1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and operation suggestions for various commodities on August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Core Views - The Sino-US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the central political bureau meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, affecting the financial and commodity markets [3] - The inflation in the US remained moderate, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar declined, which had an impact on the prices of gold, silver and other commodities [3] Group 3: Variety Analysis and Operation Suggestions Equity Index - The Sino - US joint statement on extending tariff exemptions led to a continued upward trend in the equity index. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It was advisable to sell the MO2509 put option with an exercise price around 6400 at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [3] Treasury Bonds - The current stage of bond futures was suppressed by the strong performance of equities, and the overall sentiment was weak. Unilateral strategies suggested short - term waiting and focusing on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies could appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [3] Precious Metals - The macro news increased the volatility of gold prices, but there was still a possibility of a pulse - like rise. A bull spread portfolio could be constructed through gold call options at low prices after the price correction. The silver price was expected to maintain a range - bound shock and still had upward space. A bull spread strategy could be constructed using silver put options at relatively low prices to earn premium income [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract oscillated weakly. It was expected to oscillate weakly, and the idea of shorting at high prices should be maintained [3] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel mills' inventory accumulation was not significant, providing support for steel prices. It was advisable to try to go long on dips. The iron ore shipments decreased and the port inventory and clearance increased, following the steel price fluctuations. It was advisable to go long on dips and short iron ore while going long on coking coal [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot auction was strong. The large - mine long - term agreement price increased. It was advisable to go long on dips. The sixth round of price increases for mainstream coking plants was launched, and there was still an expectation of further increases. It was advisable to go long on dips [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts improved, and the copper price strengthened slightly. The main contract reference range was 78,000 - 80,000. The market priced in a higher probability of interest rate cuts in September due to the slowdown of US inflation. The zinc price main contract reference range was 22,000 - 23,000. For tin, it was necessary to pay attention to the import situation from Myanmar and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price was mainly oscillating in the short term. It was advisable to wait and see unilaterally and expand the spread between October - November/December. For PX, it was treated as an oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels. For PTA, it was oscillating in the short term in the range of 4600 - 4800. For short - fiber, it was oscillating in the range of 6300 - 6500 [3] Agricultural Products - The US soybean export expectation improved. It was advisable to hold long positions in RM509. The palm oil was expected to have a large - amplitude shock after a strong upward rush, and the main contract might hit 9500. The overseas sugar supply outlook was relatively loose, and it was advisable to reduce the previous high - level short positions [3] Special Commodities - The glass industry was in a negative feedback process, and it was advisable to hold short positions. The rubber raw material price strengthened due to more rainfall in Thailand, and it was necessary to pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak season and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] New Energy Commodities - The polysilicon was oscillating downward with the increase of warehouse receipts. The lithium carbonate was affected by more news disturbances, and it was advisable to be cautious and wait and see [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Group 1: Futures Data - The Friday settlement price of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE is 108.450 with a weekly increase of 0.24%, and T2512.CFE is 108.425 with a 0.20% increase [7]. - The Friday settlement price of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures TF2509.CFE is 105.730 with a 0.14% increase, and TF2512.CFE is 105.785 with a 0.13% increase [7]. - The Friday settlement price of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures TS2509.CFE is 102.352 with a 0.03% increase, and TS2512.CFE is 102.394 with a - 0.01% change [7]. - The Friday settlement price of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE is 119.090 with a 0.82% increase, and TL2512.CFE is 118.820 with a 0.78% increase [7]. Group 2: Spread Data - The spread of T2509 - T2512 is 0.025 with a weekly increase of 4.000; TF2509 - TF2512 is - 0.055 with no weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 is - 0.042 with a - 0.432 weekly change [7]. - The spread of 2TS - T is 300.958 with a - 0.151 weekly change; 2TF - T is 103.010 with a 0.035 weekly change; TS - TF is 98.974 with a - 0.093 weekly change [7]. Group 3: Bond Yield Data - The Friday closing yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond is 1.37% with a - 1.49 BP weekly change; 2 - year is 1.42% with - 1.11 BP; 3 - year is 1.45% with - 2.39 BP; 5 - year is 1.57% with - 2.15 BP; 7 - year is 1.67% with - 2.21 BP; 10 - year is 1.71% with - 2.75 BP; 30 - year is 1.95% with - 2.70 BP [7]. - The Friday closing yield of the 1 - year CDB bond is 1.50% with a - 2.70 BP weekly change; 3 - year is 1.64% with - 2.25 BP; 5 - year is 1.67% with - 3.40 BP; 7 - year is 1.79% with - 3.20 BP; 10 - year is 1.76% with - 4.54 BP; 30 - year is 2.05% with - 2.70 BP [7]. Group 4: Funding Rate Data - The latest price of the inter - bank pledged repo rate DR001 is 1.31% with a - 20.35 BP weekly change; DR007 is 1.42% with - 22.81 BP; DR014 is 1.53% with - 13.51 BP [7]. - The latest price of the SHIBOR1M is 1.55% with a 0.40 BP weekly change; SHIBOR3M is 1.56% with a 0.40 BP weekly change [7].

Report Summary Core Information - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties dated July 24, 2025, with data from Wind, Mysteel, and GF Futures Research Institute [2][3][4] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF509) has a futures price of 5878, a basis rate of 1.38%, and a historical quantile of 63.70% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM509) has a futures price of 6020, a basis rate of 82, and a historical quantile of 40.50% [1] - HRB400 20mm rebar (RB2510) futures price is 3380, with a basis rate of 0.35% and a historical quantile of 22.40% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510) futures price is 3438 [1] - Iron ore (I2509) futures price is 843, with a basis rate of - 12.15% and a historical quantile of 27.50% [1] - Coke (J2509) futures price is 1500, with a basis rate of 3.47% [1] - Coking coal (JM2509) futures price is 1053, with a basis rate of - 83 and a historical quantile of 2.40% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509) has a futures price of 79790, a basis rate of 0.25%, and a historical quantile of 64.16% [1] - Aluminum (AL2509) futures price is 20850, with a basis rate of 0.29% and a historical quantile of 65.83% [1] - Alumina (AO2509) futures price is 3239, with a basis rate of - 3.45% and a historical quantile of 14.75% [1] - Zinc (ZN2509) futures price is 22750, with a basis rate of - 0.98% and a historical quantile of 8.75% [1] - Tin (SN2508) futures price is 268900, with a basis rate of 0.13% and a historical quantile of 58.12% [1] - Nickel (NI5509) futures price is 123450, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 59.16% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2509) futures price is 13070, with a basis rate of 1.32% and a historical quantile of 37.98% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510) has a futures price of 792.9, a basis rate of - 0.59%, and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - Silver (AG2510) futures price is 9475.0, with a basis rate of - 0.18% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2509) has a futures price of 2920, a basis rate of - 5.65%, and a historical quantile of 5.20% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2509) futures price is 8150, with a basis rate of 0.94% and a historical quantile of 6.80% [1] - Palm oil (P2509) futures price is 9040, with a basis rate of 0.51% and a historical quantile of 21.90% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM509) futures price is 2758.0, with a basis rate of - 4.64% and a historical quantile of 13.10% [1] - Rapeseed oil (O1509) futures price is 9580, with a basis rate of 1.31% and a historical quantile of 48.00% [1] - Corn (C2509) futures price is 2360, with a basis rate of 1.68% and a historical quantile of 66.20% [1] - Corn starch (CS2509) futures price is 2675.0, with a basis rate of 2.43% and a historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - Live pigs (LH2509) futures price is 14590.0, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 36.40% [1] - Eggs (JD2509) futures price is 3220, with a basis rate of - 11.47% and a historical quantile of 8.60% [1] - Cotton (CF509) futures price is 15411, with a basis rate of 8.68% and a historical quantile of 84.80% [1] - Sugar (SR509) futures price is 6120, with a basis rate of 4.90% and a historical quantile of 55.00% [1] - Apples (AP510) futures price is 7956.0, with a basis rate of 51.30% [1] - Red dates (C1601) futures price is 8300, with a basis rate of - 2166% and a historical quantile of 7.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX509) has a futures price of 6860.0, a basis rate of 1.03%, and a historical quantile of 48.90% [1] - PTA (TA509) futures price is 4784.0, with a basis rate of - 0.08% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2509) futures price is 4436.0, with a basis rate of 1.44% and a historical quantile of 83.10% [1] - Polyester fiber (PF509) futures price is 6432.0, with a basis rate of 2.61% and a historical quantile of 79.60% [1] - Styrene (EB2509) futures price is 7397.0, with a basis rate of 0.72% and a historical quantile of 37.70% [1] - Methanol (MA509) futures price is 2411.0, with a basis rate of 0.17% and a historical quantile of 42.00% [1] - Urea (UR509) futures price is 1773.0, with a basis rate of 3.21% and a historical quantile of 29.80% [1] - LLDPE (L2509) futures price is 7288.0, with a basis rate of - 0.11% and a historical quantile of 17.90% [1] - PP (PP2509) futures price is 7096.0, with a basis rate of 0.55% and a historical quantile of 32.50% [1] - PVC (V2509) futures price is 5070.0, with a basis rate of - 1.5% and a historical quantile of 59.80% [1] - Caustic soda (SH209) futures price is 2593.8, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 41.80% [1] - LPG (PG2509) futures price is 4548.0, with a basis rate of 14.65% and a historical quantile of 74.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2509) futures price is 3845.0, with a basis rate of 6.98% and a historical quantile of 86.30% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2509) futures price is 11875.0, with a basis rate of 1.05% and a historical quantile of 41.50% [1] - Glass (FG509) futures price is 1168.0, with a basis rate of - 3.68% and a historical quantile of 51.05% [1] - Soda ash (SA509) futures price is 1338.0, with a basis rate of - 0.75% and a historical quantile of 26.68% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2509) futures price is 14950.0, with a basis rate of - 0.37% and a historical quantile of 91.66% [1] Financial Futures - IF2509.CFE has a futures price of 4119.8, a basis rate of - 0.26%, and a historical quantile of 35.20% [1] - IH2509.CFE futures price is 2802.8, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 67.10% [1] - IC2509.CFE futures price is 6196.8, with a basis rate of - 1.25% and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - IM2509.CFE futures price is 6607.2, with a basis rate of - 1.6% and a historical quantile of 11.80% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2509) futures price is 102.38, with a basis rate of - 0.01% and a historical quantile of 23.40% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2509) futures price is 100.75, with a basis rate of 0.00% and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2509) futures price is 100.89, with a basis rate of 0.02% and a historical quantile of 17.80% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2509) futures price is 119.35, with a basis rate of 0.22% and a historical quantile of 34.60% [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating, but offers specific investment suggestions for various commodities: - **Bullish**: EC08 in the container shipping index (European line), iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, PX, etc. [2] - **Cautiously Bullish**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2507, IM2509 in the stock index [2] - **Bearish**: PP2509, MA2509, SR2509, JD2508, etc. [2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: RB2510 in the steel sector [2] - **Neutral**: T2509, TF2509, TS2509 in the Treasury bond market, etc. [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. trade policy negotiation window has arrived, and the index has broken through the upper - edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions [2]. - The short - term volatility range of T2509 is expected to be between 108.8 - 109.2, and the short - term Treasury bond market may show a narrow - range shock [2]. - Gold prices are affected by U.S. inflation and tariffs, and silver prices fluctuate in the range of 36 - 37 dollars [2]. - The upward space of oil prices is limited due to the stalemate between geopolitical risk premiums and inventory accumulation [2]. - The supply - demand situation of different commodities varies, and prices are affected by factors such as cost, demand, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market is testing key positions, with resistance above. Consider using a bull spread strategy by buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options [2]. Treasury Bond - With the bottoming of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the short - term Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range shock. Unilateral strategies suggest appropriate dip - buying, and curve strategies recommend paying attention to steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are affected by U.S. tariffs, maintaining around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above $790. Silver prices fluctuate between $36 - 37 [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC08 main contract is bullish on a cautious basis, and the upward trend is shown on the disk [2]. Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Consider long - materials and short - raw - materials arbitrage operations [2]. Black Metals - The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Consider dip - buying [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - The soft squeeze logic of LME copper has weakened. The 232 investigation is expected to be finalized at the end of July. The main contract of copper is expected to be in the range of 76,000 - 79,500 [2]. Energy - The upward space of oil prices is limited. Adopt a short - term trading strategy. For different energy products, pay attention to factors such as demand, cost, and policies [2]. Chemicals - The supply - demand situation of different chemicals varies. For example, PX is boosted in the short - term, while PTA has cost support under weak supply - demand expectations [2]. Agricultural Products - The prices of different agricultural products show different trends. For example, sugar prices are bearish on rebounds, while cotton prices are short - term bullish and medium - term bearish [2]. Special Commodities - The glass market is affected by the warming macro - atmosphere, and the rubber market has a weakening fundamental expectation [2]. New Energy - The spot price of polysilicon is further raised, and the lithium carbonate futures price maintains a relatively strong operation with macro - risks and fundamental pressures [2].

1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro situation is improving, driving up risk appetite, but different varieties in various sectors show diverse trends and require corresponding investment strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Equity Index**: The hedging sector is strong, and the overall equity index is adjusting downward. The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center is moving up. Be cautious of chasing high [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: At the beginning of the month, the capital interest rate continued to decline, and the sentiment of treasury bond futures was strong, but the market temporarily lacked the impetus to break through the previous situation [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations again, suppressing the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut. The gold price fluctuates in the range of $3300 - 3400, and the silver price fluctuates in the range of $36 - 37 [3]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC disk shows a shock, and the EC08 main contract fluctuates in the range of 1800 - 2000 [3]. - **Steel and Black Metals**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. The black sentiment has improved, and the anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. The coal mine's resumption of production is expected to strengthen, and the spot is running strongly [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The copper price is difficult to weaken without the implementation of the 232 investigation. The high copper price restrains downstream procurement. The alumina has frequent ore - end disturbances, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Macroeconomic uncertainty and OPEC's production increase expectations drag down the disk center of gravity. Attention should be paid to the impact of summer demand changes on the market [3]. - **Chemicals**: The sentiment side is more dominant than the weak fundamentals. The supply - side optimization expectation drives the market, but there are also problems such as high valuation and weak demand expectations [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oils**: The overall trend of oils and fats is a narrow - range shock adjustment. The overseas sugar supply outlook is relatively loose, and the downstream cotton market remains weak [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The entry of secondary fattening and the reduction of group supply make the spot sentiment strong [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass and Rubber**: The market sentiment of glass has improved at the beginning of the month. The rubber price is boosted by the macro recovery and storage news, but the fundamental weakening is expected [3]. - **New Energy Materials**: The polycrystalline silicon has no further positive factors, and the lithium carbonate disk maintains a relatively strong trend under the influence of sentiment [3].