BDTI原油运价指数研究报告
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南华油品发运数据周报:原油发运量大幅增加,当周BDTI运价指数涨幅扩大-20250808
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 08:42
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index rebounded rapidly in the week of August 4 - 7, 2025, with a 9.33% week - on - week increase and a 7.7% year - on - year increase. The increase was more significant compared to the previous period, and it turned from a year - on - year decline to an increase [2]. - As of August 1, the crude oil shipping volume showed a pattern of "two increases and two decreases" among major countries. The shipping volumes of the US and Saudi Arabia increased by 20.37% and 28.73% respectively, while those of Russia and the UAE decreased by 4.83% and 4.27% respectively [2][12]. - As of August 6, the traffic volume of crude oil vessels in the Red Sea and Aden Gulf regions increased, which increased the demand for oil tankers and was significantly positive for the BDTI freight rate index [2]. 3. Summary by Section BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of August 7, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1007 points, with a 9.33% week - on - week increase and a 7.7% year - on - year increase. From a seasonal perspective, the freight rate increased significantly in that week [2][3]. Oil Tanker Shipping Distance - In the 29th week of 2025 (as of July 25), except for the Suez - max tankers whose shipping distance decreased by 23.26% week - on - week, the shipping distances of VLCC and Aframax tankers increased by 3.49% and 22.81% respectively week - on - week. Only the Aframax tankers had a significantly longer shipping distance compared to the same period last year [5]. - From August 2 - 6, 2025, the total traffic volume of oil tankers in the Red Sea increased. The average daily traffic volume was 791 vessels, 12 more than the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers decreased by 10, while the number of product tankers increased by 25. In the Red Sea, the number of VLCCs increased by 3, Suez - max tankers decreased by 20, and Aframax tankers increased by 28. - In the Aden Gulf, the traffic volume of oil tankers increased significantly, reaching 143 vessels, 25 more than the previous week. The number of crude oil tankers increased by 2, and product tankers increased by 22. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCCs increased by 2, Suez - max tankers increased by 1, and Aframax tankers increased by 9 [7]. Oil Tanker Capacity - As of August 1, 2025, 9423 oil tankers were scrapped, 2 more than the previous week and 83 more than the same period last year; the number of effective vessels was 18307, 15 more than the previous week and 449 more than the same period last year; the number of vessel deliveries was 196, unchanged from the previous week and 75 more than the same period last year; the number of vessel orders was 1356, 3 less than the previous week and 148 more than the same period last year; the number of vessels under construction was 212, 8 less than the previous week and 73 more than the same period last year [9]. - As of August 2, except for the Suez - max tankers whose port capacity increased by 141 vessels week - on - week, the port capacities of other tanker types decreased. The number of VLCCs at ports decreased by 223 to 2193, and the number of Aframax tankers decreased by 615 to 2656 [9]. Crude Oil Shipping Data Tracking - As of August 1, 2025, the crude oil shipping volumes of the US and Saudi Arabia increased week - on - week, while those of Russia and the UAE decreased. The US crude oil weekly shipping volume increased by 20.37%, Russia's decreased by 4.83%, Saudi Arabia's increased by 28.73%, and the UAE's decreased by 4.27% [12]. - In terms of shipping tanker types: - For the US, except for a 1.82% decrease in the demand for VLCCs, the demands for Aframax and Suez - max tankers increased by 77.26% and 17.69% respectively [12]. - For Russia, the demand for Aframax tankers decreased by 12.78%, while the demand for Suez - max tankers increased by 0.05% [12]. - For Saudi Arabia, the demands for VLCCs and Aframax tankers increased by 25.6% and 54.23% respectively, and the demand for Suez - max tankers increased by 50% [12]. - For the UAE, the demands for VLCCs and Aframax tankers decreased by 16.46% and 52.25% respectively, while the demand for Suez - max tankers increased by 129.79% [12][13]. - Seasonal analysis: - For the US, the demand for Suez - max tankers was the strongest, higher than the four - year average [15]. - For Russia, the demand for Suez - max tankers was extremely strong, while the demand for Aframax tankers was lower than in previous years [18]. - For Saudi Arabia, the demands for all three types of tankers increased, with the most significant increase in the demand for Aframax tankers [20]. - For the UAE, the demand for Suez - max tankers was the strongest [25]. - The total shipping volume of other countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased significantly, mainly due to a significant increase in Nigeria's shipping volume [28]. Crude Oil Arrivals - In the week, the crude oil arrivals in China, India, and the Netherlands all increased week - on - week. From a seasonal perspective, India's increase in crude oil arrivals was the smallest [28].