Analog Semiconductors

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瑞银:模拟芯片更新_近期需求强劲,但提前采购现象明显
瑞银· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Analog Devices (ADI), Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Texas Instruments (TXN), while Onsemi (ON) is rated as "Neutral" [10][11]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong near-term demand, but there are signs of demand pull-ins due to tariff-related concerns, which is a key investor worry [2][3]. - Distributor inventory levels have normalized, particularly for Microchip Technology, which has seen a significant reduction in inventory [4][8]. - Pricing across the sector remains generally stable, with ON experiencing notable pricing pressure as it attempts to defend market share [2][4]. Semiconductor Purchaser Survey - The quarterly B2B survey indicates a net increase in demand of +75%, with expectations for future demand remaining strong at +73% [15][17]. - Nearly half of the respondents are exploring alternative supply sources outside the US or China, which is seen as a positive for European analog suppliers [3][18]. - The percentage of respondents indicating their analog semiconductor inventory is above target has significantly decreased, suggesting a healthier demand environment [3][15]. Inventory Financial Reporting Deep Dive - The report highlights that Analog Devices and Microchip Technology have lean inventory levels, positioning them well for an upcycle, while ON continues to face headwinds with high inventory levels [7][8]. - MCHP has successfully executed a turnaround plan, reducing inventory and production significantly [8][10]. - The overall inventory days for major companies like ADI, MCHP, and TXN are being closely monitored, with MCHP showing the largest decline in inventory [4][15]. Pricing Trends - Pricing for true analog semiconductors has remained flat, while power analog pricing has slightly declined, particularly for ON [4][10]. - The report notes that 68% of respondents have reported price increases, with expectations for further increases strengthening to 62% [17][18]. Market Outlook - The semiconductor market is expected to see a recovery, with TXN maintaining elevated inventory levels in anticipation of a sharp upcycle [8][10]. - The report suggests that the channel will likely begin rebuilding inventory, flipping the delta between sell-in and sell-through [8][10]. - Overall, the demand picture is improving, with significant increases in net demand expectations across various sectors, particularly in data centers [32][46].