ton, a 1363 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 65.51 million tons, an 8.48 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, the trader inventory was 21.26 million tons, a 3.71 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a 0.72 - million - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 90 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan/ton increase. The PP5 - 9 spread was 349 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan/ton decrease [25]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is rising. The supply pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand is rebounding seasonally. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 358 yuan, at 9028 yuan. The PX CFR rose 267 US dollars, at 1346 US dollars. The basis was 1701 yuan (+1787), and the 5 - 7 spread was 304 yuan (+52). The PX load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease, and the Asian load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2.5 - million - ton device was under maintenance, Daxie stopped production, South Korea's S - oil 770,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and GS's 550,000 - ton device reduced its load. The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. In February, South Korea exported 41.5 million tons of PX to China, a 0.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 4.64 billion tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 301 US dollars (+20), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (-11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 92 US dollars (-54) [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 246 yuan, at 6316 yuan. The East China spot price rose 1335 yuan, at 7200 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (+22), and the 5 - 9 spread was 246 yuan (+46). The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 259.7 million tons, a 9.5 - million - ton increase. The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 72 yuan to 162 yuan, and the on - market processing fee increased by 11 yuan to 394 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 220 yuan, at 4597 yuan. The East China spot price rose 546 yuan, at 4813 yuan. The basis was 37 yuan (+48), and the 5 - 9 spread was 106 yuan (+46). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 5.7% decrease, including 83% for the syngas - to - ethylene - glycol method, a 1% decrease, and 67.9% for the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol method, an 8.3% decrease. Many domestic and foreign devices were under maintenance or reduced their loads. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The import arrival forecast was 10.8 million tons, and the East China departure volume on March 8 was 1.38 million tons. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, a 6.6 - million - ton increase. The naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 1794 yuan, the domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 918 yuan, and the coal - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 273 yuan. The price of ethylene increased to 850 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 580 yuan [34]. - **Strategy**: The foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and the domestic market is entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to decline, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in March. The port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Bullish with fluctuations**: Cotton, soybean oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, synthetic rubber [1][5][7][9][17][18] - **Bearish with fluctuations**: Live pigs, sugar [11][19] - **Neutral with fluctuations**: Palm oil, rapeseed oil, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, pulp, offset paper, logs [5][6][13][16][20][21][23] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products. Overall, the agricultural market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, weather, and macro - economic conditions. Different products show different market trends due to their unique supply - demand structures and external factors [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1.油脂 - **View**: Soybean oil is bullish with fluctuations, palm oil is neutral with fluctuations, and rapeseed oil is neutral with fluctuations. - **Logic**: In the international market, the US biodiesel policy and optimistic demand drive the US soybean complex to rebound. The US Department of Agriculture has adjusted upward the forecast for US soybean planting area, production, and demand in 26/27, and increased the expected usage of soybean oil in biodiesel. In China, concerns about soybean customs clearance time may lead to a faster decline in soybean oil inventory, boosting bullish sentiment. Palm oil is affected by the rise of US soybean oil and crude oil, but its weak export performance and the decline of crude oil limit its upward momentum. Rapeseed oil is supported by crude oil and US soybean oil, but the increase in domestic rapeseed procurement and the expected relaxation of future supply will make its price fluctuate with the overall trend of oils and fats [5]. - **Outlook**: The supply of oilseeds is relatively abundant, and the external market is bullish due to biodiesel expectations. The domestic market is expected to follow the upward trend after the holiday. It is recommended to consider buying at stage - lows [6]. 3.1.2.蛋白粕 - **View**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bullish with fluctuations. - **Logic**: Internationally, the February supply - demand report is neutral - bearish, and the global soybean supply is expected to be abundant. The US February Agricultural Outlook Forum anticipates an increase in US soybean planting area in 2026. The US soybean market is supported by new Chinese purchases, but the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans may limit the upward space of soybean meal prices. Domestically, after the holiday, the margin is lowered, and the market trading volume increases. The slow recovery of oil - mill operating rates and the tight supply support the futures price. However, the off - season consumption after the holiday, high inventory levels of downstream feed and breeding enterprises, and the potential impact of the concentrated arrival of South American soybeans and state - reserve auctions need to be noted. The supply of rapeseed meal will be tight before late February, but the supply pressure will increase in the second quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, it is the off - season for consumption, and the supply and demand of soybean and rapeseed meal are both weak, with increased capital interference [8]. 3.1.3.玉米 - **View**: Corn is bullish with fluctuations. - **Logic**: Before the holiday, the futures market was strong, driving up the spot market. The snow in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang has reduced the storage pressure of on - the - ground corn, and there is no pressure for a large - scale supply in the short term. Downstream enterprises have a demand for replenishing inventory after the holiday, which has slightly increased the purchase price. However, the arrival of imported grains after the holiday may suppress the price of domestic corn in the sales area. The key is to follow the game between farmers' selling rhythm and downstream replenishing rhythm [9][10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the spot market is slowly recovering, and the purchase price is slightly bullish. It is necessary to focus on the downstream replenishing rhythm and traders' inventory - building rhythm [10]. 3.1.4.生猪 - **View**: Live pigs are bearish with fluctuations. - **Logic**: In the short term, the daily slaughter volume in February has increased compared to January. In the medium term, the supply of pigs is still abundant, and the pressure of oversupply is expected to last until April 2026. In the long term, the sow inventory decreased from July to December 2025, but the increase in breeding profits in January 2026 has weakened the motivation for production reduction, and the sow inventory increased in January 2026. After the holiday, it is the off - season for consumption, and the average weight of pigs and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens are decreasing [11]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, it is the off - season for consumption, and the supply of live pigs is still in excess. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities. It is expected that the pig cycle will gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [12]. 3.1.5.天然橡胶 - **View**: Natural rubber is neutral with fluctuations. - **Logic**: The rubber price continued to rise, and the market sentiment is still positive. The January natural rubber export data from Thailand has further boosted the bullish sentiment, but this is mainly due to the low production caused by weather problems in Thailand from October to November last year and the high - base effect of December. Although the inventory pressure is relatively large, the market is about to enter the low - production period, and the downstream demand remains stable, so the market is still bullish. However, the short - term upward space is limited, and it is not recommended to chase the rise [13][16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables are limited, but the capital attention continues to increase, and the market will maintain a fluctuating trend [16]. 3.1.6.合成橡胶 - **View**: Synthetic rubber is bullish with fluctuations. - **Logic**: The BR futures did not follow the upward trend of natural rubber because of the weakening transaction of butadiene. However, the medium - term core logic remains unchanged, that is, the market is trading on the expectation of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026. The price of butadiene has been rising recently, and the market sentiment is strong [17]. - **Outlook**: The improvement of the butadiene supply - demand pattern is relatively certain, but it needs to be adjusted due to the rapid short - term rise. The medium - term trend will be bullish with fluctuations [17]. 3.1.7.棉花 - **View**: Cotton is bullish with fluctuations. - **Logic**: After the Spring Festival, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton has increased its positions by more than 156,000 lots. During the Spring Festival, both the macro and industrial aspects have positive factors. The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum expects a decrease in global cotton production and inventory - to - sales ratio in the 26/27 season, and a decrease in the US cotton planting area intention. The expectation of improved supply - demand in the global market has boosted market confidence. In the long term, the international cotton price will rise, and the domestic market is also expected to be bullish with fluctuations. However, the upward space is limited by the domestic - foreign price difference and planting subsidy policies. In the short term, the 05 contract has reached an important level, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [1][18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions in the short term and go long on dips in the long term [18]. 3.1.8.白糖 - **View**: Sugar is bearish with fluctuations. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the domestic and international sugar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to have an oversupply in the global sugar market, with major producers such as Brazil, Thailand, India, and China all expected to increase production. Although there are some positive factors, there is no sign of a trend reversal. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sugar production data of major northern - hemisphere producers [19]. - **Outlook**: Due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the sugar price still has a downward driving force. It is recommended to short on rebounds [19]. 3.1.9.纸浆 - **View**: Pulp is neutral with fluctuations. - **Logic**: The pulp futures continued to rise in a positive trading atmosphere. In the short term, the demand in the industrial chain is still weak after the holiday, and the impact on the pulp price is limited. However, in the future, with the arrival of the peak demand season, the demand is expected to increase, which is positive for the price. The unchanged quotation of softwood pulp last time has a negative effect, but this factor has been priced in. The overall supply - demand situation is tilted towards the positive side of demand. The impact of the increase in import costs in the previous half - year has not been fully reflected [20]. - **Outlook**: The expectation of improved demand is positive, but the unchanged supply quotation is negative. The pulp market will maintain a range - bound trend [20]. 3.1.10.双胶纸 - **View**: Offset paper is neutral with fluctuations. - **Logic**: The offset paper market has maintained a narrow - range fluctuation. After the holiday, the market has not restarted, and the procurement demand of downstream printing factories and publishing units is limited. The market supply is abundant, and the industry profit is under pressure. The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is no clear upward or downward driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of work of downstream printing factories in March [21]. - **Outlook**: Before the holiday, the trading was weak. In the short term, it is expected to be stable, and the market will fluctuate within a range [21]. 3.1.11.原木 - **View**: Logs are neutral with fluctuations. - **Logic**: The rise of the real - estate and black - commodity sectors has boosted the log futures market. After the holiday, the market is still in the process of recovery, and the spot price is stable. The external market price has bottomed out and stabilized, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. The suspension of some交割 warehouses and the increase in external market quotations are positive for the market. In the short term, the market will stabilize with fluctuations. In the medium term, there may be a risk of inventory accumulation after the peak season in the first - quarter, and the market may weaken without new positive factors [23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is no new driving force, and the market will maintain a range - bound trend due to the loose fundamentals [23]. 3.2.品种数据监测 - The report lists various agricultural products such as oils and fats, protein meals, corn, live pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but does not provide specific data analysis content [24][43][56][74][116][129][143][166]. 3.3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数** - The composite index, the Commodity 20 Index, and the industrial products index all showed an upward trend on February 25, 2026, with increases of 0.56%, 0.64%, and 0.63% respectively [181]. - **板块指数** - The agricultural product index on February 25, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.69%, a 5 - day increase of 1.38%, a 1 - month increase of 1.01%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.14% [183].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is neutral [6] Group 2: Core View - Overseas uncertainties still exist, including the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis and the uncertainty of US tariffs. The zinc price first rose and then fell on the first trading day after the Spring Festival. The Spring Festival inventory accumulation is similar to previous years, and attention should be paid to the post - festival de - stocking rhythm. The low TC at the mine end supports the price, the sulfuric acid price is rising, and the comprehensive smelting loss is narrowing. If the inventory cannot continue to rise after the festival, there is an optimistic long - term expectation for macro and actual consumption, and opportunities for buying and hedging at low prices should be sought [5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - The LME zinc spot premium is -$31.25 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 310 yuan/ton to 24,650 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -40 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 300 yuan/ton to 24,610 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 320 yuan/ton to 24,610 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On February 24, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,205 yuan/ton, closed at 24,625 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 59,306 lots, and the open interest was 35,129 lots. The highest price was 24,835 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,205 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of February 24, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 209,700 tons, a change of 49,400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 101,250 tons, a change of -300 tons from the previous trading day [4]