Core Viewpoint - The quantum computing sector may be experiencing a bubble, characterized by inflated stock prices driven by investor hype and fear of missing out, which could lead to significant declines when the bubble bursts [1][8]. Quantum Computing Stocks Analysis - Rigetti Computing has seen its stock price increase over 6 times in the past year, but it reported a net loss of approximately $201 million in Q3 2025, with an 18% year-over-year revenue decline [5][6]. - D-Wave Quantum's stock has surged over 440% in the last year, yet it reported a net loss of $140 million despite doubling its revenue year-over-year in Q3 [6]. - IonQ, the largest pure-play quantum computing company with a market cap of around $19 billion, experienced a 222% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 but reported a substantial net loss of $1.1 billion [7]. Alternatives to Pure-Play Quantum Stocks - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and IBM are heavily investing in quantum computing while generating revenue from other business segments, making them safer investment options [9]. - Microsoft is advancing quantum computing through its Azure platform and topological superconductors, but its overall investment thesis remains strong without reliance on quantum computing [10]. - Amazon, a leader in e-commerce and cloud services, is also involved in quantum computing through AWS and has developed the Ocelet quantum computing chip [12]. - IBM continues to be a significant player in quantum computing while primarily generating revenue from software and consulting [13]. Best Post-Bubble Quantum Computing Stock - Alphabet is identified as the best quantum computing stock to hold if the bubble bursts, as it leads in quantum computing advancements with its Google Quantum AI and Willow chip, which has made significant strides in quantum error correction [14][16]. - Alphabet's business model does not depend on quantum computing for success, as it remains a dominant player in the search engine market and is experiencing rapid growth in Google Cloud [17]. - The valuation of Alphabet is more attractive compared to other tech giants, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3, making it a compelling option for investors looking to mitigate risks associated with a potential bubble burst [18].

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has significantly increased its capital expenditure (capex) plan for 2025 from $2 billion to $5 billion to meet the rising demand for AI infrastructure [1][10] - The company aims to exit 2025 with positive adjusted EBITDA at the group level, despite a projected adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.2 million for Q3, which is an improvement from a $45.9 million loss in the same quarter last year [3][10] - Financing for this aggressive expansion will be sourced through corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity, with plans to raise up to 25 million Class A shares [4][10] Capex Breakdown - The strategic capex allocation includes approximately 1% for securing land and power, 18-20% for building data centers, and around 80% for GPU deployment [2] - The accelerated investment is crucial for achieving ambitious annual recurring revenue (ARR) targets for 2025 and 2026, contingent on effective execution and sustained AI demand [5] Competitive Landscape - CoreWeave, a competitor, has reduced its 2025 capex guidance from $20-23 billion to $12-14 billion, while Microsoft is expected to increase its capex growth rate in fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025 [6][7][8] - Microsoft allocated $34.9 billion in capex in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with significant investments in GPUs and CPUs to support its Azure platform [8] Market Performance - Nebius shares have declined by 6% over the past month, contrasting with a minor decline of 0.2% in the Internet – Software and Services industry [11] - The price/book ratio for NBIS shares stands at 5.38X, exceeding the industry average of 3.96X [13]

Core Insights - IonQ's stock has experienced a significant decline after a strong start to the year, prompting investors to look for alternative quantum computing stocks [1] - Microsoft is highlighted as a leading player in the quantum computing space, leveraging its Azure platform and innovative technologies [2][3] Quantum Computing Developments - Microsoft has developed the Majorana 1 Quantum Processing Unit (QPU), the first quantum chip utilizing topological superconductors, marking a significant advancement in quantum technology [4] - The use of topoconductors allows Microsoft to create and control qubits, achieving two major milestones in its quantum computing roadmap [5] Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - Microsoft is highly favored by Wall Street, with 21% of analysts rating it as a "strong buy" and 77% as a "buy," reflecting a consensus 12-month price target indicating a potential upside of 28% [9][10] - The company is seen as a leader in quantum computing, with broad-based enthusiasm from analysts compared to other stocks in the sector [10] Broader Business Opportunities - The primary reason for investing in Microsoft is its substantial opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI), with a reported 40% year-over-year growth in Azure and cloud services revenue [12] - Microsoft's quantum computing initiative is viewed as a high-risk, high-reward venture, akin to a lottery ticket, but the company's overall business prospects remain strong [13]

Core Insights - The $40 billion acquisition of Aligned Data Centers by a BlackRock-led consortium highlights the critical importance of AI infrastructure in the ongoing AI revolution [2][12] - The deal signifies a substantial capital flow into the AI infrastructure sector, indicating strong growth potential for companies involved in data centers, chips, and cloud services [5][12] - The AI industry is characterized by high energy consumption and significant capital requirements, making the physical infrastructure essential for AI operations [3][12] Market & Opportunity - The AI revolution is not just about advanced algorithms but also about the underlying infrastructure that supports them, including data centers and specialized hardware [3][4] - Companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft are at the forefront, providing essential AI chips and cloud infrastructure, respectively, which are critical for AI development [5][6][12] - The investment theme extends beyond major players, capturing a range of companies that form the backbone of AI infrastructure, such as Super Micro Computer and Arista Networks [7][12] Key Companies - NVIDIA Corporation is recognized as the leader in AI chips, providing the necessary hardware and software ecosystem for AI applications [5][12] - Microsoft Corporation is a key player in the cloud space, developing AI-focused facilities through its Azure platform, which is crucial for hosting AI workloads [6][12] - BlackRock, as the world's largest asset manager, is making significant investments in AI infrastructure, signaling confidence in the long-term value of this sector [12] Growth Catalysts - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to grow significantly as AI becomes essential for competitive advantage across various industries [12] - The industry is still in the early stages of AI adoption, suggesting that the need for more data centers and computational power will continue to rise [12] - High barriers to entry, including specialized knowledge and substantial capital requirements, protect established companies from new entrants [12]