投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-26 郑棉延续增仓上行，短期关注上方压力 油脂：豆油震荡偏强 蛋白粕：盘面增仓上行，资金扰动加剧 玉米：节后复工补库，玉米延续偏强 生猪：节后消费缓慢恢复，现货依旧偏弱运行 天然橡胶：盘面偏多情绪维持 合成橡胶：原料成交转弱，盘面震荡运行 棉花：延续增仓上行，短期关注上方压力 白糖：巴西出口仍居高位，糖价中长期震荡偏弱 纸浆：偏暖金融市场氛围带动纸浆上涨 双胶纸：双胶纸短期震荡寻找方向 原木：地产板块上涨提振，原木盘面走强 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 棉花观点：延续增仓上行，短期关注上方压力 逻辑：春节后两个交易日，郑棉主力合约增仓超15.6万手，昨日盘面最高 触及15500元/吨。春节期间，宏观与产业均现利好因素。宏观面，据新华 社，特朗普政府依IEEPA实施的大规模关税被裁定无效，美对中加征关税 税率下降。产业方面，USDA农业展望论坛预计，26/27年度，全球棉花产 量下降3.2%，库销比下降6.3%，美棉库销比同比下降6.2%，NCC预估26/ 27年度美棉意向植棉面积下降3. ...

重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-31.25美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化310元/吨至24650元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-40元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日300元/吨至24610元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-80元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日320元/吨至24610元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-80元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-24沪锌主力合约开于24205元/吨，收于24625元/吨，较前一交易日180元/吨，全天交易日成交 59306手，全天交易日持仓35129手，日内价格最高点达到24835元/吨，最低点达到24205元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-25 关注节后去库节奏 库存方面：截至2026-02-24，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为20.97万吨，较上期变化4.94万吨。截止2026-02-24，LME 锌库存为101250吨，较上一交易日变化-300吨。 市场分析 海外不确定扰动仍然存在，一方面中东地缘危机升级，另一方面美国关税仍存不确定性，特朗普前期关税政策被 裁定越权，而特朗普仍欲将关税政策升级。节后第一交易日锌价先扬后抑。基本面方面春 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Partial manufacturers' price cuts led to better order collection, with agricultural demand following up and industrial rigid demand declining. It is expected that prices will remain firm before the Spring Festival. In January, some gas - based and technological transformation enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers continued, and manufacturers started pre - holiday order collection. The off - season storage procurement is in the later stage, and 10% of off - season storage supplies are expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer production was slightly affected by environmental protection, but overall it was at a moderately high level. The demand from downstream fertilizer users was approaching, and the shipment improved, with an expected decline in production before the Spring Festival. The melamine plant resumed production, increasing the rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea plants decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. Influenced by the situation in Iran, international urea prices rose. There is no new information on the domestic export quota, and future attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report shows the prices of Shandong and Henan urea small particles, Henan basis, urea main - contract closing price, and price spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 [1][6][7] 2. Urea Output - It presents the weekly urea output and urea plant maintenance loss [19][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production cost, production profit, and capacity utilization rates (including overall, coal - based, and natural - gas - based) of urea are shown [21][31][34] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - It includes the FOB prices of small - and large - sized urea in the Baltic, Southeast Asia, and China, as well as the price differences and export profits [38][41][51] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of outstanding orders are presented [52][53] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the factory inventory, port inventory, raw - material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, the number of urea warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main urea contract [54][59][62] Strategies - Unilateral: Volatile - Inter - period: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread at low levels - Inter - commodity: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish allocation; EG2603 - EG2605 reverse spread; long PTA short MEG [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG price dropped rapidly, but the basis rebounded. The intraday ethylene glycol market trended weakly, and polyester factories actively participated in price fixing at low levels. The spot basis in the market strengthened. The production profits of ethylene - made EG and coal - based syngas - made EG decreased. The inventory data from different sources showed different trends, and the main port was expected to continue accumulating inventory. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol was at a high level and continued to increase, and the overseas import pressure would ease after February. The demand was expected to weaken with the approaching Spring Festival. Overall, the market was expected to be weak in a volatile manner [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3674 yuan/ton (a change of - 81 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.16%), and the spot price in the East China market was 3595 yuan/ton (a change of - 43 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.18%). The spot basis in East China was - 112 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 77 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 4 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was - 927 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton) [1] 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.4 Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.5 Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 79.5 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.7 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 64.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2.8 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is relatively high, and the main ports are expected to continue accumulating inventory [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soft commodity sector, the overall supply of sugar is relatively abundant, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures may continue to be weak in the near term. The upward space of pulp is limited, and there is support at the bottom. The upward space of double - offset paper futures is also restricted, and cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium - term with short - term adjustments. - For the fresh fruit sector, the apple futures may experience high - level adjustments in the short - term and support in the medium - term. The jujube futures may have a short - term bottom - support and a transition to a supply - demand balance situation [2][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend to reduce long positions. The support from factors such as new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak - value decline year - on - year still exists, but the suppression of insufficient consumption growth has increased. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [20]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term buying on dips. The expected reduction in production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has started to decline seasonally. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Sugar 2605**: Recommend short - term short positions with a light position. The international and domestic sugar supplies are relatively abundant. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5270 - 5300 [20]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend short positions within the range. Although there are still positive factors in supply and warehouse - receipt cost increase, the downstream performance has been average recently, which may put pressure on the market. The support range is 5200 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [20]. - **Double - offset paper 2605**: Recommend range - bound operations. The spot market is stable, and the basis has expanded to support the market temporarily. However, the subsequent publication orders may weaken, and the price increase is limited due to low capacity utilization. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4300 - 4350 [20]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend to reduce long positions. The foreign market is operating at a low level, while the domestic market has positive expectations. The far - end positive expectations are strong, but the short - term sentiment has retreated, and the price may be adjusted. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 15, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 655,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 488,000 tons [21]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Shandong and Shaanxi production areas are stable. In Shandong, the sales volume has slightly increased, and in Shaanxi, the cold - storage packaging volume is acceptable during the Spring Festival stocking period [21][22]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production areas has basically ended, and the market is expected to enter a peak sales period with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market - In December 2025, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. From January 1 to 20, 2026, Brazil exported 1.4366 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year increase of 9.09%. - As of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 165,711 contracts, indicating strong bearish sentiment. As of January 15, 2026, the sugar production in India reached 15.885 million tons, higher than the same period last year. From the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to January 17, 2026, the sugar production in Thailand decreased by 16.09% year - on - year [25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The Chinese pulp market demand has significantly slowed down. The futures market fluctuations have made traders and investors cautious. The price of NBSK has dropped, and traders expect further price declines and have raised the forward resale quotes [29]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market As of Thursday this week, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed month - on - month. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed has decreased, and the operating load rate was 57.43%, with a marginal increase [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In December 2025, China's cotton cloth imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month in terms of meters, weight, and amount. The export volume and amount of cotton yarn decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. - In December 2025, India's textile exports decreased year - on - year, while clothing exports increased. Japan's cotton imports reached the highest level since September 2024. As of January 15, 2026, the new - season seed - cotton listing volume in Pakistan was basically the same as the previous year [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9371, up 26 or 0.28% [32]. - Jujube 2605 closed at 8700, down 115 or 1.30% [32]. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5183, down 61 or 1.16% [32]. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5376, up 14 or 0.26% [32]. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14525, down 20 or 0.14% [32]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan [40]. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [40]. - The spot price of sugar was 5330 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan [40]. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5400 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1180 yuan [40]. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4350 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan [40]. - The spot price of cotton was 15856 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1076 yuan [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis content is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, including the basis of Apple 5 - month, Jujube main contract, Sugar main continuous contract, Pulp main continuous contract, and Cotton 5 - month [51][54][57]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple 5 - 10 spread**: The current value is 1249, a month - on - month decrease of 121 and a year - on - year increase of 1769. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the recommended strategy is to buy on dips [59]. - **Jujube 5 - 9 spread**: The current value is - 240, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 90. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. - **Sugar 5 - 9 spread**: The current value is - 17, a month - on - month decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 149. It is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [59]. - **Cotton 5 - 9 spread**: The current value is - 175, a month - on - month decrease of 10 and a year - on - year decrease of 10. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical analysis content is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, including the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and short position changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton [66][70][77]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation - The warehouse - receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of jujubes is 3298, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 706 [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of sugar is 14439, a month - on - month increase of 313 and a year - on - year decrease of 9692 [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of pulp is 139554, a month - on - month decrease of 30 and a year - on - year decrease of 201310 [91]. - The warehouse - receipt volume of cotton is 9647, a month - on - month decrease of 11 and a year - on - year increase of 3167 [91]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific numerical analysis content is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, including the trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options [94][101][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - produce sectors have different market logics and trading strategies. For example, Zheng sugar has limited downside space and is recommended for light - position short - term long positions; pulp has limited upside space and is advised to go short on rallies [3]. - In the fresh - produce sector, apples are expected to have a slow upward trend in the overall price center, and long positions can be held cautiously; jujubes are in a situation of supply and demand both being strong, and different trading strategies are proposed according to different positions [7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh - produce Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, short - term buying on dips is recommended, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [17]. - **Soft - commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, light - position short - term long positions are recommended, with a support range of 5200 - 5230 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, short - position operations within the range are recommended, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700. For Double - offset Paper 2605, range operations are recommended, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, long positions can be held cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in the main producing areas decreased year - on - year. The spot price in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable, and the sales area was also stable [18]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 11, the sample - point inventory decreased month - on - month. The acquisition in the producing areas was basically over, and the market was expected to enter a peak sales period with the approach of the festival [21]. - **Sugar Market**: India, Thailand, and Brazil have different production and export situations. The global sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the international sugar price is expected to be weak [22]. - **Pulp Market**: The price of needle and broad - leaf pulp increased, and the supply pressure gradually eased, but the upward space was limited due to the weak downstream market [3]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The operating rate of double - offset paper enterprises increased, the inventory decreased, but the overall demand was still under pressure [4]. - **Cotton Market**: In December 2025, the export volume of Bangladeshi clothing and Chinese textiles and clothing had different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2605, Jujube 2605, Sugar 2605, Pulp 2605, and Cotton 2605 are provided [31]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are presented [36]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread is expected to be oscillating strongly, and buying on dips is recommended. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is expected to be range - oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread is expected to be oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread is expected to be oscillating weakly, and selling on rallies is recommended [55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [84]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references.

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Terminal demand for asphalt is gradually declining, while spot prices remain generally stable. The rigid demand for asphalt continues to decline, suppressing the sentiment in the asphalt spot market. Currently, there is a tug - of - war between cost - side support and weak demand. After pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan crude oil supply, the market has shifted to a volatile trend [1]. - In the context of escalating South American situation and the US intention to strengthen control over Venezuelan resources, the expectation of tightened supply of Venezuelan crude oil to domestic refineries is continuously materializing. If Venezuelan crude oil that originally flowed to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the US, domestic refineries will need to seek alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, South America, etc. after depleting inventory raw materials (expected to last until March), which will make cost and product yield changes more complex and require dynamic tracking [1]. Market Analysis - On January 13th, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,125 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.66% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 207,908 lots, a decrease of 14,617 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 280,447 lots, an increase of 59,521 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt are as follows: 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 3,020 - 3,240 yuan/ton in Shandong; 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton in South China; 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in North China declined slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions remained basically stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Buy the main BU contract on dips, and early bottom - fishing long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [2]. - Inter - delivery spread: Buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [2]. - Futures - cash: None [2]. - Options: None [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market outlook for 2026, based on insights from 31 institutions covering 47 trading varieties across various sectors including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Products & Soft Commodities - Cotton prices are expected to rise, but the upward potential is limited due to seasonal supply pressures and demand recovery dynamics [7][8]. - The core logic for cotton includes a lack of significant growth in domestic production, seasonal impacts on textile industry operations, and limited expansion in planting area due to policy guidance [9][10]. - Price predictions for cotton range from 13,500 to 15,500 CNY per ton, with strategies suggesting buying near the lower end of this range [11][12]. Group 2: Sugar - The sugar market is anticipated to experience a "low first, high later" trend, driven by the recovery of domestic production and weak consumer demand [55][56]. - The core logic indicates that ethanol will play a crucial role in balancing supply and demand, with an overall surplus expected but not catastrophic [57][58]. - Price predictions for sugar are set between 5,100 and 5,700 CNY per ton, with strategies focusing on high selling and low buying opportunities within this range [59][60]. Group 3: Rubber - Natural rubber is expected to remain in a wide fluctuation pattern, while synthetic rubber faces downward pressure [102][106]. - The core contradiction lies between the tight supply of natural rubber and the stable but uninspiring demand, while synthetic rubber faces pressure from increased production capacity [103][104]. - Price predictions for natural rubber range from 13,000 to 17,000 CNY per ton, with strategies suggesting buying near the lower end of this range [105][106]. Group 4: Apples - The apple market is projected to be weak in the short term but may strengthen in the long term due to quality disparities and competition from alternative fruits [140][141]. - The core logic indicates that high-quality apples will maintain strong prices due to scarcity, while lower-quality apples face pressure from consumer demand [142][143]. - Price predictions suggest a high-level fluctuation, with potential adjustments before and after the Spring Festival [144][145]. Group 5: Red Dates - The red date market is expected to operate under a bearish outlook due to oversupply and weak demand [180][181]. - The core logic highlights the pressure from high inventories of old dates and the impact of new crop quality on market dynamics [182][183]. - Price predictions for red dates are set between 8,500 and 9,500 CNY per ton, with strategies focusing on selling high and cautious buying [185][186]. Group 6: Pulp - The pulp market is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations without a clear trend, influenced by high inventories and weak demand [204][210]. - The core contradiction involves the ongoing supply pressure from domestic production and the structural differentiation in demand [205][206]. - Price predictions suggest a key resistance level around 5,500 CNY per ton, with strategies focusing on high selling and low buying opportunities [208][209]. Group 7: Live Pigs - The live pig market is expected to see a "low first, high later" trend, with significant supply pressures in the first half of the year [234][235]. - The core logic indicates that high supply during the off-season will lead to significant inventory pressure, while a seasonal recovery in demand is expected in the second half [234][235]. - The overall market is projected to transition from severe oversupply to a more balanced state by the end of the year [235].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC contract V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly; for iron ore 12605, short - selling is recommended; corn C2603 is expected to fluctuate strongly and buying on dips is advised; silver AG2604 has a complex situation with price fluctuations and corresponding operation suggestions [3]. - In the stock index sector, after the index breaks through the previous high, there are signs of concentrated main lines and narrowing heat. It is recommended to take partial profit on single - side long futures, hold bull spread combinations, and consider building covered call combinations on dips. Among them, IC components are more in line with the main - line structure and perform stronger [3]. - In the bond market, after continuous decline, there is a slight rebound due to the shock of the equity market and loose capital. However, the bond market sentiment is still suppressed by factors such as the spring rally of equities, inflation recovery expectations, and supply disturbances. It is still difficult to say that it has stabilized. For single - side strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and for curve strategies, it is still inclined to steepen in the medium term [3]. - For precious metals, gold long positions should be held above $4300, and attention should be paid to the rise of the gold - silver ratio. For silver, it is recommended to keep a light - position long strategy above $70. For platinum and palladium, it is recommended to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average, and short the platinum - palladium ratio can be tried [3]. - The shipping index EC2602 is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term; steel prices will maintain a fluctuating trend, with specific price ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coils [3]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as copper prices adjusting in a fluctuating manner, and corresponding operation suggestions for aluminum, zinc, etc. [3]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon futures have limit - down, and lithium carbonate has wide - range fluctuations. Different products have different operation suggestions [3]. - In the chemical industry, different chemical products have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as PX and PTA fluctuating in specific ranges and having low - buying strategies in the medium term [3]. - In the agricultural products sector, different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar are expected to have range - bound fluctuations, and different operation suggestions are given for each [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Index breakthrough leads to concentrated main lines and narrowing heat. It is recommended to take partial profit on single - side long futures, hold bull spread combinations, and consider building covered call combinations on dips. IC components perform stronger [3]. Bond Market - After continuous decline, there is a slight rebound due to equity market shock and loose capital. But sentiment is suppressed, and it is difficult to say it has stabilized. Single - side strategies: wait and see; Curve strategies: inclined to steepen in the medium term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: hold long positions above $4300, pay attention to the rise of the gold - silver ratio; Silver: keep a light - position long strategy above $70; Platinum and palladium: buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average, short the platinum - palladium ratio can be tried [3]. Shipping - The shipping index EC2602 is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term [3]. Steel - Steel prices maintain a fluctuating trend, with rebar fluctuating in the range of 3000 - 3200 and hot - rolled coils in the range of 3150 - 3350 [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Different non - ferrous metals have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as copper price adjustment, and corresponding operations for aluminum, zinc, etc. [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures have limit - down, lithium carbonate has wide - range fluctuations, and different products have different operation suggestions [3]. Chemical Industry - Different chemical products have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as PX and PTA fluctuating in specific ranges and having low - buying strategies in the medium term [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar are expected to have range - bound fluctuations, and different operation suggestions are given for each [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar spot prices have slightly recovered due to concerns about a year - on - year decline in Guangxi's sugar production. Globally, sugar is in a supply - surplus situation. The SR2605 contract is recommended to hold positions, with support at 5180 - 5200 and resistance at 5350 - 5400 [4]. - **Pulp**: Pulp supply pressure is gradually alleviating, but overseas producer inventory is at a two - year high. The upward space for pulp is limited, and it is supported by the increase in delivery costs after the reduction of Russian needle pulp warehouse receipts. The 2605 contract has resistance at 5700 - 5800 and support at 5400 - 5450 [4][5]. - **Offset Paper**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the offset paper spot market remained stable. The increase in paper mill inventory and the large fluctuation of raw material pulp prices limit the upward space of the offset paper futures. The 2605 contract has support at 3900 - 4000 and resistance at 4300 - 4500 [6][7]. - **Cotton**: Globally and in the US, cotton supply is expected to be abundant, but the marginal negative impact is decreasing. In China, there are expectations of tight supply at the end of the year and a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. The 05 contract is expected to have a rising center of gravity, but there may be a short - term adjustment [9]. - **Apples**: The apple 05 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor high - quality fruit rate, and rising purchase prices. However, due to concerns about consumption, the upward momentum has slowed. It is expected to remain in a high - range [11]. - **Jujubes**: Jujube spot prices are stable, and futures prices have rebounded. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the new - jujube production reduction expectation has cooled down. The 2605 contract is recommended to close short positions below 9000, and investors can consider a reverse spread strategy [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with support at 8800 - 8900 and resistance at 10000 - 10200; for Jujube 2605, it is recommended to buy on dips, with support at 8700 - 9000 and resistance at 9500 - 9800 [21]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 5180 - 5200 and resistance at 5350 - 5400; for Pulp 2605, it is recommended to be long in the range, with support at 5300 - 5400 and resistance at 5600 - 5800; for Offset Paper 2605, it is recommended to wait and see, with support at 3900 - 4000 and resistance at 4200 - 4300; for Cotton 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with support at 13500 - 13600 and resistance at 15400 - 15500 [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In November 2025, fresh apple exports increased by 51.28% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased compared to the pre - New Year's Day level. The spot price in the producing area was stable, and the sales volume increased, while the low - quality goods in the sales area were weak [22][23]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 4, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 1.57% month - on - month and increased by 38.34% year - on - year. The acquisition in Xinjiang is basically over, and the arrival in the mainland has decreased. The market is in a traditional sales season [24]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. In the 2025/26 season, Thailand's sugar production decreased. In China, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan and Guangdong has increased, and Inner Mongolia's sugar production is expected to increase [24][25]. - **Pulp Market**: As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, the price of BHK pulp in Asia increased by 20 US dollars per ton [29]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of offset paper increased, and the social demand was weak. The start - up rate increased due to publication orders [30]. - **Cotton Market**: In December, Brazil's cotton exports reached a record high, and Vietnam's cotton imports increased. As of January 5, 2026, the cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Bonded Area decreased year - on - year. The Xinjiang Cotton Planting Industry Chain Conference will be held on January 9 [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Apple 2605, Jujube 2605, Sugar 2605, Pulp 2605, and Cotton 2605 all decreased on the day, with declines of - 0.54%, - 0.82%, - 0.04%, - 1.64%, and - 1.96% respectively [32]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of apples remained unchanged month - on - month and increased year - on - year; jujubes decreased month - on - month and year - on - year; sugar remained unchanged month - on - month and decreased year - on - year; pulp remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; offset paper remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; cotton increased month - on - month and year - on - year [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [54]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread: The current value is 1080, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 and a year - on - year increase of 1568. It is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread: The current value is 55, with a month - on - month increase of 90 and a year - on - year decrease of 535. It is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 11, with a month - on - month increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 137. It is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 190, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 40. It is expected to be volatile and weak, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [60]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [67]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - Jujube: 2263 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 888. - Sugar: 6005 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 8358. - Pulp: 135,506 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 202,275. - Cotton: 7189 warehouse receipts, with a month - on - month increase of 140 and a year - on - year increase of 2847 [93]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [97].