Key Takeaways NKE's Q4 wholesale revenues fell 9%, up from a 12% drop in Q3 and outperforming NIKE Direct's 14% decline.Product launches with DICK'S and JD helped boost sell-throughs and reignite wholesale momentum.Holiday order growth and retail support hint at a rebound, but tariffs and inventory issues pose risks.NIKE Inc.’s (NKE) wholesale business is showing early signs of momentum, even as the company navigates a broader reset under its “Win Now” strategy. In fourth-quarter fiscal 2025, wholesale reve ...

Core Viewpoint - Nike's stock experienced a significant increase of 16% following its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, marking the largest one-day percentage gain in several years [1] Financial Performance - The fourth-quarter results showed a revenue decline of 12% to $11.1 billion, surpassing expectations of $10.72 billion [3] - Gross margin contracted by 440 basis points to 40.3% due to increased discounts and a shift to the wholesale channel [3] - Earnings per share fell to $0.14 from $0.99 a year ago, slightly exceeding expectations of $0.12 [3] Future Guidance - Management provided guidance for the first quarter, expecting revenue to decline in the mid-single digits and gross margins to compress by 350 to 425 basis points, including a 100 basis point impact from tariffs [4][5] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses are projected to increase in low single digits, indicating a sharp fall in profits despite better-than-expected guidance [5] Operational Changes - CEO Elliott Hill emphasized an operational turnaround, including a refreshed management team and a realignment of leadership structures [8] - The company is focusing on revitalizing classic sneaker brands and has seen growth in key areas such as running, which grew in high-single digits [9] Market Relationships and Brand Engagement - Nike is improving wholesale relationships with key partners, leading to increased sell-through of products [10] - Local events, such as the After Dark run series, have helped to reignite brand excitement and boost sales [10] Analyst Sentiment - Following the stock surge, analysts have issued positive notes and price target increases, with HSBC upgrading the stock to buy [11] - Despite the challenges faced under former CEO John Donahoe, there is a belief on Wall Street that a turnaround is underway [11] Long-term Outlook - Even after the recent stock increase, Nike's stock remains nearly 60% down from its all-time high, with expectations that it may take years to return to previous levels [12] - Upcoming product launches, including Caitlin Clark's signature shoe and new products for the World Cup, are seen as potential positive catalysts for the company [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4, revenues decreased by 12% on a reported basis and 11% on a currency-neutral basis [28] - Gross margins declined by 440 basis points to 40.3% due to higher wholesale discounts and supply chain cost deleverage [28] - Earnings per share was $0.14, with full-year revenue down 10% on a reported basis [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nike Direct revenues were down 14%, with Nike Digital declining 26% and Nike Stores increasing by 2% [28] - In North America, Q4 revenue declined 11%, with Nike Direct down 14% and wholesale down 8% [31] - In EMEA, Q4 revenue declined 10%, with Nike Direct down 19% and wholesale down 4% [33] - Greater China saw a 20% revenue decline, with Nike Direct down 15% and wholesale down 24% [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America made progress in cleaning up the marketplace, with a focus on repositioning Nike Digital as a full-price model [31] - EMEA demonstrated growth in key performance dimensions, with women's sportswear footwear returning to growth [34] - APLA experienced a 3% revenue decline, with mixed results across countries [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing "WinNow" actions to reposition its brands and business for future growth, focusing on sport and innovation [26][27] - A new partnership with Amazon will feature a select assortment of footwear and apparel, aimed at expanding distribution [17] - The company is reorganizing into sport-focused teams to drive deeper relationships with athletes and enhance product innovation [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that Q4 results were not up to Nike's standards but expressed optimism about future improvements [7] - The company expects headwinds to revenue and gross margin to begin to moderate, with a clear path to recovery ahead [22][44] - Management emphasized the importance of inspiring and innovating for consumers, with a focus on returning to sustainable growth [25] Other Important Information - The company is facing new tariffs that are expected to increase costs by approximately $1 billion, with plans to mitigate this impact over time [42][43] - Inventory remains elevated but is being managed down, with a goal to exit the first half of fiscal 2026 in a healthy position [30][47] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the accelerated actions under your sport offense realignment? - The company is organizing into sport-obsessed teams to drive a relentless flow of innovative products across all brands, focusing on performance and sportswear [61][62] Question: What is the expected impact of tariffs in Q1? - The first quarter will see a larger impact from tariffs, but the company is confident in its ability to mitigate these over time as actions are implemented [74][77] Question: Are you expecting gross margin pressures to abate sequentially? - Margins are expected to remain under pressure in the first half of fiscal 2026, but moderation is anticipated in the second half [79][80] Question: Can you discuss the timeline for recovery in the China marketplace? - The company believes in the long-term opportunity in China and is focused on inspiring consumers, although recovery will take time due to unique market characteristics [102]