Core Insights - The athletic apparel industry is characterized by competition between NIKE Inc. and lululemon athletica inc., with NIKE being a global leader and lululemon focusing on premium, direct-to-consumer offerings [1][2] NIKE Overview - NIKE holds a significant share in the consumer discretionary sector with a diverse portfolio including NIKE, Jordan, and Converse, appealing to various demographics [3] - The "Win Now" strategy launched in fiscal 2025 aims to enhance growth through sport-led innovation and product mix optimization, with key franchises being adjusted for better performance [4][5] - Despite a 10% year-over-year revenue decline in fiscal 2025, NIKE's holiday order book is improving, and the company is expected to benefit from a streamlined digital strategy and a strong product pipeline [6][7] lululemon Overview - lululemon is experiencing growth in the premium activewear segment, with fiscal 2025 first-quarter revenues increasing by 7% year-over-year to $2.4 billion and a gross margin expansion of 60 basis points to 58.3% [8][9] - The company operates 770 stores globally, with 41% of sales coming from digital channels, and is focusing on innovation and global expansion through new product launches [10][11] - lululemon's "Power of Three X2" strategy aims to grow product categories, expand internationally, and double digital revenues while maintaining premium pricing [12] Financial Performance - NIKE's fiscal 2026 sales and EPS estimates indicate year-over-year declines of 1.5% and 21.8%, respectively, reflecting recent challenges [14] - lululemon's fiscal 2025 sales are projected to grow by 5.7%, while EPS is expected to decline by 1% [15] - Year-to-date, NIKE shares have increased by 1.2%, while lululemon's stock has decreased by 37.9% [18] Valuation Insights - NIKE is trading at a forward P/E multiple of 42.85X, above its five-year median of 30.77X, while lululemon's forward P/E is at 15.83X, below its median of 30.78X [19][22] - lululemon's valuation appears attractive, supported by its growth strategy, while NIKE's higher valuation reflects its repositioning efforts for sustainable growth [22] Conclusion - NIKE is showing signs of recovery with improving wholesale momentum and a focus on performance products, despite downward revisions in earnings estimates [23] - lululemon, while facing near-term challenges, maintains a strong long-term strategy centered on innovation and international expansion [24] - Both companies represent significant players in the activewear market, with NIKE offering stability and lululemon presenting growth potential at a more favorable valuation [25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Nike's management expects a narrowing of revenue decline to a mid-single-digit percentage in Q1 of FY2026, following an 11% year-over-year decline in Q4 of FY2025 [1] - Nike's revenue for Q4 FY2025 decreased by 11% year-over-year, exceeding FactSet's expectation by 3.4%, with regional revenue declines in North America, EMEA, Greater China, and Asia-Pacific-Latin America [1][2] - Inventory levels remained high, with a year-over-year change of 0% in Q4 FY2025, and Nike plans to continue reducing inventory over the next two quarters [1] Group 2 - Management anticipates a year-over-year revenue decline of mid-single digits for Q1 FY2026, with gross margin expected to decrease by 350-425 basis points, including a 100 basis point negative impact from tariffs [2] - The increase in wholesale holiday orders is offset by declines in the Greater China region, with apparel and footwear categories showing year-over-year declines of 9% and 12%, respectively [2] - Macquarie believes that approximately $1 billion in incremental tariff costs will be alleviated through optimizing sourcing and production distribution, reducing the import share from China, and phased price increases starting in Fall 2025 [2] Group 3 - In the Greater China region, Nike's direct business revenue declined by 15% year-over-year, with digital and store sales down 31% and 6%, respectively [3] - The decline in wholesale revenue by 24% year-over-year is expected to relieve pressure on retailers like Tmall [3] - Efforts to revitalize the Chinese market will take time, with deeper resets leading to increased discounts and reduced supply, as evidenced by an 11% year-over-year decline in inventory [3] Group 4 - The report maintains an underperform rating for Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings and Kwan Hung Holdings, despite ongoing revenue challenges for Nike in China [4] - Tmall is rated outperform with a target price of HKD 3.70, as competition from domestic and emerging international brands may lead to more discounts [4] - Yue Yuen is rated underperform with a target price of HKD 9.60, facing slow recovery in brand client orders and adverse impacts from raw material costs and foreign exchange [4]

编者按：近期，麦格理发布研究报告指出，随着耐克在中国持续调整，安踏体育整体有望获得市场份额增长。报告主要内容 如下： 耐克管理层预计2026财年第一季度营收降幅将收窄至中等个位数水平，而2025财年第四季度同比降幅为11%。 在我们看来，对美国终端市场敞口较大的原始设备制造商可能更多地受到关税负担分摊的影响。 随着耐克在中国持续调整，安踏体育整体有望获得市场份额增长。滔搏可能会从耐克获得更多支持。 耐克(NKE US；未评级)公布2025财年第四季度剔除汇率影响后的营收同比下降11%(2025财年第三季度为-7%)，超过FactSet预 期3.4%。北美、欧洲-中东-非洲、大中华区、亚太-拉丁美洲的营收同比分别为-11%、-10%、-20%、-3%(2025财年第三季度分 别为-4%、-6%、-15%、-4%)。 与 2025财年第四季度相比，营收降幅将收窄。管理层预计2026财年第一季度营收同比下降中等个位数，毛利率同比下降350- 425个基点(包括关税带来的100个基点的负面影响)。批发假日订单同比增长，北美、欧洲-中东-非洲和亚太-拉丁美洲的增长被 大中华区抵消。按产品类别划分，服装同比下降9%(20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nike's stock experienced a significant rally of nearly 15% following its fourth-quarter earnings report, despite reporting a 12% drop in revenue and an 86% decline in profits, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a potential recovery story [1][2]. Financial Performance - Nike reported quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, surpassing analyst expectations, which signals management's control over the business [3]. - The company's inventories remained flat year-over-year at $7.5 billion, a positive sign as it indicates effective inventory management and the ability to sell products at full price [4][5]. Strategic Developments - Nike introduced a new strategy called "sport offense," aimed at revitalizing its market position and focusing on innovative product launches [6][9]. - The company is intentionally reducing marketing for older sneaker lines, leading to a 26% drop in direct-to-consumer digital sales, which is viewed as a necessary short-term sacrifice for long-term gains [7][8]. Market Outlook - Analysts have upgraded their outlook on Nike, reflecting a growing belief in the company's recovery potential, with an average price target of $77.19 and some as high as $115.00 [9][10][11]. - The market is now focusing on Nike's comeback plan, moving past its historical struggles, which is seen as a vote of confidence in the company's future [10][11].

Nike (NKE -1.36%) stock jumped 16% on Friday following its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report the night before. That move would be the biggest one-day percentage gain for the stock in several years.Nike has been in a downward spiral since its peak in 2021 as a strategic shift toward the direct-to-consumer channel under former CEO John Donahoe flopped. However, after offering guidance for the first quarter of the new fiscal year that topped expectations, management seemed to give investors a ray of hope f ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月28日 纺织服装海外跟踪系列六十一 耐克管理层指引最差时间已过，2026 财年有望逐季改善 行业研究·行业快评 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 事项： 公司公告：2025年6月27日，耐克披露截至2025年5月31日的2025财年及第四季度业绩：2025财年公司实现 收入463亿美元，同比-10%，不变汇率口径-9%；第四季度实现收入111亿美元，同比-12%，不变汇率-11%。 国信纺服观点：1）业绩和指引核心观点：FY2025Q4 收入超出彭博一致预期和管理层指引，最差时期已过， Win Now 战略及关税负面影响在 FY2026 有望逐季缓解；2）FY2025 业绩：收入和利润小幅超出彭博一致预 期，大中华区需求疲软形成拖累，部分地区库存去化效果显著，库存将于 FY26H1 末达到健康水平；3） ...

Core Viewpoint - Nike's stock surged 17% after the company indicated that it has overcome the worst of its struggles, following a better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report [1][2] Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter, Nike experienced a 12% drop in sales and an 86% decline in net income, with profit margins also decreasing [2] - The company reported that sales of classic products like Air Force 1, Air Jordan 1, and Dunks fell over 20% year-over-year, with a 30% decline in the fourth quarter alone, impacting sales by nearly $1 billion [9] Turnaround Strategy - CEO Elliott Hill emphasized that the company is beginning to see the effects of its turnaround plan, "Win Now," and expects business results to improve moving forward [3][4] - Nike is focusing on new product launches and efforts to regain wholesale partners, including selling on Amazon for the first time since 2019 and targeting female shoppers [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the earnings report, several banks issued positive commentary, with HSBC upgrading Nike to a "buy" rating and raising its price target to $80, indicating a potential 28% upside [5] - Analyst Erwan Rambourg noted that there is tangible evidence of a potential sales rebound for Nike, despite challenges such as tariffs [6] Future Outlook - Nike anticipates a mid-single-digit percentage decline in sales for the current quarter, aligning with Wall Street's expectations of a 7% drop [7] - The company expects profits to remain under pressure through the first half of fiscal 2026 due to inventory clearance and higher tariff costs, with improvements anticipated in the second half [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights the emotional connection between Nike's CEO Elliott Hill and Rory McIlroy's recent golf victory, which symbolizes hope and resilience for the company amidst its struggles [1][3] - Nike has faced significant challenges, including a 12% decline in sales and an 86% drop in profits for the fourth quarter, leading to a nearly 40% decrease in stock price over the past year [2][5] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Nike reported global revenue of $46.3 billion, down from $51.4 billion in 2024, with Greater China revenue decreasing from $7.5 billion to $6.585 billion [10] - The diluted earnings per share for fiscal year 2025 was $2.16, a 42% decline [10] - In the fourth quarter, North America revenue fell by 11%, EMEA by 10%, Greater China by 20%, and APLA by 3%, with EBIT declining across all regions, particularly in Greater China by 45% [10][14] Strategic Changes - Elliott Hill has initiated significant changes since taking over as CEO, including a shift back to focusing on athletic performance and rebuilding relationships with wholesale partners [10][11] - The company is implementing price increases in the U.S. to counteract tariff pressures and is reducing reliance on Chinese exports for footwear [7][16] - Nike aims to restore double-digit operating profit margins and expects a decrease in sales decline for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 compared to the 12% drop in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 [7][10] Market Challenges - The Greater China market remains a significant challenge, with a 20% revenue decline attributed to deeper inventory adjustments and high discounting [14] - Nike is focusing on enhancing its brand image through sports and is planning to introduce new product concepts tailored to the Chinese market [14][16] Product Focus - Nike's running category has shown signs of recovery, with a high single-digit growth in running products, driven by investments in models like Pegasus and Vomero [19][20] - The company is also launching new innovative products, including Vomero Plus and Vomero Premium, to strengthen its position in the competitive running market [20]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC has upgraded Nike's stock rating to 'Buy' from 'Hold' and increased the price target to $80 from $60, citing evidence of sales recovery and margin improvement [1] Group 1: Upgrade Factors - The new management team under CEO Elliott Hill is focusing on quality over quick fixes, which is expected to benefit Nike in the long term [2] - The repositioning of the digital channel as a full-price channel is highlighted as a positive change [2] - After two quarters of inventory clean-up, the brand assortment is expected to be current and exciting, despite challenges with the Dunk line [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Nike's stock surged 12% in after-hours trading following the earnings call, despite mixed results [3] - The company reported earnings per share of 14 cents, slightly above estimates, while sales declined 12% to $11.1 billion [3] - Net income fell 86% to $211 million from $1.5 billion in the previous year [3] Group 3: Challenges and Outlook - Nike faces headwinds from new tariffs on Chinese goods, expecting a $1 billion impact in fiscal 2026 [4] - Currently, 16% of Nike's supply chain runs through China, with plans to reduce this to high single digits by next summer as part of the 'Win Now' strategy [4] - HSBC's price target of $80 indicates a 28% upside from Nike's current trading price of $62.54, despite a year-to-date decline of 17.35% prior to the recent rally [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4, revenues decreased by 12% on a reported basis and 11% on a currency-neutral basis [28] - Gross margins declined by 440 basis points to 40.3% due to higher wholesale discounts and supply chain cost deleverage [28] - Earnings per share was $0.14, with full-year revenue down 10% on a reported basis [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nike Direct revenues were down 14%, with Nike Digital declining 26% and Nike Stores increasing by 2% [28] - In North America, Q4 revenue declined 11%, with Nike Direct down 14% and wholesale down 8% [31] - In EMEA, Q4 revenue declined 10%, with Nike Direct down 19% and wholesale down 4% [33] - Greater China saw a 20% revenue decline, with Nike Direct down 15% and wholesale down 24% [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America made progress in cleaning up the marketplace, with a focus on repositioning Nike Digital as a full-price model [31] - EMEA demonstrated growth in key performance dimensions, with women's sportswear footwear returning to growth [34] - APLA experienced a 3% revenue decline, with mixed results across countries [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing "WinNow" actions to reposition its brands and business for future growth, focusing on sport and innovation [26][27] - A new partnership with Amazon will feature a select assortment of footwear and apparel, aimed at expanding distribution [17] - The company is reorganizing into sport-focused teams to drive deeper relationships with athletes and enhance product innovation [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that Q4 results were not up to Nike's standards but expressed optimism about future improvements [7] - The company expects headwinds to revenue and gross margin to begin to moderate, with a clear path to recovery ahead [22][44] - Management emphasized the importance of inspiring and innovating for consumers, with a focus on returning to sustainable growth [25] Other Important Information - The company is facing new tariffs that are expected to increase costs by approximately $1 billion, with plans to mitigate this impact over time [42][43] - Inventory remains elevated but is being managed down, with a goal to exit the first half of fiscal 2026 in a healthy position [30][47] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the accelerated actions under your sport offense realignment? - The company is organizing into sport-obsessed teams to drive a relentless flow of innovative products across all brands, focusing on performance and sportswear [61][62] Question: What is the expected impact of tariffs in Q1? - The first quarter will see a larger impact from tariffs, but the company is confident in its ability to mitigate these over time as actions are implemented [74][77] Question: Are you expecting gross margin pressures to abate sequentially? - Margins are expected to remain under pressure in the first half of fiscal 2026, but moderation is anticipated in the second half [79][80] Question: Can you discuss the timeline for recovery in the China marketplace? - The company believes in the long-term opportunity in China and is focused on inspiring consumers, although recovery will take time due to unique market characteristics [102]