Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that CF Industries will report quarterly earnings of $2.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 0.9%, while revenues are expected to reach $1.73 billion, an increase of 10.2% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has not changed over the past 30 days, indicating that analysts have not revised their initial projections [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue and Sales Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- Ammonia' at $449.34 million, a year-over-year increase of 9.9% [5]. - 'Net Sales- Granular Urea' is projected to reach $502.54 million, indicating a 10% increase from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Net Sales- UAN (urea ammonium nitrate)' is expected to be $518.90 million, reflecting a 9.2% year-over-year change [5]. Sales Volume Estimates - 'Net Sales- AN (ammonium nitrate)' is projected at $104.53 million, a 6.7% increase from the previous year [6]. - Total 'Tons of product sold' is expected to reach 4,904 thousand tons, up from 4,875 thousand tons reported in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Sales volume by product - Ammonia' is estimated at 1,027 thousand tons, compared to 979 thousand tons a year ago [7]. - 'Sales volume by product - UAN' is projected at 1,754 thousand tons, slightly up from 1,748 thousand tons reported last year [7]. - 'Sales volume by product - Granular Urea' is expected to be 1,232 thousand tons, down from 1,251 thousand tons in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Sales volume by product - AN' is estimated at 356 thousand tons, compared to 340 thousand tons reported last year [9]. Average Selling Price Estimates - The average selling price per ton for 'Ammonia' is expected to be $437.91, up from $418.00 a year ago [9]. - The consensus estimate for 'Average selling price per ton - UAN' stands at $298.50, compared to $272.00 last year [10]. Stock Performance - CF shares have decreased by 1.6% over the past month, contrasting with a 1% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [11].

Core Insights - CF Industries reported a revenue of $1.66 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, marking a 13.1% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +9.34% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52 billion [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1.85, significantly higher than the $1.03 reported in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of +25.85% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.47 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - The average selling price per ton of Ammonia was $454, exceeding the five-analyst average estimate of $443.05 [4] - Total sales volume for UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) was 1,875 KTon, surpassing the five-analyst average estimate of 1,653.83 KTon [4] - Total product sales volume reached 5,004 KTon, compared to the five-analyst average estimate of 4,786.64 KTon [4] Net Sales Breakdown - Net Sales for Ammonia were reported at $520 million, significantly above the average estimate of $407.44 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +29.4% [4] - Net Sales for Granular Urea reached $439 million, slightly above the average estimate of $428.96 million, with a year-over-year change of +7.9% [4] - Net Sales for UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) were $470 million, exceeding the average estimate of $414.59 million, representing a year-over-year increase of +10.6% [4] - Net Sales for AN (ammonium nitrate) were $101 million, below the four-analyst average estimate of $113.40 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of -11.4% [4] - Net Sales for Other products were $133 million, slightly below the average estimate of $139.18 million, with a year-over-year change of +9% [4] Stock Performance - CF Industries' shares have returned +19.7% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +10.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries is expected to report a quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $1.47, marking a 42.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $1.52 billion, reflecting a 3.5% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Earnings Projections - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 7.8%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3] Key Metrics Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Net Sales - Ammonia' is $407.44 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 1.4% [4] - 'Net Sales - Granular Urea' is expected to be $428.96 million, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales - UAN (urea ammonium nitrate)' is projected at $414.59 million, indicating a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales - AN (ammonium nitrate)' is estimated to reach $113.40 million, showing a slight decline of 0.5% from the prior-year quarter [5] Sales Volume and Pricing - The estimated 'Average selling price per product ton - Ammonia' is $443.05, compared to $438 in the previous year [6] - 'Sales volume by product - UAN' is expected to be 1,653.83 KTon, up from 1,611 KTon year-over-year [6] - 'Sales volume by product - Granular Urea' is projected at 1,128.25 KTon, an increase from 1,092 KTon in the prior year [6] - 'Sales volume by product - Ammonia' is forecasted to be 914.12 KTon, slightly down from 918 KTon year-over-year [7] - Total 'Tons of product sold' is expected to reach 4,786.64 KTon, up from 4,524 KTon in the same quarter last year [7] Average Selling Prices - The average selling price per product ton for 'UAN' is estimated at $248.76, down from $264 in the previous year [8] - The average selling price for 'Granular Urea' is projected to be $380.58, compared to $373 year-over-year [8] - The average selling price for 'AN' is expected to be $282.22, down from $292 in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - Over the past month, CF shares have increased by 10.3%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which recorded a return of 0.4% [9]