1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and operation suggestions for various commodities on August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Core Views - The Sino-US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the central political bureau meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, affecting the financial and commodity markets [3] - The inflation in the US remained moderate, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar declined, which had an impact on the prices of gold, silver and other commodities [3] Group 3: Variety Analysis and Operation Suggestions Equity Index - The Sino - US joint statement on extending tariff exemptions led to a continued upward trend in the equity index. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It was advisable to sell the MO2509 put option with an exercise price around 6400 at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [3] Treasury Bonds - The current stage of bond futures was suppressed by the strong performance of equities, and the overall sentiment was weak. Unilateral strategies suggested short - term waiting and focusing on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies could appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [3] Precious Metals - The macro news increased the volatility of gold prices, but there was still a possibility of a pulse - like rise. A bull spread portfolio could be constructed through gold call options at low prices after the price correction. The silver price was expected to maintain a range - bound shock and still had upward space. A bull spread strategy could be constructed using silver put options at relatively low prices to earn premium income [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract oscillated weakly. It was expected to oscillate weakly, and the idea of shorting at high prices should be maintained [3] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel mills' inventory accumulation was not significant, providing support for steel prices. It was advisable to try to go long on dips. The iron ore shipments decreased and the port inventory and clearance increased, following the steel price fluctuations. It was advisable to go long on dips and short iron ore while going long on coking coal [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot auction was strong. The large - mine long - term agreement price increased. It was advisable to go long on dips. The sixth round of price increases for mainstream coking plants was launched, and there was still an expectation of further increases. It was advisable to go long on dips [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts improved, and the copper price strengthened slightly. The main contract reference range was 78,000 - 80,000. The market priced in a higher probability of interest rate cuts in September due to the slowdown of US inflation. The zinc price main contract reference range was 22,000 - 23,000. For tin, it was necessary to pay attention to the import situation from Myanmar and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price was mainly oscillating in the short term. It was advisable to wait and see unilaterally and expand the spread between October - November/December. For PX, it was treated as an oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels. For PTA, it was oscillating in the short term in the range of 4600 - 4800. For short - fiber, it was oscillating in the range of 6300 - 6500 [3] Agricultural Products - The US soybean export expectation improved. It was advisable to hold long positions in RM509. The palm oil was expected to have a large - amplitude shock after a strong upward rush, and the main contract might hit 9500. The overseas sugar supply outlook was relatively loose, and it was advisable to reduce the previous high - level short positions [3] Special Commodities - The glass industry was in a negative feedback process, and it was advisable to hold short positions. The rubber raw material price strengthened due to more rainfall in Thailand, and it was necessary to pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak season and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] New Energy Commodities - The polysilicon was oscillating downward with the increase of warehouse receipts. The lithium carbonate was affected by more news disturbances, and it was advisable to be cautious and wait and see [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures varieties based on their market conditions and influencing factors, including macro - news, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. The strategies range from short - term trading to long - term position - holding, and different trading strategies such as bull - spread, option trading, and spread trading are proposed for different situations [2][3]. Summary by Related Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the second round of Sino - US trade talks extended tariff exemptions and the Politburo meeting, the TMT sector led the upward movement, and small and medium - cap stocks rose significantly. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price near 6300 on MO2509 and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and focusing on Sino - US talks and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies can appropriately bet on short - term trading opportunities. Short - term treasury bond futures may fluctuate within a range waiting for a direction [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold price fluctuations increase due to macro - news, but there is still a possibility of a pulse rise. It is recommended to build a bull - spread portfolio using gold call options at a low price after a correction. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate within a range with upward potential. Use silver put options to build a bull - spread strategy at a relatively low position to earn premium income [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling approach [2]. Black Futures - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are supported by limited inventory accumulation in steel mills. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. Iron ore prices follow steel prices, and it is recommended to go long on dips and adopt a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. Coking coal prices can be bought on dips, and coke prices can also be bought on dips as there is still an expectation of price increases [2]. Non - ferrous Metals Futures - **Copper**: The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 78000 - 79500 [2]. - **Alumina**: The warehouse receipt volume has increased, and the medium - term oversupply trend remains unchanged, with the main contract reference range of 3000 - 3400 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fluctuate within a narrow range, and the spot market is weak with a large discount. The main contract reference range is 20000 - 21000 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: For other non - ferrous metals such as zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel, they are expected to have different price trends and trading strategies according to their respective fundamentals [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on the progress of US - Russia leadership negotiations, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait for the geopolitical situation to become clearer before going long on dips. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: For products like urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc., different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and price trends [3]. Agricultural Futures - **Grains and Oils**: For soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand changes, export expectations, and inventory levels [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: For products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, etc., trading suggestions are given based on their market conditions [3]. Special and New Energy Futures - **Special Commodities**: For glass, rubber, industrial silicon, etc., trading strategies are proposed according to their market trends and influencing factors [3]. - **New Energy Commodities**: For polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, etc., trading suggestions are provided based on their price movements and market news [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: EC2508 (Container Shipping Index - European Line), T2509, TF2509, TS2509 (Treasury Bonds), AU2510, AG2510 (Precious Metals), RB2510, I2509, JM2509, J2509 (Black Metals), SH2509 (Caustic Soda), M2509, RM509 (Meals), P2509, Y25 (Fats and Oils), CF2509 (Cotton) [2] - **Bearish**: FH2509 (Hogs), SR2509 (Sugar), JD2509 (Eggs), SA2509 (Soda Ash), FG2509 (Glass), RU2509 (Rubber) [2] - **Neutral**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2507, IM2509 (Stock Index Futures), EC2508 (Container Shipping Index - European Line) (for unilateral operation), RB2510 (for unilateral operation), CU2508, AO2509, AL2508, AD2511, ZN2508, SN2508, NI2508, SS2508 (Non - ferrous Metals), UR2509, PX2509, TA2509, PF2508, PR2509, EG2509, V2509, BZ2603, EB2508, BR2508, LLDPE2509, PP2509, MA2509 (Energy and Chemicals), C2509 (Corn), AP2510 (Apples), CJ2601 (Jujubes), PK2510 (Peanuts), Si2509 (Industrial Silicon), PS2507 (Polysilicon), LC2509 (Lithium Carbonate) [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Entering a new window for US trade policy negotiations, the index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, with the central position continuing to rise. However, caution is needed when testing key positions. The market shows a structural pattern with sector rotation and shocks [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's increased purchase of new - style reverse repurchase shows a caring attitude, driving the bond market sentiment to improve. The performance of the capital market during the tax period needs further observation [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The gold price remains in a high - level shock above $3300 per ounce, with certain support at the 60 - day moving average. Silver may have phased impulse - type rises, but chasing high prices should be cautious [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the 12 - contract is bullish [2]. - **Black Metals**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved. Steel mills' restocking is supported, and the prices of coking coal, coke, and iron ore are expected to rise [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US restocking has ended, and non - US regions have returned to fundamental pricing. The medium - term oversupply pattern in the copper market remains unchanged [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The performance of different varieties varies. For example, the demand for industrial materials is weak, and the inventory situation is poor. The supply and demand of some chemical products are also facing different challenges [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices of different agricultural products are affected by factors such as import costs, supply and demand, and inventory. For example, the potential supply pressure of hogs is accumulating, and the price of sugar is expected to decline on rebounds [2]. - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass and rubber are affected by factors such as spot price changes and raw material supply [2]. - **New Energy**: The futures prices of polysilicon are rising in a shock, and the lithium carbonate market has support but also faces fundamental pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: The index has broken through the short - term shock range, but caution is needed at key positions. Suggested to wait and see for now, and consider interval operations and appropriate long - positions on dips for the unilateral strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's actions have improved market sentiment. Pay attention to the capital market and central bank's open - market operations. Consider appropriate curve - steepening strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a high - level shock, and silver may have phased rises. Consider buying on dips if the gold price breaks through the support level, but be cautious when chasing high prices [2]. **Commodity Futures** - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to be strongly volatile, bullish on the 12 - contract. Suggested to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider long - materials and short - raw - materials arbitrage [2]. - **Black Metals**: The sentiment has improved, and steel mills' restocking is supported. Suggested to go long on dips for iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US restocking has ended, and the copper market has a medium - term oversupply pattern. Pay attention to the support levels of different varieties [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different varieties have different supply - demand situations. For example, the demand for industrial materials is weak, and the supply of some chemical products is affected by factors such as device restarts and inventory [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices are affected by factors such as import costs, supply and demand, and inventory. Different trading strategies are suggested for different varieties [2]. - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass and rubber are affected by spot price changes and raw material supply. Suggested trading strategies include waiting and seeing and short - selling on highs [2]. - **New Energy**: The futures prices of polysilicon are rising in a shock, and the lithium carbonate market has support but also faces fundamental pressure. Suggested to wait and see [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating, but offers specific investment suggestions for various commodities: - **Bullish**: EC08 in the container shipping index (European line), iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, PX, etc. [2] - **Cautiously Bullish**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2507, IM2509 in the stock index [2] - **Bearish**: PP2509, MA2509, SR2509, JD2508, etc. [2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: RB2510 in the steel sector [2] - **Neutral**: T2509, TF2509, TS2509 in the Treasury bond market, etc. [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. trade policy negotiation window has arrived, and the index has broken through the upper - edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions [2]. - The short - term volatility range of T2509 is expected to be between 108.8 - 109.2, and the short - term Treasury bond market may show a narrow - range shock [2]. - Gold prices are affected by U.S. inflation and tariffs, and silver prices fluctuate in the range of 36 - 37 dollars [2]. - The upward space of oil prices is limited due to the stalemate between geopolitical risk premiums and inventory accumulation [2]. - The supply - demand situation of different commodities varies, and prices are affected by factors such as cost, demand, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market is testing key positions, with resistance above. Consider using a bull spread strategy by buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options [2]. Treasury Bond - With the bottoming of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the short - term Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range shock. Unilateral strategies suggest appropriate dip - buying, and curve strategies recommend paying attention to steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are affected by U.S. tariffs, maintaining around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above $790. Silver prices fluctuate between $36 - 37 [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC08 main contract is bullish on a cautious basis, and the upward trend is shown on the disk [2]. Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Consider long - materials and short - raw - materials arbitrage operations [2]. Black Metals - The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Consider dip - buying [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - The soft squeeze logic of LME copper has weakened. The 232 investigation is expected to be finalized at the end of July. The main contract of copper is expected to be in the range of 76,000 - 79,500 [2]. Energy - The upward space of oil prices is limited. Adopt a short - term trading strategy. For different energy products, pay attention to factors such as demand, cost, and policies [2]. Chemicals - The supply - demand situation of different chemicals varies. For example, PX is boosted in the short - term, while PTA has cost support under weak supply - demand expectations [2]. Agricultural Products - The prices of different agricultural products show different trends. For example, sugar prices are bearish on rebounds, while cotton prices are short - term bullish and medium - term bearish [2]. Special Commodities - The glass market is affected by the warming macro - atmosphere, and the rubber market has a weakening fundamental expectation [2]. New Energy - The spot price of polysilicon is further raised, and the lithium carbonate futures price maintains a relatively strong operation with macro - risks and fundamental pressures [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro situation is improving, driving up risk appetite, but different varieties in various sectors show diverse trends and require corresponding investment strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Equity Index**: The hedging sector is strong, and the overall equity index is adjusting downward. The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center is moving up. Be cautious of chasing high [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: At the beginning of the month, the capital interest rate continued to decline, and the sentiment of treasury bond futures was strong, but the market temporarily lacked the impetus to break through the previous situation [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations again, suppressing the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut. The gold price fluctuates in the range of $3300 - 3400, and the silver price fluctuates in the range of $36 - 37 [3]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC disk shows a shock, and the EC08 main contract fluctuates in the range of 1800 - 2000 [3]. - **Steel and Black Metals**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. The black sentiment has improved, and the anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. The coal mine's resumption of production is expected to strengthen, and the spot is running strongly [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The copper price is difficult to weaken without the implementation of the 232 investigation. The high copper price restrains downstream procurement. The alumina has frequent ore - end disturbances, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Macroeconomic uncertainty and OPEC's production increase expectations drag down the disk center of gravity. Attention should be paid to the impact of summer demand changes on the market [3]. - **Chemicals**: The sentiment side is more dominant than the weak fundamentals. The supply - side optimization expectation drives the market, but there are also problems such as high valuation and weak demand expectations [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oils**: The overall trend of oils and fats is a narrow - range shock adjustment. The overseas sugar supply outlook is relatively loose, and the downstream cotton market remains weak [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The entry of secondary fattening and the reduction of group supply make the spot sentiment strong [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass and Rubber**: The market sentiment of glass has improved at the beginning of the month. The rubber price is boosted by the macro recovery and storage news, but the fundamental weakening is expected [3]. - **New Energy Materials**: The polycrystalline silicon has no further positive factors, and the lithium carbonate disk maintains a relatively strong trend under the influence of sentiment [3].

欢迎关注微信公众号 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2509 | | 宏观形势好转带动风险偏好上行,指数已经突破短 | | | 股指 | 60955HII | 科技热度持续,中小盘指数再冲高 | 期震荡区间上沿,中枢上移过程中,谨慎追高风 | | | | IC2507 | | 险,但可轻仓卖出8-9月5900执行价MO期权收取 | | | | IM2509 | | 权利金。 | | | | 12509 TF2509 | 6月PMI环比略升,但内需仍需加力。跨月后资金利率或季节性 | 单边策略上,期债可适当逢调整配置多单。期现策 | | | 国质 | 6095ZS1 | 下行,7月上旬资金如果明显转松可能利好债市 | 略上,可以适当关注TS2509合约正套策略。适当 | | 金融 | | 6095711 | | 关注做陡曲线。 | | | | AU2508 | | 关注美国经济数据对美联储货币政策预期影响,金 | | | 贵金属 | AG2508 | 美元指数持续下行 贵金属止跌回升 | 价站稳60日均 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific operation suggestions for various commodities, which can be roughly summarized as follows: - **Buy**: Iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (in certain circumstances), urea, short - fiber, bottle - chip, soybean meal and rapeseed meal (short - term), live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar (short - term), glass, polysilicon (with caution), lithium carbonate [2] - **Sell**: Synthetic rubber, styrene, caustic soda (mid - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, sugar (rebound), cotton, eggs (near - month), apples, peanuts, pure membrane, rubber, industrial silicon [2] - **Hold/Observe**: Stock index futures, treasury bonds, precious metals, container shipping index, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (short - term), PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, styrene, caustic soda (short - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, soybean meal and rapeseed meal, live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, peanuts, glass, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate [2][4] 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The stock index has sector rotation and upward pressure. The bond market may have short - term fluctuations but remains generally strong. Gold and silver prices show different trends due to factors such as inflation data and macro - policies [2] - **Industrial Commodities**: Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory. The iron ore market has high - level iron water production and resilient terminal demand. The coal market has weak - stable spot prices and improved trading [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Different products have different trends, such as PTA and short - fiber with supply - demand changes and cost - related impacts [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, the price of live pigs is affected by early - stage diarrhea in piglets, and the price of sugar is affected by overseas supply prospects [2] - **Special Commodities**: Special commodities like glass and rubber are affected by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, glass has better spot market sales, and rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: Observe the discount state of index futures, recommend buying the deeply discounted 09 contracts of CSI 1000 on dips and selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contracts above 6300 to form a covered call portfolio [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: On the unilateral strategy, buy treasury bond futures on dips. On the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and consider steepening the yield curve [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuate between $3300 - 3400. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options. Silver prices are strongly oscillating between $36 - 37 [2] Industrial Commodities - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the steel rebar RB2510, consider the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production remains high, and terminal demand is resilient. Buy on dips with an upper pressure level around 720 [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal trading has improved, and the price is expected to rise. Coke prices are close to the bottom. Consider the long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy [2] Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is driven by fundamentals, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upper pressure of Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level of SC is in the range of [490, 500]. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA and short - fiber have supply - demand changes. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - fiber is expected to repair processing fees [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The diarrhea of piglets at the beginning of the year may affect subsequent supply, and the market sentiment is strong. Be cautiously bullish [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply prospects are relatively loose. Trade short on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot market sales are improving, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [2] - **Rubber**: The fundamental outlook is weakening, and short positions should be held if the price is above 14000 [2]